The Nuclear Iran Situation

[ArcadiaGP]

Report: Iran navy sends destroyer, another vessel to waters near Yemen amid Saudi-led strikes.

Let's get this inevitable Iran-Saudi war party started before the nukes are built.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Delivery systems is what thwarts most nuclear powers, even today. Iran is a,long way from the bomb, and even further away from being able to drop it where they want. I'm of the opinion that the possession of the bomb makes everybody safer, as long as the international community stays vigilant.

I'm of the opinion you're wrong on both counts: 1) "Delivery systems" no longer implies ballistic missiles as it used to in the 20th century. Al Qaeda proved that a "delivery system" can be improvised from an ordinary jet liner - or even a private plane. Smuggling is an ancient art and nuclear devices are no longer necessarily the size of "Fat Boy," requiring an "Enola Gay" to deliver them. 2) And, of course, our southern border is wide-open; any number of nuclear weapons could be "delivered" via cargo van or semi-trailer. 3) Vigilance on the part of the international community didn't work to give us a clear picture of Saddam Hussein's nuclear/chemical weapons program, apparently, nor did it managed to contain the North Korean's nuclear ambitions, despite their relative poverty compared to Iran. I seriously doubt that the "international community's vigilance" is going to prevent Iran from getting a nuke or deploying it, if they're willing to accept the retaliatory consequences - which it appears they are willing to accept in furtherance of their stated goals.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Iran Currently Needs Only Two to Three Months to Build a Nuclear Bomb

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Tom Cotton: Bombing Iran Would Take “Several Days,” Be Nothing Like Iraq War

 

[ArcadiaGP]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeVjM8VNSXk

Rand: "Our security is not threatened by Iran having one nuclear weapon."

Huh.

Also, Iran's military sites off-limits to inspectors

 

[Kutnupe14]

You forgot to determine if he is part of an oppressed class.

White Christian straight males?

 

[D-Ric902]

White Christian straight males?

no, they have priveledge
You mean other than

 

[Kutnupe14]

I'm of the opinion you're wrong on both counts: 1) "Delivery systems" no longer implies ballistic missiles as it used to in the 20th century. Al Qaeda proved that a "delivery system" can be improvised from an ordinary jet liner - or even a private plane. Smuggling is an ancient art and nuclear devices are no longer necessarily the size of "Fat Boy," requiring an "Enola Gay" to deliver them. 2) And, of course, our southern border is wide-open; any number of nuclear weapons could be "delivered" via cargo van or semi-trailer. 3) Vigilance on the part of the international community didn't work to give us a clear picture of Saddam Hussein's nuclear/chemical weapons program, apparently, nor did it managed to contain the North Korean's nuclear ambitions, despite their relative poverty compared to Iran. I seriously doubt that the "international community's vigilance" is going to prevent Iran from getting a nuke or deploying it, if they're willing to accept the retaliatory consequences - which it appears they are willing to accept in furtherance of their stated goals.

Ill stop short of saying it's impossible, but it is an extremely remote possibility that somebody is going sneak enough radioactive material on a plane, and use that as the delivery system. They DO check for that.
Nevertheless, Iran, again, has not proven itself to be irrational in its dealing on the world stage. They certainly aren't nearly in same realm as the nutcases in North Korea, who I will remind, actually does have the bomb, and an extreme hatred for Japan.

 

[D-Ric902]

Ill stop short of saying it's impossible, but it is an extremely remote possibility that somebody is going sneak enough radioactive material on a plane, and use that as the delivery system. They DO check for that.
Nevertheless, Iran, again, has not proven itself to be irrational in its dealing on the world stage. They certainly aren't nearly in same realm as the nutcases in North Korea, who I will remind, actually does have the bomb, and an extreme hatred for Japan.

WE check for that. Iran has been flying non stop to Venesuela, small flight to Mexico, coyote across the border.

Easy peasy

 

[longbow]

Report: Iran navy sends destroyer, another vessel to waters near Yemen amid Saudi-led strikes.

Let's get this inevitable Iran-Saudi war party started before the nukes are built.

the Saudi's have nukes! They are stored in Pakistan.

 

[longbow]

A crude "gun barrel" nuke device with all the timing circuits and controllers would easily be under 8,000 pounds based on what was done in WWII, I can think of a lot of ways to ship that in many different types of planes. To be honest they could get the physics package down to 4,000 pounds based current technology and easily get an 8 to 20 KT yield. The Norks got a 4 to 8 KT yield with crap worse than what Iran is playing with.

 

[D-Ric902]

A crude "gun barrel" nuke device with all the timing circuits and controllers would easily be under 8,000 pounds based on what was done in WWII, I can think of a lot of ways to ship that in many different types of planes. To be honest they could get the physics package down to 4,000 pounds based current technology and easily get an 8 to 20 KT yield. The Norks got a 4 to 8 KT yield with crap worse than what Iran is playing with.

An ADM (Atomic Demolition Munition) is man portable. Lot very large (about 1/3 kt) but enough.

M422 is purely mechanical (no electronics) weighs 242 lbs

M423 is electronic and weighs 290 lbs but much more difficult to get a reaction without firing it.

 

[Kutnupe14]

A crude "gun barrel" nuke device with all the timing circuits and controllers would easily be under 8,000 pounds based on what was done in WWII, I can think of a lot of ways to ship that in many different types of planes. To be honest they could get the physics package down to 4,000 pounds based current technology and easily get an 8 to 20 KT yield. The Norks got a 4 to 8 KT yield with crap worse than what Iran is playing with.

So if it's that easy (and I'm not disagreeing, btw), why hasn't someone used one of these devices?

 

[T.Lex]

So if it's that easy (and I'm not disagreeing, btw), why hasn't someone used one of these devices?

It is harder to make than chlorine gas.

 

[Kutnupe14]

It is harder to make than chlorine gas.

Lol

 

[T.Lex]

AWKward. Lol'ing at chlorine gas v. nukes.

Just to clarify (I'm pretty sure you understand the point, but for others who may be confused), it comes down to path of least resistance. If a tango (or fiscally conscious nation-state) is doing a feasibility analysis on the most effective weapon to use to create a mass casualty event, there are MUCH easier ways to accomplish it than nukes.

 

[Kutnupe14]

AWKward. Lol'ing at chlorine gas v. nukes.

Just to clarify (I'm pretty sure you understand the point, but for others who may be confused), it comes down to path of least resistance. If a tango (or fiscally conscious nation-state) is doing a feasibility analysis on the most effective weapon to use to create a mass casualty event, there are MUCH easier ways to accomplish it than nukes.

But apparently, to "wipe (someone) off the map," you have those who are willing to wait until they have a nuclear weapon, lol. I guess it's the international version of "keeping up with the Jones's."

 

[T.Lex]

But apparently, to "wipe (someone) off the map," you have those who are willing to wait until they have a nuclear weapon, lol. I guess it's the international version of "keeping up with the Jones's."

Oh, without a doubt.

Iran does have more resources to bring to bear on the situation, though. Kinda like the arms race a century ago to build bigger battleships (or any capital ship), a nuke can be considered a strategic investment.

But, not every nation-state has the resources or commitment to do it.

There are much cheaper alternatives.

 

[D-Ric902]

So if it's that easy (and I'm not disagreeing, btw), why hasn't someone used one of these devices?

Getting a couple hundred pounds of enriched uranium is a stumbling block. Chemical/biological is much easier to do

Give a "martyr" Ebola by way of certain countries, send him to NY and have him walk around Times Square and spit, sneeze, wipe his bodily fluids on as many things as possible before being discovered and dying.

even if it isn't very effective, the panic will do more damage than the disease

 

[T.Lex]

Ppptht ppphththt Is this thing on? Sibilance, sibilance.