The (Current year) General Political/Salma Hayek discussion Thread Part V

[printcraft]

 

[jamil]

Warren has put a price on her Medicare for All plan:

$52,000,000,000,000

That's fifty-two trillion.

Trillion

But middle-class taxes won't go up.

$52T? That can't be correct. The entire US GDP is what, something like $30T?

 

[T.Lex]

$52T? That can't be correct. The entire US GDP is what, something like $30T?

Her math is more like:
$52T = 271 electoral votes

 

[jamil]

Where did $52T come from?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...eed:+reuters/healthNews+(Reuters+Health+News)

It's $20.5T over 10 years.

The entire US budget is $4.4T this year. Still doesn't add up. She wants to tax corporations more. Wealthy more. I don't know why people haven't gotten this through their heads. Higher tax rates don't equate to higher tax revenues. She wants to gut DoD budget. I'm okay with trimming it, because it's too bloated with corporate welfare. But Gut? 600B per year, isn't gonna add up.

It can't be paid for.

 

[printcraft]

You guys know we can just print more money right?

 

[mmpsteve]

You guys know we can just print more money right?

Spoken like a true .... well ... Printer. You and I could both get rich just by printing the x-tra paper $$ needed.

.

 

[jamil]

I suppose they could maybe pull some keynesian magic out of their asses to sell this. And probably most of America will buy it.

 

[printcraft]

Spoken like a true .... well ... Printer. You and I could both get rich just by printing the x-tra paper $$ needed.

.

Just think of all the pressman jobs that would be created as a result and then we could tax them at 75% + and get even MORE money for medicare.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Pennsylvania Democrat: A Miscarriage Is “Just A Mess On A Napkin”

 

[jamil]

Why do people hate themselves so much? I kinda think humans are pretty cool.

 

[BugI02]

$52T? That can't be correct. The entire US GDP is what, something like $30T?

Quite often people go with the projected cost over ten years

15% of the $4.4 trillion FedGov expenditures are for medicare, and it covers 15% of the population. It would not be irrational to extrapolate to $4.4trillion (100% of expenditures) to cover 100% of the population, and since the 15% on traditional medicare pay at least $135.50 per month for coverage. There are 44million people on medicare, which leaves 329 - 44 = 285 million citizens who would be covered but are not paying in, for a shortfall of $1626 per year x 285million = $463billion.

$4.4trillion + $0.463trillion gets us to almost $4.9trillion

Maybe the other 300billion is for the necessary bureaucracy (death panels can't be cheap) or maybe its to cover the non-citizens who would also be eligible

 

[nonobaddog]

I get some different numbers

If the cost of medicare is 15% of $4.4 Trillion - then the cost is about $660 Billion
If the recipients are 15% of 329 million - then there are about 49,350,000 recipients
The cost per recipient would be about $13,374

Medicare recipients do not pay for medicare, they pay for about 12% of medicare.

Almost all working Americans pay medicare tax on income at 1.45%, employers also pay 1.45% for a sum of 2.9% medicare tax
Of course it is not this simple (Additional medicare tax for income over $200K - Net investment income tax at 3.8% over some level - exclusions - etc.)
But good enough for forum math
This tax sorta goes toward the shortfall.

If a recipient pays $135.50 per month or $1,626 per year - then the shortfall would be about $13,374 - $1,626 = $11,748 per recipient
The total shortfall for all current recipients would be about $11,748 * 49,350,000 = $517 Billion

If the medicare cost for each of the 279,650,000 non-recipients is the same $13,374 then that cost would be about $3.74 Trillion more than the current $0.66 Trillion if they were to become medicare recipients.

$4.4 Trillion current government expenditures plus $3.74 Trillion additional medicare cost gets us to about $8.14 Trillion total government expenditures per year

 

[nonobaddog]

Simplified

If 15% of the population costs 15% of $4.4 Trillion (breakdown $0.66 T for medicare and $3.74 T for other ****)
Then 100% of population would cost 100% of $4.4 Trillion (breakdown $4.4 T for medicare and $3.74 for other ****) New Total $8.14 T

 

[jamil]

2018 revenue was $3.33T. We spent something like $4.4T, so that’s short a Trillion dollars. How do they get to, let’s say $8T per year? Where is that extra revenue coming from? The military budget isn’t even $700B. I don’t think they could raise taxes enough to get that much revenue. That ***** has obviously never played simcity. The people will revolt.

 

[nonobaddog]

2018 revenue was $3.33T. We spent something like $4.4T, so that’s short a Trillion dollars. How do they get to, let’s say $8T per year? Where is that extra revenue coming from? The military budget isn’t even $700B. I don’t think they could raise taxes enough to get that much revenue. That ***** has obviously never played simcity. The people will revolt.

Congress would never pass that crap. Sure, the dumocraps in the House might but the Senate would save the country.
God help us if the dumocraps with their current thinking ever get control. But I'm hoping they will have to show some sanity before that could happen.

 

[Phase2]

2018 revenue was $3.33T. We spent something like $4.4T, so that’s short a Trillion dollars. How do they get to, let’s say $8T per year? Where is that extra revenue coming from? The military budget isn’t even $700B. I don’t think they could raise taxes enough to get that much revenue. That ***** has obviously never played simcity. The people will revolt.

Glad you asked. Someone has been crunching the numbers and the answers aren't comforting:

The Democratic plan for a 42% national sales tax

They actually list several ways to cover the funding gap.

• One way is a federal sales tax, which as you can see would be set at 42%. Of course, that would be like an instant 42% inflation on products, so expect sales, jobs and household budgets to crater.
• How about a 32% payroll tax? These are paid by companies directly to government, but companies have to find that money somewhere. Guess what will happen to employment...
• Raising all income tax rates by an additional 25%. (20% raises to 45%, etc).
• Cut all other government spending by 80% (welfare, military, federal worker salaries, etc.). I know. This one actually sounds pretty good, but it wouldn't be savings, it would merely be redirected to health care spending.

Of course you could take some combination of those or even find other options, but all means of handing healthcare over to the government are painful. Can you find healthcare coverage for less than 25% of your gross income? Then the government takeover isn't in your best interests.

 

[jamil]

Glad you asked. Someone has been crunching the numbers and the answers aren't comforting:

The Democratic plan for a 42% national sales tax

They actually list several ways to cover the funding gap.

• One way is a federal sales tax, which as you can see would be set at 42%. Of course, that would be like an instant 42% inflation on products, so expect sales, jobs and household budgets to crater.
• How about a 32% payroll tax? These are paid by companies directly to government, but companies have to find that money somewhere. Guess what will happen to employment...
• Raising all income tax rates by an additional 25%. (20% raises to 45%, etc).
• Cut all other government spending by 80% (welfare, military, federal worker salaries, etc.). I know. This one actually sounds pretty good, but it wouldn't be savings, it would merely be redirected to health care spending.

Of course you could take some combination of those or even find other options, but all means of handing healthcare over to the government are painful. Can you find healthcare for less than 25% of your gross income? Then the government takeover isn't in your best interests.

Well. If they did get that through I think we’d find gun ownership going way up among moderate Democrats.

 

[Dr.Midnight]

Glad you asked. Someone has been crunching the numbers and the answers aren't comforting:

The Democratic plan for a 42% national sales tax

They actually list several ways to cover the funding gap.

• One way is a federal sales tax, which as you can see would be set at 42%. Of course, that would be like an instant 42% inflation on products, so expect sales, jobs and household budgets to crater.
• How about a 32% payroll tax? These are paid by companies directly to government, but companies have to find that money somewhere. Guess what will happen to employment...
• Raising all income tax rates by an additional 25%. (20% raises to 45%, etc).
• Cut all other government spending by 80% (welfare, military, federal worker salaries, etc.). I know. This one actually sounds pretty good, but it wouldn't be savings, it would merely be redirected to health care spending.

Of course you could take some combination of those or even find other options, but all means of handing healthcare over to the government are painful. Can you find healthcare coverage for less than 25% of your gross income? Then the government takeover isn't in your best interests.

The notion that there are people that think this is a good idea is terrifying.

 

[jamil]

The notion that there are people that think this is a good idea is terrifying.

They’re gonna get their equity one way or the other.

 

[BugI02]

The notion that there are people that think this is a good idea is terrifying.

They’re gonna get their equity one way or the other.

Yeah, ones that I know are fond of pointing to the high rates of taxation during The Two, when we were all pulling together to defeat an existential threat that had attacked us pretty much without provocation

As if we would be willing to accept such a confiscatory tax rate to prop up the weak-minded, the lazy and the border jumpers among us. The only ones who support this pretty much have no skin in the game or think trading high taxes for $100k in college debt forgiveness is a good deal

We need to get these kids in the workforce and making money so they can feel the Bern