The 2016 General Election Thread

[ArcadiaGP]

hitlary is horrible.... everybody knows it, even the media that is IN THE BAG for hitlary, there is no denying that fact.
They know she will not have a high turn out.
You really don't see the connection in the media behind trying to drive turnout DOWN for trump?
Their ONLY hope is to keep people home.... this particular election is NOT about high voter turn out, that is the last thing they want.

With polls? No. Media isn't manipulating polls like some want to believe. Trump is just really, really unpopular.

However, with discrediting and belittling? That's definitely one way they may be trying to influence turnout. Posted elsewhere this morning about them trying to call Ryan Lochte a "Trump supporter", as though that explains his idiocy. Nah, he was always an idiot... but trying to make "idiot" and "Trump supporter" synonymous is certainly a strategy.

Mike Rowe covers a bit here:

Mike Rowe Criticizes Media For Calling Trump Voters Uneducated | The Daily Caller

 

[foszoe]

Reince says if Trump stays on course, he could lead in the polls by labor day.

Priebus: Trump could lead Clinton by Labor Day | TheHill

This poll stuff just sounds like a lot of can-kicking to me. "Nah he'll be good next week... ", "Nah just you wait until next month, he'll lead then...", "Dude, didn't I say polls don't matter?"

The only problem with that thesis is Trump can't stay on message that long for us to find out if it's true

 

[IndyDave1776]

According to Huffington, Michael Moore has conceded the election to Trump on Hillary's behalf:

5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

 

[printcraft]

See! Even old douche bag mike moore agrees with me. They are actively trying to suppress voter turnout.

 

[voidsherpa]

According to Huffington, Michael Moore has conceded the election to Trump on Hillary's behalf:

5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

I've been triggered.

 

[IndyDave1776]

I've been triggered.

Someone put you on Roy Rogers's horse?

 

[T.Lex]

Come on..... they are on record colluding with the demoncrats for hitlary.... They are party before ANYTHING else.

Wait. "They" are also on record colluding with Trump himself. They are RATINGS before anything else.

They are the propaganda arm of the democrat party, they can say whatever they want, their jobs are safe with or without a Trump presidency.

Ok, let's establish who "they" are. Clearly, the MSM is not as homogeneous as INGO thinks. Fox <> CSNBC

Similar thing was said of Rush Limbaugh back when george bush was elected...
The wizards of smart said that he would go away now because he no longer had bill clinton to beat up on.

I'm really not following the analogy. Are you saying Trump is like Bush?

 

[voidsherpa]

Someone put you on Roy Rogers's horse?

Nahh, your linked article made me physically sad cause of his disgusting liberalistic words.

 

[BugI02]

Penalties on employers... as in legit jail time, would end it. Most illegals aren't drug dealing violent people. They're good folks who did what probably most people, even INGO members, would do. Deny them opportunities, and give them to the people who should have them, Americans, and they'll stop coming here.

I am in complete agreement with Kut [looks around for Rod Serling]

 

[T.Lex]

I am in complete agreement with Kut [looks around for Rod Serling]

Yeah, it can be an odd, tingly feeling at first.

Kinda like your first... well... never mind.

 

[T.Lex]

Back to polling for a moment, here's a poll that didn't get much mainstream attention (if any), it isn't included in RCP:
Polling Institute at Saint Leo University ? Survey: Florida Looks Like It Will Support Clinton for President

Part of the problem is that it is online-only. (BTW, it shows HRC up double digits in FL.) Its "methodology" offers participants a dollar in their iTunes/Amazon account to respond to an online survey. They get ~1300 participants, which is a good number, but it is strictly online.

That's the kind of inherent statistical bias (to computer users, and even Mac users) that is suspect. It may turn out to be valid, but it will take several cycles to understand if it is a valid methodology.

That's a long way around to say that even the MSM tends to be skeptical of suspect polling methods. Especially when there are more conventional polls available.

ETA:
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp

A more traditional poll, with larger MOE consistent with the number of people polled, that also shows an almost double digit lead, ~2x the MOE.

 

[T.Lex]

So, more FL polling. A conventional poll from Florida Atlantic University has Trump ahead, right at the MOE (+2, +/- 2.7).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FAU_Florida_August.pdf

With 1,200 likely voters, that's a pretty good sized poll. Unclear if there was any normalizing or what the spread was of self-reporting Ds or Rs in the General Election poll. If they used the same calls that they used for the primaries, then it was actually heavier on Ds.

 

[printcraft]

Wait. "They" are also on record colluding with Trump himself. They are RATINGS before anything else.


The vast majority of the media, 90%+, are leftist ideologues who have little interest in the truth, only the agenda.
They don't care about the ratings, only the propaganda.
Their rating are in the tank compared to FOX but they keep the same format and attitude. They don't care about the ratings.

Ok, let's establish who "they" are. Clearly, the MSM is not as homogeneous as INGO thinks. Fox <> CSNBC

How many FOX like entities are there in the MSM outside of FOX?
Not many..... see the 90% left progressive above.


I'm really not following the analogy. Are you saying Trump is like Bush?

No, I'm saying that they will still be around broadcasting their leftist crap long after Trump is or is not elected president and gone.

.

 

[mrjarrell]

Johnson skeptical of TPP.

https://beinglibertarian.com/gary-johnson-im-skeptical-tpp/

 

[mrjarrell]

 

[nate77]

Johnson skeptical of TPP.

https://beinglibertarian.com/gary-johnson-im-skeptical-tpp/

FLIP FLOPPER!

Gary Johnson Now Supports TPP | Independent Political Report

 

[IndyDave1776]

Penalties on employers... as in legit jail time, would end it. Most illegals aren't drug dealing violent people. They're good folks who did what probably most people, even INGO members, would do. Deny them opportunities, and give them to the people who should have them, Americans, and they'll stop coming here.

I am in complete agreement with Kut [looks around for Rod Serling]

I am in limited agreement. I support doing so absolutely. It would definitely reduce the problem, but I am not convinced that the opportunities for, well, private work in form of a transaction directly between the illegal and the end user would stop. I am also not convinced that there isn't an incentive when we have courts ruling that the children of illegals who don't speak English are legally entitled to translators on the public dime, and assorted other factors which would encourage them overstaying the point most of us would consider them welcome. Further, even if it reached a point at which there is little to no incentive to enter the country illegally, that doesn't mean that there is any incentive for them to go back either.

 

[T.Lex]

So, did an exercise with the electoral map where I spitballed all the states where polling was within the MOE, going either direction, and called them neutral. The problem quickly revealed itself - those are generally red states.

When I reached 109 EC delegates unassigned, and HRC was still at 273, I stopped.

When Trump supporters say that polls don't matter, it is kinda because that has to be the position. The polls can't matter because if they did, it doesn't look good.

Now, Trump is a fighter. So, he can fight this out and make a bout of it. But, he'll have to change not only what he does but how he does it. I'm not sure he is capable of that.

 

[nate77]

So, did an exercise with the electoral map where I spitballed all the states where polling was within the MOE, going either direction, and called them neutral. The problem quickly revealed itself - those are generally red states.

When I reached 109 EC delegates unassigned, and HRC was still at 273, I stopped.

When Trump supporters say that polls don't matter, it is kinda because that has to be the position. The polls can't matter because if they did, it doesn't look good.

Now, Trump is a fighter. So, he can fight this out and make a bout of it. But, he'll have to change not only what he does but how he does it. I'm not sure he is capable of that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histo...s#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

Looks eerily similar to this years race, but check out the final result.

Of course, that was back before computer voting machines; now elections can be thrown with the push of a button.

 

[T.Lex]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histo...s#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

Looks eerily similar to this years race, but check out the final result.

Of course, that was back before computer voting machines; now elections can be thrown with the push of a button.

Looks more like 2012, 2000, if'n you ask me.

But, it isn't 1980 anymore. And Trump is not Reagan.