Ebola on the horizon?

[T.Lex]

An interesting difference between the current strain and the one talked about in that book, less than 50% of victims with the current strain "crash and bleed out". In previous outbreaks, the number was as high as 75%.

As I become more informed about ebola, I am starting to seriously doubt historic statistics on this. Setting aside the mutation issue, it seems like actual reporting of entire cases ranged from very poor to marginally bad. It seems like statistics like that should always have an added parenthetical "that we know about."

Not judging - the data defines the statistics. Poorly refined data means poorly refined statistics. Just saying that I'm not sure the historical numbers are very helpful.

 

[JTScribe]

A few thoughts on the recent comment. The article from Breitbart discussing "airborne" really doesn't say anything different. It says may be airborne in healthcare settings. That has always been the case; if you are in the same room you can inhale droplets. That is NOT the same as an organism that can survive in dry air, etc.

The experimental virus in "The Hot Zone" was an experimental Ebola virus. Anything can be aerosolized in the laboratory environment. That doesn't mean there isn't a concern. I would think the worst-case scenario would be aerosolization combined with swine infection. But this particular virus isn't a swine problem, so anything like that is "what if".

I think the 21-say incubation period is correct. That's been stated for weeks now. It's another reason you can't control travel unless you just shut down about every civilian flight on the globe.

Contaminated waste? Well what were they supposed to do ? Here's the CDC recommendations, and if you are the administrator handling this you also have to deal with OSHA, EPA, local authorities, and a hazmat company that didn't want the stuff.

Ebola Medical Waste Management | Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC

I really don't like blaming the hospital. Almost no hospital in the country was prepared to see this and a month ago would have been thought crazy for devoting resources to such training.

With the spread from west to east Africa, the frequency of global travel, and the incubation period, plus healthcare workers getting exposed, I'm beginning to wonder if the experts have already told the politicians they can't contain it. It's already gotten out of the containment pattern of previous outbreaks, as I understand it. The best strategy may be to start testing and producing the vaccine, which is what they are doing. If places like the US are kept to isolated cases, most people here don't need a vaccine, at least not initially.

I still don't agree with the phrase "spread like wildfire". Spreading of this disease is bad, for sure. But there are reasons it doesn't spread like a flu virus. It's not just the lack of aerosol transmission, but also because you get so sick, so quickly. You aren't likely to be walking around the mall for long while you are infectious.

It's the mortality rate that's frightening, IMO.

I agree that being prepared to bug-in is important. And if they turns out to be a false alarm, I needed the kick in the pants to sort out a few things anyway.

ETA: think about what happens if you want to shut down travel. We would have to do something pretty extreme at the southern border. Whether you think that's a good idea or not, it's a major upheaval that could create disaster worse than the virus.

I believe you're misremembering. The Reston strain broke out in a monkey house in Virginia and quickly spread to the majority of the population, it wasn't a lab experiment. Frankly we were lucky it didn't impact humans; all four of the workers in the monkey house were infected but asymptomatic.

25 years ago, a different Ebola outbreak - in USA

 

[ghuns]

Not judging - the data defines the statistics.

Yup. And with the current data we have here in Murrica, we are 2 for 3 in successfully treating Ebola patients.

With the two additional cases in Dallas and their early detection, my money is on soon being 4 for 5. If that works out, we'll be sayin Ebola schmola in no time.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Yup. And with the current data we have here in Murrica, we are 2 for 3 in successfully treating Ebola patients.

With the two additional cases in Dallas and their early detection, my money is on soon being 4 for 5. If that works out, we'll be sayin Ebola schmola in no time.

I see our success rate plummeting if the infected population grew even slightly higher than it is now. Wouldn't be able to keep up with the long-term treatment/sustainment of each individual patient.

That, and I imagine this mystery serum isn't exactly in high supply.

 

[ViperJock]

Yup. And with the current data we have here in Murrica, we are 2 for 3 in successfully treating Ebola patients.

With the two additional cases in Dallas and their early detection, my money is on soon being 4 for 5. If that works out, we'll be sayin Ebola schmola in no time.

Wow. You are really optimistic. I certainly hope you are right. But I doubt it.

I'm not a "sky is falling" kind of a guy but IMO the sky is balancing on the edge of the table right now.

 

[T.Lex]

Yup. And with the current data we have here in Murrica, we are 2 for 3 in successfully treating Ebola patients.

With the two additional cases in Dallas and their early detection, my money is on soon being 4 for 5. If that works out, we'll be sayin Ebola schmola in no time.

haha

We are still behind Senegal and Spain (0 deaths in 1 case each), and have a comfortable lead on Nigeria for now (8 deaths, 20 cases).

I wonder if the Senegalese have something like the '72 Dolphins champagne thing....

 

[longbow]

Notice the jump from 70 to 125 people being monitored? Per CDC

 

[pudly]

Yup. Every new Ebola case adds a bunch of new contacts to be monitored.

 

[ghuns]

That, and I imagine this mystery serum isn't exactly in high supply.

That mystery serum is derived from tobacco, so... Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

I have been giving thought lately to finally kickin my smokeless tobacco habit, but in light of this, feel like I need to double down and take up smoking as well just so all the bases are covered.

 

[dusty88]

You've got to be kidding me.

So... instead of a solid 2-21 days, they are now hitting us with 95% in the 2-21 day period, but 98% in the 1-42 period.

Here's the WHO report:
WHO | Are the Ebola outbreaks in Nigeria and Senegal over?

(Silly me, I saw the link yesterday but didn't read it.)



Ok, first, since contact tracing is imprecise, and it is more than possible an infected person can have contact with 100 people before being diagnosed, within the 1-42 day period, this means that 2 of those people might actually have been infected but don't know it. That's the way I read the 98% number. [/q]

What that means is that you wait 42 days with a 21 day incubation period for several reasons:
For example, a person might have a comorbid condition (co-existing disease) and be misdiagnosed while contaminating someone. Or they leave the country or maybe just die in a car accident the day after they infected someone.

That's not a change from the 21 day incubation period, it's just a recommendation of monitoring times.

I believe you're misremembering. The Reston strain broke out in a monkey house in Virginia and quickly spread to the majority of the population, it wasn't a lab experiment. [/q]

I should have said "laboratory environment" but my statement that it's not at all the same as natural environment still stands. It means that you get constant droplet infection, again not the same as a true airborne disease.

When researchers look at Reston, they find very different samples and damage in naturally-infected primates than the ones that get infected in quarantine or laboratories. It's always a lot harder to get good studies on natural infections. I can't remember which researcher it was, but when they wanted to "prove" that Macaus could get Reston by aerosol, they gave them an anesthetic and stuck their head in a concentrated aerosolization of the virus.

You are right that it was fortunate that it was a strain that humans don't get sick from. But pigs get Reston virus now also in the Philippines.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

2nd patient flew on a plane... A DAY before reporting symptoms


This **** is going to get rough.

 

[T.Lex]

2nd patient flew on a plane... A DAY before reporting symptoms

In all seriousness now, other countries should probably ban travel to/from US. Or at least DFW.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

BREAKING: 2nd ebola worker flew Frontier flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas evening before going to hospital. CDC seeking all passengers


One state away. Close enough to panic?

 

[T.Lex]

Not yet. When it is in an Indy hospital, that's when the blank gets real for me.

 

[pudly]

In all seriousness now, other countries should probably ban travel to/from US. Or at least DFW.

How about Brussels?

 

[HeadlessRoland]

 

[dusty88]

BREAKING: 2nd ebola worker flew Frontier flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas evening before going to hospital. CDC seeking all passengers


One state away. Close enough to panic?

I'm not panicked but I'm unhappy that those healthcare workers weren't told to at least self-isolate after one of them became sick.

 

[T.Lex]

How about Brussels?

Still not a country.

 

[smokingman]

BREAKING: 2nd ebola worker flew Frontier flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas evening before going to hospital. CDC seeking all passengers


One state away. Close enough to panic?

Frontier Airlines Statement
“At approximately 1:00 a.m. MT on October 15, Frontier was notified by the CDC that a customer traveling on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth on Oct. 13 has since tested positive for the Ebola virus. The flight landed in Dallas/Fort Worth at 8:16 p.m. local and remained overnight at the airport having completed its flying for the day at which point the aircraft received a thorough cleaning per our normal procedures which is consistent with CDC guidelines prior to returning to service the next day. It was also cleaned again in Cleveland last night. Previously the customer had traveled from Dallas Fort Worth to Cleveland on Frontier flight 1142 on October 10.
Customer exhibited no symptoms or sign of illness while on flight 1143, according to the crew. Frontier responded immediately upon notification from the CDC by removing the aircraft from service and is working closely with CDC to identify and contact customers who may traveled on flight 1143.
Customers who may have traveled on either flight should contact CDC at 1 800 CDC-INFO.
The safety and security of our customers and employees is our primary concern. Frontier will continue to work closely with CDC and other governmental agencies to ensure proper protocols and procedures are being followed.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...sengers-flew-2nd-ebola-patient-report-testing

 

[T.Lex]

Frontier Airlines Statement
...Previously the customer had traveled from Dallas Fort Worth to Cleveland on Frontier flight 1142 on October 10....

That was the day the first nurse exhibited symptoms. Very easy to believe the nurses were infected separately, so it is nothing more than a coincidence. For now.