Ebola on the horizon?

[jedi]

Clamoring for more government control to save us:

The Ebola fumble: What CDC needs to do now | Fox News

"I believe any health care worker who works closely with an Ebola patient should be under direct supervision of the CDC."



Sodium hypochlorite tends to exhibit drastic destructive effect on viruses, and in the past has been proven to be effective against Ebola, among many others. The problem with bleach is that it offgases oxygen and chlorine and eventually devolves into salt water. Storing it for years on end is not an effective strategy despite modern manufacturers adding in sodium hydroxide to make it last longer before decomposing.

Hum... you sound like Kirk on not giving a direct answer.
So bleach I buy today will work OK provided I use it within say the next 7 days.
However bleach I have in the laundry room that is say 2 months old won't be effective.
Right....


Does Sodium hypochlorite come in a non-liquid form that could be stored for longer term and then say with some water made into a solution (ie. bleach) to use?

 

[kiddchaos]

shelf life of bleach

Chlorine Bleach Shelf Life

Or get some dry pool shock. (calcium hypochlorite with no other additives).
http://www.shtfblog.com/how-much-bleach-to-store/

 

[T.Lex]

Did you know America has an "ebola czar"?

President Obama Already Has An Ebola Czar. Where Is She?

So there's already a person who is being paid to plan for Ebola and NO ONE has gotten her ass in front of a camera?

Dammit. When I read this, I thought, "Shirley, her name must be Anastasia."

Alas. It isn't.

 

[HeadlessRoland]

So bleach

Without bombarding you with science, yes. Maybe. And sort of. In that order.

Yes, it's still effective when you receive it. Depending on concentration, temperature, any contaminating ions present in solution, and whether or not it is exposed to light, it could be effective for several months. I would not, however, store it past one year in any circumstance. I have, in the recent past, had Clorox become ineffective against mold spores after storage at approximately seventy degrees Fahrenheit, in the bottle, at three months. Some has been effective against the same type of mold, in my testing, up to 240 days (about 8 months). I didn't have a control in my semi-experiment, however, and your mileage may vary. My new rule is to write date of purchase in sharpie marker on the side and to flush it at six months, whether it needs it or not.

Calcium hypochlorite has similar activity, but be careful when diluting it and using it for purposes beyond pool cleaning and pool shock. Ions in hard water can reduce efficacy, and stronger solutions - as with bleach - will decay faster than weaker solutions.

Is that sufficient information, or do you need a good scientific citation?

You need a citation, you say? Well, all right:
Inorganic Chemistry 1992, 31(17), 3534-3541
Hypochlorous Acid Decomposition in the 5-8pH Range
(Sodium hypochlorite being a salt of hypochlorous acid)

Canadian Journal of Chemistry 1956, 34(4), 465-478
Decomposition of Sodium Hypochlorite, Uncatalyzed

 

[HeadlessRoland]

Metro Exclusive: Bus Passenger Claiming He Has Ebola on the Run in Los Angeles

Medical Research Org CIDRAP: Ebola Transmittable by Air

Nurses Union: Duncan Not Put In Isolation, Waste Piled Nearly Up to Ceiling

It just occurred to me that if I were to subscribe to the Cloward-Piven strategy for dismantling and destroying America, that one could not do a much better job of giving that strategy form-made-flesh than to deliberately allow a pandemic to invade and to thus cripple our critical healthcare and logistics infrastructure as panic and its inevitable sidekick chaos take the reins and ride roughshod throughout this nation. Why yes, if I were wanting to destroy America, I can hardly imagine a more opportune crisis, and a more vital opportunity than this. If I were more cynical, why, who knows the final conclusions to which I may be drawn. Surely government, of all entities, wouldn't let events unfold that would cause untold harm to people and damage to property just for the sake of increasing and expanding its own powers. Surely not. Not government, right?

 

[smokingman]

Latest developments in Ebola outbreak - CNN.com
Just another link about the anonomous report of nurses at the hospital.

Contaminated waste stacked to the ceiling,mishandling of samples,violations of the isolation unit,no ppe,improper ppe(left neck exposed),ect....a mess to be sure.

 

[jedi]

So the cat is almost out of the bag with ebola possible airborne.
Now what? We can't go around wearing full head gear all day can we?
Do just stay home forever?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Another Ebola patient this morning. Will link when I get to work

 

[pudly]

Another Ebola patient this morning. Will link when I get to work

Here is one link: Texas health officials say second healthcare worker at Dallas hospital tests positive for Ebola | Fox News

 

[Bunnykid68]

Soooo, we are up to 100's of cases and it's spreading like wildfire now after a couple of weeks............

 

[HeadlessRoland]

Soooo, we are up to 100's of cases and it's spreading like wildfire now after a couple of weeks............

[video=youtube;gl4Y4FWWkn0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gl4Y4FWWkn0[/video]

Ebola, like magic horses, fears the samurai.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Whoa if true: World Health Organization says Ebola can incubate for more than 21 days | Twitchy


Soo... self-quarantine is now over a month.

 

[T.Lex]

You've got to be kidding me.

So... instead of a solid 2-21 days, they are now hitting us with 95% in the 2-21 day period, but 98% in the 1-42 period.

Here's the WHO report:
WHO | Are the Ebola outbreaks in Nigeria and Senegal over?

(Silly me, I saw the link yesterday but didn't read it.)

For WHO to declare an Ebola outbreak over, a country must pass through 42 days, with active surveillance demonstrably in place, supported by good diagnostic capacity, and with no new cases detected. Active surveillance is essential to detect chains of transmission that might otherwise remain hidden.

The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease and is considered by WHO as sufficient to generate confidence in a declaration that an Ebola outbreak has ended.

Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval. WHO is therefore confident that detection of no new cases, with active surveillance in place, throughout this 42-day period means that an Ebola outbreak is indeed over.

Ok, first, since contact tracing is imprecise, and it is more than possible an infected person can have contact with 100 people before being diagnosed, within the 1-42 day period, this means that 2 of those people might actually have been infected but don't know it. That's the way I read the 98% number.

Second, 3 of those hundred get infected outside the 2-21 day period. You know, that period that we've all relied on since this started.

No wonder it hasn't been contained very well.

Amazing that Nigeria and Senegal got their stuff together to keep it contained without this data. Kudos to them.

 

[Thor]

1-42 days...

 

[ArcadiaGP]

The absurd claim that only Republicans are to blame for cuts to Ebola research - The Washington Post

This bull**** claim they were making gets the coveted "4 Pinocchios"

 

[JTScribe]

You've got to be kidding me.

So... instead of a solid 2-21 days, they are now hitting us with 95% in the 2-21 day period, but 98% in the 1-42 period.

Here's the WHO report:
WHO | Are the Ebola outbreaks in Nigeria and Senegal over?

(Silly me, I saw the link yesterday but didn't read it.)



Ok, first, since contact tracing is imprecise, and it is more than possible an infected person can have contact with 100 people before being diagnosed, within the 1-42 day period, this means that 2 of those people might actually have been infected but don't know it. That's the way I read the 98% number.

Second, 3 of those hundred get infected outside the 2-21 day period. You know, that period that we've all relied on since this started.

No wonder it hasn't been contained very well.

Amazing that Nigeria and Senegal got their stuff together to keep it contained without this data. Kudos to them.

I just read "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston, which is about the (true, non-fiction) discovery of Ebola and the outbreak of the Reston strain in Virginia - which was air transmissible. The data from that book very much does not line up with some of the things that have been reported in the media. IE, if you're infected, it should show within 10 days or so, and once you're infected, depending on the strain you're likely to be dead in five days. I don't know if the book is just outdated by new knowledge or what, but the compare and contrast is interesting.

 

[T.Lex]

Some decent reporting:
WHO: Ebola spreading in W. Africa, threatens Ivory Coast; some areas see fewer cases - The Washington Post

It also challenges some of the oft-repeated information about ebola:

“We have had to carefully identify those individual patients for whom we could follow their entire course – when we do that carefully, we find that 70% are dying and that this number is pretty robust across the 3 worst-affected countries,” Aylward said in an e-mail to The Washington Post.
...
“Is the epidemic slowing down, or are we not seeing the exponential growth?” Aylward said. “Quite frankly, it’s too early to say.”
...
It’s not good enough, he said, to have just a little bit of Ebola.
“That’s like saying you’re only a little bit pregnant. This is Ebola. This is a horrible, unforgiving disease. You've got to get down to a level of zero,” said Aylward, who visited West Africa last week.
He added, “Any sense that the great effort that’s been kicked off the last couple of months is already starting to see an impact, that would be really, really premature.”

 

[longbow]

2 to 6 additional cases to be reported by Thursday in Dallas-per my source.

added- I pray she is wrong

I asked about the family of Duncan, and she said the silence with that family is troubling. Also she was told to turn off her private cell phone when she now is at work.

On a side note, they have told the mayor and judge that went to the Duncan Apartment to limit exposures to the public and neither of them have been doing that.

 

[ghuns]

The data from that book very much does not line up with some of the things that have been reported in the media. IE, if you're infected, it should show within 10 days or so, and once you're infected, depending on the strain you're likely to be dead in five days. I don't know if the book is just outdated by new knowledge or what, but the compare and contrast is interesting.

Strains of Ebola vary. Some have 90% mortality rates some around 50%. I would say much of that is attributable to the quality of medical care, but not all of it. Some bugs are just meaner than others.

An interesting difference between the current strain and the one talked about in that book, less than 50% of victims with the current strain "crash and bleed out". In previous outbreaks, the number was as high as 75%.

 

[dusty88]

A few thoughts on the recent comment. The article from Breitbart discussing "airborne" really doesn't say anything different. It says may be airborne in healthcare settings. That has always been the case; if you are in the same room you can inhale droplets. That is NOT the same as an organism that can survive in dry air, etc.

The experimental virus in "The Hot Zone" was an experimental Ebola virus. Anything can be aerosolized in the laboratory environment. That doesn't mean there isn't a concern. I would think the worst-case scenario would be aerosolization combined with swine infection. But this particular virus isn't a swine problem, so anything like that is "what if".

I think the 21-say incubation period is correct. That's been stated for weeks now. It's another reason you can't control travel unless you just shut down about every civilian flight on the globe.

Contaminated waste? Well what were they supposed to do ? Here's the CDC recommendations, and if you are the administrator handling this you also have to deal with OSHA, EPA, local authorities, and a hazmat company that didn't want the stuff.

Ebola Medical Waste Management | Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC

I really don't like blaming the hospital. Almost no hospital in the country was prepared to see this and a month ago would have been thought crazy for devoting resources to such training.

With the spread from west to east Africa, the frequency of global travel, and the incubation period, plus healthcare workers getting exposed, I'm beginning to wonder if the experts have already told the politicians they can't contain it. It's already gotten out of the containment pattern of previous outbreaks, as I understand it. The best strategy may be to start testing and producing the vaccine, which is what they are doing. If places like the US are kept to isolated cases, most people here don't need a vaccine, at least not initially.

I still don't agree with the phrase "spread like wildfire". Spreading of this disease is bad, for sure. But there are reasons it doesn't spread like a flu virus. It's not just the lack of aerosol transmission, but also because you get so sick, so quickly. You aren't likely to be walking around the mall for long while you are infectious.

It's the mortality rate that's frightening, IMO.

I agree that being prepared to bug-in is important. And if they turns out to be a false alarm, I needed the kick in the pants to sort out a few things anyway.

ETA: think about what happens if you want to shut down travel. We would have to do something pretty extreme at the southern border. Whether you think that's a good idea or not, it's a major upheaval that could create disaster worse than the virus.