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Ebola on the horizon?
- Thread starter nra4ever
- Start date
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O'Reilly Goes Nuclear on Propagandist CDC's Tom Frieden | Mediaite
German hospital: UN worker dies of Ebola
Also, WHO projecting 5,000 to 10,000 new Ebola cases weekly by end of November (versus 1000 new cases weekly now)
German hospital: UN worker dies of Ebola
Also, WHO projecting 5,000 to 10,000 new Ebola cases weekly by end of November (versus 1000 new cases weekly now)
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I don't see how they can say that, based on their own numbers.
In fact, the most recent WHO update, with numbers as of Oct. 7 for Guinea and Liberia, and Oct. 8 for Sierra Leone, show 8376 cases and 4024 deaths. That is somewhat less than double from 30 days prior. Statistically speaking, that means the rate of infection is slowing down.
Now, the big caveat is: they may not care about numbers anymore. WHO may be basing the larger projections on an inside view of what's actually happening in those countries that tells them that they can't believe their own numbers. I recall Sierra Leone (I think) telling people they were on their own.
Rough notes on how a hospital should handle working with Ebola patients
There should be a separate gowning up room that is clean and it is the starting point of the journey.
Then you are inspected for proper gear set up.
Then you move to the hazard (patient) room that is dirty.
When done you move to the decon room which is not the same room as the gowning up room.
After decon and waiting for the solution to do its job you move to the gear removal area then decon again naked and wait
Then move to a shower room and get dressed.
The dressing room is not the same room as the gowning up room.
All of these rooms should be in a line and travel is only one way through the area.
Trash is now a whole separate issue with the same controls for protection and decon
Where is the decon water/solution going to be held?
Don't forget special airflow for the ventilation system to work and not spread it back into the clean areas.
I asked the hospitals I deal with if they have any set up like this and they all said no. ED have some basic decon setups but nothing like this. Every hospital has several rooms with negative pressure, but that does not include the hallways in front of these rooms. Newer hospitals have on average two negative pressure rooms per floor. Everything else listed above would have to be built for a hospital to do decon correctly.
There should be a separate gowning up room that is clean and it is the starting point of the journey.
Then you are inspected for proper gear set up.
Then you move to the hazard (patient) room that is dirty.
When done you move to the decon room which is not the same room as the gowning up room.
After decon and waiting for the solution to do its job you move to the gear removal area then decon again naked and wait
Then move to a shower room and get dressed.
The dressing room is not the same room as the gowning up room.
All of these rooms should be in a line and travel is only one way through the area.
Trash is now a whole separate issue with the same controls for protection and decon
Where is the decon water/solution going to be held?
Don't forget special airflow for the ventilation system to work and not spread it back into the clean areas.
I asked the hospitals I deal with if they have any set up like this and they all said no. ED have some basic decon setups but nothing like this. Every hospital has several rooms with negative pressure, but that does not include the hallways in front of these rooms. Newer hospitals have on average two negative pressure rooms per floor. Everything else listed above would have to be built for a hospital to do decon correctly.
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I realize the article is a week old but still some pertinent info.
Ebola: Studies Dispute CDC Mantra ? The News Doctors
Ebola: Studies Dispute CDC Mantra ? The News Doctors
Not to quibble, but I think there are several routes to 1M ebola patients. India, as you mention, but also mainland China and even Brazil. That false alarm, with the thought of the virus rampant in the slums, should serve as a wakeup call, too.
But, at the same time, "so far, so good." At least, from a numbers perspective. If any country would be most likely to register new ebola patients, it seems like it would be Ivory Coast. It shares a border with both Guinea and Liberia. Yet, as far as we know, not a single infection.
Also, no "wild" cases in Europe. (I don't count the Spanish nurse, because that was a risk of bringing the infected patients "home" to die.)
I asked this earlier, but it bears repeating. At what point do other countries declare travel restrictions to/from the US?
Dammit, Janet, you're right - he did say a billion! My bad. Hey, million infections here, million infections there, pretty soon you're talking a real pandemic.
Apologies longbow - yeah, to get to a billion, you'd have to go through India/Pakistan and then China. Either that or airborne anywhere.
Here's another thing - way before we get to multiple millions, people will stop counting. Too much will shut down. There won't be enough people to logistically handle the monitoring part of it. So, we may never know if it gets to a billion.
Apologies longbow - yeah, to get to a billion, you'd have to go through India/Pakistan and then China. Either that or airborne anywhere.
Here's another thing - way before we get to multiple millions, people will stop counting. Too much will shut down. There won't be enough people to logistically handle the monitoring part of it. So, we may never know if it gets to a billion.
LOngbow outlines why our presumed awesome "hygienic procedures" are easily overwhelmed.
Even with a few isolated cases of people like Duncan or the reporter who came home with this, you create problems in the healthcare system and waste disposal.
Again, though, the vaccine is very promising. I think the worst-case scenario, of overwhelming cases in Asia and South America, might then mean staying home for a while until vaccine has controlled areas surrounding the outbreaks, and then in high enough production to vaccinate anyone who wants/needs it. It's not an "unstoppable" infection if you can stay away from it for a while.
In other words, the worst enemy is stupid people who won't stay home if they are sick. And people who don't even have 3 days of food and water so that they can stay home and avoid the most crowded places.
Even with a few isolated cases of people like Duncan or the reporter who came home with this, you create problems in the healthcare system and waste disposal.
Again, though, the vaccine is very promising. I think the worst-case scenario, of overwhelming cases in Asia and South America, might then mean staying home for a while until vaccine has controlled areas surrounding the outbreaks, and then in high enough production to vaccinate anyone who wants/needs it. It's not an "unstoppable" infection if you can stay away from it for a while.
In other words, the worst enemy is stupid people who won't stay home if they are sick. And people who don't even have 3 days of food and water so that they can stay home and avoid the most crowded places.
2ADMNLOVER
Grandmaster
Why will our hospitals be easily overwhelmed ? Because they aren't military hospitals trained in the NBC aspects of medical care .
As a piggy back to longbow's post , folks might wanna read this thread https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...eparedness/297905-quarantine-bucket-idea.html .
If you haven't " prepped " for anything ever , you might wanna start cause with the dumbass in chief letting everybody and their brother in the country , IMO things will be getting worse .
Don't wait until your kids or neighbors get sick .
Cases in Ethiopia, Suspected case of a Passenger from Sudan who landed in Kenya
Ebola Outbreak Spreads in Ethiopia, Kenya and South Sudan as passenger dies at Kenya?s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (Hara Ethiopia) | Hara Ethiopia ?? ??????
Ebola Outbreak Spreads in Ethiopia, Kenya and South Sudan as passenger dies at Kenya?s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (Hara Ethiopia) | Hara Ethiopia ?? ??????
Try to find these in any quantities by the end of the week?
positive pressure respirator
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MSA OptimAir PAPR Respirators, Respirator Masks - All Safety Products
positive pressure respirator
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MSA OptimAir PAPR Respirators, Respirator Masks - All Safety Products
Not a clue but leaning towards medical staff
More from WHO, including a bit of explanation (for which I'm grateful):
BBC News - Ebola crisis: Outbreak death toll rises to 4,447 says WHO
So, that suggests the reliability of the numbers from the various countries. (I sardonically wonder if they'll use a multiplier for US numbers. Or Spain.)
Assuming they've been consistent with those multipliers, it still only means a doubling in the last 30 days. Roughly the same growth rate as 30/60/90 days ago.
ETA:
Crunched some numbers. Let's use the WHO recent update of 8,914. Let's round to 9k. On September 14, WHO reported 5,339 cases. Doubling that would get us to 10.6k. Clearly, their numbers are under that.
Before that, on August 13, there were 2,127 cases. Clearly, from Aug-Sept, there was a bit more than a doubling. Based on just the last 60 days, the REPORTS of cases is slowing. Basically, the same trajectory for deaths, too.
The polynomial growth rate would suggest just less than 14k in 30 days. But, the current actual numbers are a bit below that trendline. Frankly, a polynomial trendline that fits pretty well with the current curve suggests the numbers will max out at about 10k, before starting to decline in mid-November.
Having said that, I will be as surprised to see the numbers fall as I would be to see them add 10k in one week at this point.
BBC News - Ebola crisis: Outbreak death toll rises to 4,447 says WHO
So, that suggests the reliability of the numbers from the various countries. (I sardonically wonder if they'll use a multiplier for US numbers. Or Spain.)
Assuming they've been consistent with those multipliers, it still only means a doubling in the last 30 days. Roughly the same growth rate as 30/60/90 days ago.
ETA:
Crunched some numbers. Let's use the WHO recent update of 8,914. Let's round to 9k. On September 14, WHO reported 5,339 cases. Doubling that would get us to 10.6k. Clearly, their numbers are under that.
Before that, on August 13, there were 2,127 cases. Clearly, from Aug-Sept, there was a bit more than a doubling. Based on just the last 60 days, the REPORTS of cases is slowing. Basically, the same trajectory for deaths, too.
The polynomial growth rate would suggest just less than 14k in 30 days. But, the current actual numbers are a bit below that trendline. Frankly, a polynomial trendline that fits pretty well with the current curve suggests the numbers will max out at about 10k, before starting to decline in mid-November.
Having said that, I will be as surprised to see the numbers fall as I would be to see them add 10k in one week at this point.
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Not sure of the source, but they link to a Twitter of the company CEO, so seems legit. Nurse's boyfriend got it.
Ebola Nurse Boyfriend Admitted With Ebola Symptoms
That would be problematic as all get out IMO as the CDC has repeatedly said that it's not contagious when you're not showing symptoms. I can't imagine the nurse being intimate with her boyfriend if she was showing symptoms.
