DeSantis 2024?

[BugI02]

As I believe you have said before, you one usually find a poll to back up one's particular predilections. Harvard-Harris poll covering an overlapping time period

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HHP_April2023_KeyResults.pdf

"TRUMP WINS HYPOTHETICAL HORSERACE AGAINST BIDEN BY 5 POINTS, AGAINST HARRIS BY 10"

"DESANTIS IS A FAVORITE VERSUS BIDEN (+3) AND HARRIS (+2)"

 

[Ingomike]

And that was Trump's former polling firm that did the poll for WSJ:

Trump’s Pollster Finds DeSantis Leading Biden and Biden Leading Trump | National Review

There’s a new poll from the WSJ out today about the 2024 presidential race.

www.nationalreview.com

The irrelevance of all this is astounding. A poll commissioned by a MSM media outlet, touted by a never Trump outlet, by a pollster that has been commissioned by Trump in the past has a special relevance? Not to me…

 

[manifest destiny]

Two weeks before election day 2016, "Clinton over Trump by double digits."
From the below article...

The results showing Clinton with a growing lead largely match CNN’s Poll of Polls, which averages recent national surveys. That Poll of Polls shows Clinton ahead 48% to Trump’s 39%.
The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

 

[Ingomike]

It’s early yet. A poll can be made to say anything the creators want it to say. The republican nominee, whoever s/he is, will have to win beyond the margin of cheating. And the fact that Biden isn’t further under water than the polling shows vs a republican, with the state of the economy (Etc), is…disappointing.

I suggest ignoring polls, they are notoriously inaccurate…

 

[BugI02]

Also from RCP, general favorable/unfavorable polls IMO show Trump has a ceiling around 46% because of high unfavorable ratings. Like worse than Kamala Harris unfavorable.

Not so with DeSantis.

View attachment 270990

So, a poll in which Hakeem Jeffries has a better +/- than anyone else, including DeRomneyis!! Really? THATS your evidence that DeRomneyis is the man of the hour? Among Democrats, maybe lolz

 

[BugI02]

Two weeks before election day 2016, "Clinton over Trump by double digits."
From the below article...

The results showing Clinton with a growing lead largely match CNN’s Poll of Polls, which averages recent national surveys. That Poll of Polls shows Clinton ahead 48% to Trump’s 39%.
The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

I think the INGO Team DeRomneyis narrative is either:

She didn't take Trump seriously and thus didn't campaign in swing states and would have won if she had

She was a horrible candidate who could have been beaten by anyone

Now, you might think those two narrative threads are mutually exclusive, but they're NOT - because:reasons

Anything to avoid giving Trump any credit

 

[SheepDog4Life]

So, a poll in which Hakeem Jeffries has a better +/- than anyone else, including DeRomneyis!! Really? THATS your evidence that DeRomneyis is the man of the hour? Among Democrats, maybe lolz

Actually, Donny the Loser is the Dems pick to run against in the general... he got lucky once, since then they've had his number and he keeps stepping on his own ****.

If anyone but Trump starts looking like the likely nominee... watch them dump Biden pronto.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

As I believe you have said before, you one usually find a poll to back up one's particular predilections. Harvard-Harris poll covering an overlapping time period

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HHP_April2023_KeyResults.pdf

"TRUMP WINS HYPOTHETICAL HORSERACE AGAINST BIDEN BY 5 POINTS, AGAINST HARRIS BY 10"

"DESANTIS IS A FAVORITE VERSUS BIDEN (+3) AND HARRIS (+2)"

Yes, and I thought that was the point @Ingomike was making with the RCP average of multiple polls for Trump v Biden.

 

[BugI02]

Yes, and I thought that was the point @Ingomike was making with the RCP average of multiple polls for Trump v Biden.

But wait - polls are manipulated to show Trump as the favorite because he's who the DEMs want to run against

But then when polls show DeRomneyis is suddenly a favorite, they're NOT being manipulated to favor who those same DEMs would like to run against because those same DEMs are AFRAID of Ron?

 

[SheepDog4Life]

But wait - polls are manipulated to show Trump as the favorite because he's who the DEMs want to run against

But then when polls show DeRomneyis is suddenly a favorite, they're NOT being manipulated to favor who those same DEMs would like to run against because those same DEMs are AFRAID of Ron?

What do think the Pornstar Payoff Prosecution (PPP) was about? Test run... big bump for Trump v DeSantis and the field in the nomination polls, nada in the general.

 

[manifest destiny]

Bidiot won't be the D nominee. The R nominee is irrelevant to that fact.

 

[DadSmith]

New Larry P. Arnn Show podcast episode! #hillsdalecollege #larryparnnshow #congress #rondesantis

Watch the podcast episode: https://youtu.be/FC7xPq8ts9cLarry P. Arnn, President of Hillsdale College, sits down with guests of the College to talk about topi...

youtube.com

For those who couldn't handle the full interview. Here is the short, short version.

 

[Twangbanger]

Actually, Donny the Loser is the Dems pick to run against in the general... he got lucky once, since then they've had his number and he keeps stepping on his own ****.

If anyone but Trump starts looking like the likely nominee... watch them dump Biden pronto.

I don't think that's the case. I think the Democrats' preference is for Trump to lose his own primary. Nothing would usher Trumpism out the door more quickly, and that's why I think the indictments were issued so far in advance of the election.

I also think the Democrats have more certainty of beating DeSantis in the General, now that he signed this abortion bill in Florida. The version I read was he signed it in the dead of night, with no publicity. His legislature presented him with a dead cat, which he could neither embrace, nor send away. So he signed it as quietly as possible. He now has the radioactive poison on his fingers of being the Republican face of state-level abortion restriction in the country, and that will be hard to wash off.

I think DeSantis' fortunes have dropped considerably. Much has been made of DeSantis losing those endorsements in FL, but I think the abortion bill will be a bigger issue. Once a Republican gets the smell of religious fundamentalism on him, voters are super turned-off by that. Americans are a "spiritual" people, but as soon as a candidate starts to project too much moral certainty in their particular doctrines or positions, the voters scurry quickly. Being a porn star diddler isn't as radioactive, to as many people. People have a capacity to understand that people like DJT and his various wives, have a somewhat more "open" arrangement than most people do. It's their business, and not totally disqualifying. Once someone like DeSantis starts projecting a willingness to legislate their moral certainties onto others, it is a no-bueno for many voters, even ones who believe in God.

Democrats have a very well-practiced playbook for how to define religious conservatives to the voters, then soundly beat that strawman image they've ginned up. DeSantis' state legislature just walked him right into the Gauntlet. He now starts to look less like Trump, and more like Pence.

I think DeSantis is toast.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

@Twangbanger whatever your/my/our beliefs on abortion, I do think the 6 week ban is a liability in the general election. IMO, many people who do not vote based upon abortion will view that as an extreme position akin to an outright, total ban.

It could be the FL legislature just sent it to him on their own prerogative... I don't think so. I think he asked for and got what he wanted.

Not politically wise, so I'm assuming he/they did so based upon principle.

 

[Twangbanger]

@Twangbanger whatever your/my/our beliefs on abortion, I do think the 6 week ban is a liability in the general election. IMO, many people who do not vote based upon abortion will view that as an extreme position akin to an outright, total ban.

It could be the FL legislature just sent it to him on their own prerogative... I don't think so. I think he asked for and got what he wanted.

Not politically wise, so I'm assuming he/they did so based upon principle.

I didn't realize he asked for it, but if so, he miscalculated the national stage, and probably won't be on it.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I didn't realize he asked for it, but if so, he miscalculated the national stage, and probably won't be on it.

We'll see... Trump is skirting a specific stance on abortion, where he draws the line, and pro-life coalitions are starting to call him on it:

Anti-abortion group blasts Trump over federal ban comments

A major anti-abortion group is blasting former President Donald Trump, saying his contention that abortion restrictions should be left up to individual states, not the federal government, is a “morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate.” The Susan B...

apnews.com

 

[Twangbanger]

We'll see... Trump is skirting a specific stance on abortion, where he draws the line, and pro-life coalitions are starting to call him on it:

Anti-abortion group blasts Trump over federal ban comments

A major anti-abortion group is blasting former President Donald Trump, saying his contention that abortion restrictions should be left up to individual states, not the federal government, is a “morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate.” The Susan B...

apnews.com

He repealed RVW for them. He doesn't owe them sh.t. These nerds need to get to work in the states.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

The version I read was he signed it in the dead of night, with no publicity.

You might want to check your sources.... posted to Twitter the same day he signed:



I'm guessing GWP or Truth False Social.

He repealed RVW for them. He doesn't owe them sh.t. These nerds need to get to work in the states.

He had to promise conservative justices to get the Evangelical vote in 2016 to innoculate against the whole "just grab them by the *****" ethos of his.

Now both DeSantis and Scott are to the right of him on pro-life issues.

They don't owe him another vote.

 

[Morgan12]

Here is my thoughts FWIW,
I’d rather have Trump but they will pull the same **** again and Biden will be back in. We cannot let that happen I’ll vote for Ron we need to learn to play the long game sure we may like one person better but what one can pull the swing vote and will the media not screw as hard are the questions we need to ask. I like Trump more but I am scared of the douche nozzle we now have in office and Trump won’t be allowed to beat him. I’ll vote for Ron to make sure we get the big prize. I have nothing at all against Ron anyways

 

[BugI02]

You might want to check your sources.... posted to Twitter the same day he signed:



I'm guessing GWP or Truth False Social.


He had to promise conservative justices to get the Evangelical vote in 2016 to innoculate against the whole "just grab them by the *****" ethos of his.

Now both DeSantis and Scott are to the right of him on pro-life issues.

They don't owe him another vote.

That tweet shows a time stamp of 11:04pm, so I believe that does count as 'the dead of night'

Only coverage I see is his own announcement on twitter, very little press, small friendly audience

He does however get credit for signing it the same day he got it from the legislature. Passed FL senate 3 Apr and passed the house the 13th, so when he got it might be an artifact of what time it was reported out of the house