Coronovirus IV

[Trigger Time]

To my knowledge, no one on INGO has done that. Both sides (from my perspective).

Please identify who on INGO has deliberately mis-represented the information available, that I might consider their credibility more thoroughly.

Oh, and for the neg-repper out there (you know who you are), if quoting or paraphrasing another INGOer is against the rules, WAY more INGOers would be shootered.

If you don't want to name names, just don't. No need to hide behind a fake rule. Or use the PM system.




.... hold up. Let's use "reported" or "actual." Just for consistency.



So that's one way to look at it. Another is to examine who is still getting the tests. We aren't doing NEARLY enough contact tracing yet (that I'm aware of). So, those getting the tests are still going to generally be ones who are symptomatic at some level.

For me to fully agree with your statement, I would amend it to say that if someone has a symptomatic COVID infection, there's about a 1/17 chance of dying from it.


Ok.


What people believe or can be convinced of is a much bigger topic.

The numbers are the numbers. Some will think 1/25 is too risky, others that it is pretty safe.


Ok. Lots of people live with a sense of invulnerability, others with a low level of risk tolerance.

'Tis a free country.


That, and much more.

Frankly, the more positive cases, the better, IMHO. Not in some dark foreboding way, but it means that we are catching infections earlier. Or at least it should mean that.

I didn't give you neg rep hope that wasnt for me.

Also, fake rule? That was meant for me right?
You cant name call on ingo in a thread. Thats not a fake rule. If i want to name someone i will. If i don't i won't.

Been here way longer than you have, way before you started your hardons for guys shooting at dogs and found ingo in order to prosecute retired LEO member, and im well aware of the rules.

You can take my posts any way you like. I honestly give zero ****s what you think
And yeah large swaths of the population don't want America to succeed. They're called liberals.

 

[churchmouse]

Well now you guys have gone and done it.....

Lets give this a rest or we will see about doing some shootering.

 

[churchmouse]

OK breaks over.

 

[OurDee]

WooHoo!

 

[nonobaddog]

In the US we just hit 100K deaths recently - but on the good side we also are about to hit 400K survivors. That is a lot of potential plasma donors. I have no idea how many of these are fit to be donors (meaning free of other diseases) or even how many would consider donating but that is a lot of potential. Maybe even more than needed for the politicians and doctors at the front of the line - and their families.

And of course many more survivors than that probably exist already and many more will be coming.

 

[JettaKnight]

Yeah, back to the thread topic...

So I went and looked at that CDC data again, it looks like COVID-19 deaths are over ten times as much as normal generic influenza deaths, which sort of torpedoes that idea that this is the no more than a normal flu.

But, I'm not a statistician or an epidemiologist.

 

[Ingomike]

Yeah, back to the thread topic...

So I went and looked at that CDC data again, it looks like COVID-19 deaths are over ten times as much as normal generic influenza deaths, which sort of torpedoes that idea that this is the no more than a normal flu.

But, I'm not a statistician or an epidemiologist.

How are you getting that?

Flu Deaths are in the 50,000-80,000 range per season, looking like the first ever season of C-19 could be double not 10 times. It will be less an issue in coming seasons as immunity levels rise.

 

[nonobaddog]

I lost count on how many times we have been through this.

 

[JettaKnight]

How are you getting that?

Flu Deaths are in the 50,000-80,000 range per season, looking like the first ever season of C-19 could be double not 10 times. It will be less an issue in coming seasons as immunity levels rise.

OK...

look here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data


United States: All Sexes: All Ages: Full set from Feb 1 to May 16.
COVID-19 deaths: 68,998
Influenza deaths: 6,223


Sure COVID-19 deaths may less in later seasons (God willing), but right now, it's no beuno.
Flu deaths may be 50,000-80,000 per season (but it seems high given this data set), but the data I presented is "apples to apples", that is to say is over the same time period.

Even if there's a false attribution of gunshot and alcohol deaths to COVID-19, there's no way it could possibly make up the huge number of deaths.

 

[terrehautian]

In the US we just hit 100K deaths recently - but on the good side we also are about to hit 400K survivors. That is a lot of potential plasma donors. I have no idea how many of these are fit to be donors (meaning free of other diseases) or even how many would consider donating but that is a lot of potential. Maybe even more than needed for the politicians and doctors at the front of the line - and their families.

And of course many more survivors than that probably exist already and many more will be coming.

much like cases, there is probably many times more survivors. In Vigo county, no one has recovered according to the health department because they aren’t testing for recoveries. They said it isn’t useful and needed because the virus “sheds for six weeks”.
The first case here was mid March.

 

[nonobaddog]

much like cases, there is probably many times more survivors. In Vigo county, no one has recovered according to the health department because they aren’t testing for recoveries. They said it isn’t useful and needed because the virus “sheds for six weeks”.
The first case here was mid March.

Yes, I find it very strange that there isn't more noise about using plasma from survivors. I'll see if there is anything going on along that line around here tomorrow. It would be like a mini-transfusion so it might be too involved to be considered as an answer for the masses.

I still might ask around and see if I can identify somebody I know that has had it and has my blood type.

 

[Hatin Since 87]

OK...

look here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data


United States: All Sexes: All Ages: Full set from Feb 1 to May 16.
COVID-19 deaths: 68,998
Influenza deaths: 6,223


Sure COVID-19 deaths may less in later seasons (God willing), but right now, it's no beuno.
Flu deaths may be 50,000-80,000 per season (but it seems high given this data set), but the data I presented is "apples to apples", that is to say is over the same time period.

Even if there's a false attribution of gunshot and alcohol deaths to COVID-19, there's no way it could possibly make up the huge number of deaths.

I think this is definitely worse than the flu myself. However, of the numbers you posted, are those confirmed cases only? No “suspected” cases that had all the symptoms but never tested? And curious how many of those flu deaths were actually counted as covid deaths, if they’re not 100% confirmed deaths only that is.

 

[ditcherman]

How are you getting that?

Flu Deaths are in the 50,000-80,000 range per season, looking like the first ever season of C-19 could be double not 10 times. It will be less an issue in coming seasons as immunity levels rise.

When all this first started the argument was 20-40K then the goalposts moved to 60, and now we're up to 80K?
Fishy numbers from all sides, I say.

 

[cobber]

What's that quote about lies, damned lies and statistics again?

Of course MiniTruth wouldn't deceive us plebs now, would it?

 

[jamil]

I understand what it means. It's still wrong.

I expect science dorks touted as experts to use proper words. I don't think that's too much to ask.

Meh. People shorting phrases all the time. Of course they mean running a HIGH temperature. It's okay if even "experts" use colloquial language every now and again.

 

[chipbennett]

OK...

look here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data


United States: All Sexes: All Ages: Full set from Feb 1 to May 16.
COVID-19 deaths: 68,998
Influenza deaths: 6,223


Sure COVID-19 deaths may less in later seasons (God willing), but right now, it's no beuno.
Flu deaths may be 50,000-80,000 per season (but it seems high given this data set), but the data I presented is "apples to apples", that is to say is over the same time period.

Even if there's a false attribution of gunshot and alcohol deaths to COVID-19, there's no way it could possibly make up the huge number of deaths.

It's almost like flu and pneumonia deaths this season are generally all being attributed to COVID19 (whether that is accurate/appropriate or not - as a co-morbidity, it could be).

Questions for you, though: are 6,000 deaths normal for the flu in a given season? If not, why are you using that number to compare "normal" flu to COVID-19, and what does a "normal" flu season look like?

(Hint: 6,000 deaths is not a normal flu season. It is about 1/10 of a normal flu season. 60,000 - 80,000 deaths is fairly normal for a flu season. So, even at 100,000, COVID-19 would represent a fairly bad flue season - and I am on record not believing that 100,000 number. I suspect that it is inflated anywhere from about 10 - 30%.)

 

[chipbennett]

Meh. People shorting phrases all the time. Of course they mean running a HIGH temperature. It's okay if even "experts" use colloquial language every now and again.

We can certainly get into some pedantic crap on INGO (who, me?!?), but c'mon now: is this really what we're going to quibble about? Having a fever vs running a fever vs running a temperature vs running a high temperature?

Does anyone not understand what is meant by any of those phrases? We are delving into distinction without a difference territory.

 

[smokingman]

While the disease matters and could impact your life in real ways it is no longer my focus. I still intend on doing my best to not catch it,but my focus has changed to dealing with others response. Be it the federal government,state government,local mayor,karen(s),business,or central banks.

...side note I may end up hiking in Iceland for a month as my sponsored PCT hike was canceled awhile back.Flying to Iceland is probably as cheap as it ever will be.

Life goes on.

Prepare for it and the unexpected.


Be well,be safe,you are loved.

 

[Mark-DuCo]

I know the numbers from Dubois County make it look way worse than it actually is. 101 of our 185 confirmed cases were from Farbest testing all their employees and 101 of them that tested positive had ZERO symptoms and are still fine, there were around 30 that had symptoms. According to our health department there have only been 8 people hospitalized due to this virus, and 2 deaths and from what i have heard the people that died were basically on their death bed the way it was, a cold would have done them in.

 

[T.Lex]

OK, help me data wonks - I'm right in seeing that in every age group, pneumonia has killed more than COVID-19 here in Indiana?
And under the age of 44, there's less than 50 deaths from COVID-19?
And almost no one under the age of 24 has died of either?


https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data



So either we did something right, or we over-reacted... I not going to say.

I think that's a horrible presentation of the data. And, one thing to note is the "footnote" (really a sidenote) that says cells with data in the 1-9 range have been suppressed due to confidentiality issues. So, I guess that means that data isn't the actual numbers?

For instance, Indiana-Male-1-4 years - there's no data in Pneumonia and Pneumonia/Influenza/Covid, but there are 56 total deaths for that cohort. It makes no sense.

OK...

look here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data


United States: All Sexes: All Ages: Full set from Feb 1 to May 16.
COVID-19 deaths: 68,998
Influenza deaths: 6,223


Sure COVID-19 deaths may less in later seasons (God willing), but right now, it's no beuno.
Flu deaths may be 50,000-80,000 per season (but it seems high given this data set), but the data I presented is "apples to apples", that is to say is over the same time period.

Even if there's a false attribution of gunshot and alcohol deaths to COVID-19, there's no way it could possibly make up the huge number of deaths.

When all this first started the argument was 20-40K then the goalposts moved to 60, and now we're up to 80K?
Fishy numbers from all sides, I say.

It's almost like flu and pneumonia deaths this season are generally all being attributed to COVID19 (whether that is accurate/appropriate or not - as a co-morbidity, it could be).

Questions for you, though: are 6,000 deaths normal for the flu in a given season? If not, why are you using that number to compare "normal" flu to COVID-19, and what does a "normal" flu season look like?

(Hint: 6,000 deaths is not a normal flu season. It is about 1/10 of a normal flu season. 60,000 - 80,000 deaths is fairly normal for a flu season. So, even at 100,000, COVID-19 would represent a fairly bad flue season - and I am on record not believing that 100,000 number. I suspect that it is inflated anywhere from about 10 - 30%.)

Aggregating these.

The flu deaths, unless something changed this year because of COVID, are also estimated. That is, the 6k/40k/60k is all modeling. The "normal" years are whatever the CDC has historically said, based on inaccurate reporting and then math.

And, as I think NNBD alluded to, the same precautions against COVID also mitigate the flu. In the absence of COVID, if we had done the same things to combat the flu, then flu deaths (whatever number that might be) would also be down.