Coronovirus III

[HoughMade]

Aren’t you about 140 years late on the Argument that the first amendment only constrains Congress??

C’mon now...

I have just barely started having fun with this.

...but if we’re going to use the judicially created “incorporation” doctrine, don’t we have to recognize that even with strict scrutiny, there can be restrictions on 1st Amendment rights?

...or do we only like judicially created rules of interpretation when we like the result?

 

[T.Lex]

...
...or do we only like judicially created rules of interpretation when we like the result?

Welcome to INGO, yadda yadda yadda....

 

[JCSR]

That may be true and time will tell.

I believe we know how to get back up but I am fearful of what we may take away from the last few months. Many have expressed this pandemic as an "opportunity" and you do not need to look very hard to see many power hungry vultures circling above. Will we as American's open our eyes this November election or will we allow ourselves to be "shut down" again in another way that is equally (or more so) devastating than the last few months?

After this difficult time, I am not as hopeful in the American citizen as I once was. I pray I am wrong. Many got a taste of socialism and they like it.

I wonder how the .gov response would have differed if it wasn't an election year?

 

[Fargo]

C’mon now...

I have just barely started having fun with this.

...but if we’re going to use the judicially created “incorporation” doctrine, don’t we have to recognize that even with strict scrutiny, there can be restrictions on 1st Amendment rights?

...or do we only like judicially created rules of interpretation when we like the result?

Well, I generally think that Arguments about the law benefit from everyone agreeing on which years law we are using...

That said, who really cares about the federal provisions when the Indiana analogs are actually unquestionably applicable.

 

[HoughMade]

...That said, who really cares about the federal provisions when the Indiana analogs are actually unquestionably applicable.

Good point, but when interpreting those provisions, I believe that a very similar result will be had.

 

[Fargo]

Good point, but when interpreting those provisions, I believe that a very similar result will be had.

I suppose that depends on whether or not we are applying the meaning of those provisions at the time they originated, versus what we say they mean now. Much like yourself I suspect, I find that to be kind of a comparison of Donatella Versace at 20 years of age versus her current appearance...

 

[Ziggidy]

It is a fact.

Well. A set of facts.


Yes, we do have control over the flu. Between vaccinations and treatments, other than very localized areas every few years, we control the societal ramifications to the extent we are comfortable doing so, individually and collectively.

"Control" doesn't mean zero infections or deaths. It means that we know what to do and when to do it to minimize the overall impact.



No ****.

When has a stay at home order ever been enforced, encouraged, monitored? Where are the comparable results? What makes this stay at home order factual?

It's illogical to create a economic crisis that is worse than the flu itself.

I may have agreed with the initial better safe than sorry concerns, but the turnaround has been going on for a couple of weeks and there is (IMO) no reason to delay reopening. Most models have been manipulated, argued over, changed, proven wrong; yet we are still holding on to the "possibility" of further destruction. At this point it no longer becomes a health concern but it becomes a power grab.

 

[jamil]

The projections were "wrong" because we changed our behavior.

In all honesty, I'm impatient. I want to go to my kids' events. I want to meet up with our friends. I want to go to our favorite restaurants. Heck, I even want to go to restaurants that I didn't like all that much.

But, when I look objectively at the numbers, I have real concerns that it is too early. It might not be. The capacity numbers are good, and I happen to know first-hand that there are contingencies in place if things go back to being on track for REALLY bad. But, we do not appear to have control over the transmission rate or deaths.

Selfishly, I want this to end May 1 in my county. Realistically, there is considerable risk in that.

We’re getting to the point where it’s time to decide which is more harmful. Being too early to open it up, or being too late. Open this ***** up. But smartly.

 

[T.Lex]

When has a stay at home order ever been enforced, encouraged, monitored? Where are the comparable results? What makes this stay at home order factual?

Are you claiming that our control over flu is a good example when comparing it to the china flu? More people have died from your controlled flu than the china flu, where we shut down the USA. Maybe we should apply those same controls to the current pandemic? It's illogical to create a economic crisis that is worse that the flu itself.

Lots of hysteria to unwind there.

But let's try.

There have been flu outbreaks, localized, that have been controlled. I recall college basketball being played in an empty stadium because of a local flu outbreak. That more people died historically from the flu is meaningless, because this coronavirus (and related COVID-19) is new.

And yes, it is a good example. When we have a vaccine for this coronavirus, and treatments, it will still kill people (and put them on ventilators but not kill them). No one knows how many or how often, but it will happen. By then, the herd immunity factor will be greatly increased and our health care capacity will be better positioned to handle it.

We can't apply the "same controls" to COVID because they don't exist.

I'm still waiting for links to how the economic crisis is "worse than" the epidemic. But, I was out the last few days, so maybe its been posted.

To the extent you are saying that this novel coronavirus would never have been as bad as the flu, upon what do you rely? That only ~60k people have died?

 

[JCSR]

We’re getting to the point where it’s time to decide which is more harmful. Being too early to open it up, or being too late. Open this ***** up. But smartly.

Exactly! If your of bad health, old and frail, scared or just too stupid to out in public and be responsible for your own actions then stay the hell at home!

 

[T.Lex]

We’re getting to the point where it’s time to decide which is more harmful. Being too early to open it up, or being too late. Open this ***** up. But smartly.

Yeah, IMHO we're right in that inflection point. I don't think we're "too late" though. Realistically, when schools let out in late May/June, that's when there's an influx of young workers anyway for seasonal employment. This year, that "seasonal" employment will be just about everything.

The economy will, painfully, come back whether we open May 1, May 15, or June 1. Trump is also probably right that, on the other side of this experience, domestic manufacturing might be more incentivized to come back. Long term, this will be a blip - very different than 2008 - whether we go now or later.

For the parts of Indiana with lower density, yeah, probably ok.

Here in Hamilton County and Marion County.... I have serious concerns. I hate agreeing with Hogsett (even more than I despise agreeing with Trump). But another 2 weeks is probably a good idea.

 

[jamil]

Lots of hysteria to unwind there.

But let's try.

There have been flu outbreaks, localized, that have been controlled. I recall college basketball being played in an empty stadium because of a local flu outbreak. That more people died historically from the flu is meaningless, because this coronavirus (and related COVID-19) is new.

And yes, it is a good example. When we have a vaccine for this coronavirus, and treatments, it will still kill people (and put them on ventilators but not kill them). No one knows how many or how often, but it will happen. By then, the herd immunity factor will be greatly increased and our health care capacity will be better positioned to handle it.

We can't apply the "same controls" to COVID because they don't exist.

I'm still waiting for links to how the economic crisis is "worse than" the epidemic. But, I was out the last few days, so maybe its been posted.

To the extent you are saying that this novel coronavirus would never have been as bad as the flu, upon what do you rely? That only ~60k people have died?

Forget a vaccine anytime soon. SARS still doesn’t have one. But there may be treatments that are effective.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I believe that those in charge acted in the interests of We, the People, to the best of their ability given the circumstances as they were understood back at the beginning of March.

It is human nature to internalize the latest data and perhaps modify history in light of that information. March 7 doesn't appear to be as scary on April 30 as it actually was on March 7. Back then, we....and that includes me and a lot of other folks here....thought we might have a crisis on our hands where over 1 million would die in short order from a plague.

It didn't happen. Great! But we don't need to rewrite history or blame anyone.

Let's figure out how we dig out of this. Frankly, as a 70 year old, my life didn't change all that much because of the virus and won't in the future...except I'm going to ask you to keep your distance and handshaking has probably become an anachronism.

Huh. So I guess a big ol' sloppy kiss is right outta the question then?

 

[T.Lex]

Forget a vaccine anytime soon. SARS still doesn’t have one. But there may be treatments that are effective.

Well, eventually there will be one. Yeah, I agree that the effective treatments will be here sooner. But even tamiflu isn't 100% effective.

SARS burned itself out. COVID doesn't appear to be following that same trajectory.

 

[Ziggidy]

To the extent you are saying that this novel coronavirus would never have been as bad as the flu, upon what do you rely? That only ~60k people have died?

To some extent, yes.

Let me get something straight here, I agree with common sense approaches to minimize the transmission. I agree that closing many businesses and schools MAY have helped and I also agree that going to that extreme will help with any transmittable disease (flu, colds etc.). It's common sense. My concern is the speed of opening things up and the excuses being used for such. The government is instilling fear into the population and the puppets are acting accordingly.

The trend is obvious, time to move on. Stop talking about it and do it. There is NO REASON to stop it.

 

[Alpo]

Huh. So I guess a big ol' sloppy kiss is right outta the question then?

Depends....



















I'm outta Depends.

 

[T.Lex]

...Frankly, as a 70 year old, my life didn't change all that much because of the virus and won't in the future...

Dude, you're 70? I never would've guessed.

I mean, you type like you're not a day over 65.

 

[nonobaddog]

To some extent, yes.

Let me get something straight here, I agree with common sense approaches to minimize the transmission. I agree that closing many businesses and schools MAY have helped and I also agree that going to that extreme will help with any transmittable disease (flu, colds etc.). It's common sense. My concern is the speed of opening things up and the excuses being used for such. The government is instilling fear into the population and the puppets are acting accordingly.

The trend is obvious, time to move on. Stop talking about it and do it. There is NO REASON to stop it.

Oh C'mon. The same reasons for no school and no clustering are still here. Everybody knows that. Yes, we definitely need to open up but ignoring reality is not a good plan.

 

[T.Lex]

The government is instilling fear into the population and the puppets are acting accordingly.

I'm only commenting on what I see from the federal, state, and local gov't. I don't see any "instilling fear" from them.

Puppets gonna puppet. I can't explain or defend that.

For me, the fear that is generated by the various levels of gov't is rooted in the idea that they might not actually know more than what we know. I am trusting that they have access to better information.

If they don't, then this could go VERY badly.

Good points:
- The mortality rate increase has dramatically slowed. Been in the 5% range for 2 weeks or so.
- The actual number of deaths is remaining pretty static. Maybe starting to trend lower, but too soon to tell.
- We have capacity in our medical infrastructure, and - very recently - went through the exercise of contingency planning to SIGNIFICANTLY increase capacity.

Bad points:
- The actual number of deaths is remaining pretty static.
- I just heard last night of starting to do contact tracing here in Indiana. Wait whut? If we haven't been doing that, then literally anyplace can be the next hotspot.
- Treatments are still very hit-and-miss. That isn't a criticism of the health professionals. I absolutely believe they do everything possible for every COVID patient. Its just that our tools are very limited right now.

 

[Alpo]

Dude, you're 70? I never would've guessed.

I mean, you type like you're not a day over 65.

Bless yer heart.