Coronovirus III

[foszoe]

I would think there would be differences between urban and rural areas in how they proceed.

I have been of the opinion they took recommendations for NYC and blanketed them across the country. That's how Cuomo's profile got so high with his press conferences. To some extent, I think state governors did the same thing.

News this morning said mayor stinky shoes was going to keep the city closed another two weeks after the governor's deadline. I don't see that earning him points with the locals, maybe he has his eye on a higher office.

 

[MCgrease08]

I didn't hear that (on WTHR anyhow). All they were talking about was that the governor was going to make an announcement tomorrow. Which news were you watching Leadeye? I'm sure there will be some that will be unhappy, but Marion County is pretty blue, so it might not be as unpopular among his fans as you might think.

I heard it on the radio this morning too during one of the traffic reports. Marion County extended SIP order through May 15.

 

[bwframe]

The libs what us closed through November, dependent on the gov't for our every need. Lotta folks in Marion County are really liking the free federal money.

One could only guess that the longer we stay locked down the closer to extending that gravy train beyond July.

Marion County extending stay-at-home order to May 15—with adjustments

 

[MCgrease08]

The libs what us closed through November, dependent on the gov't for our every need. Lotta folks in Marion County are really liking the free federal money.

One could only guess that the longer we stay locked down the closer to extending that gravy train beyond July.

Marion County extending stay-at-home order to May 15—with adjustments

They want that free money so much, some are even willing to murder the mail lady for not bringing the stimulus check. Allegedly.

https://fox59.com/news/crimetracker...arrier-shot-while-on-the-job-and-the-accused/

If the motive is proven true, I wonder if they will classify this poor woman's death as a COVID related death.

 

[OurDee]

They will sneek into the surrounding areas that are open.

 

[foszoe]

So far during this pandemic, I am getting more sick from watching all these "feel-good" commercials companies are putting out than I am from the dreaded coronavirus.

 

[JettaKnight]

I haven't read the studies yet to see what the theoretical effect was, only that it reduced hospital stay a bit. Fauci emphasized that his enthusiasm was based on demonstrating that you can do something about the virus, and that means we are likely to find better treatments in the future. He compared it to early HIV research, rather than suggesting it as a great solution. At least that was how I interpreted his comments.

[video=youtube;O7K2KI0EkHY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7K2KI0EkHY[/video]

 

[JettaKnight]

So far during this pandemic, I am getting more sick from watching all these "feel-good" commercials companies are putting out than I am from the dreaded coronavirus.

OMMYGOSH YES!!!

I've all but cut out broadcast TV, or at least had the remote ready to mute the mawkish crap.

 

[nonobaddog]

I haven't read the studies yet to see what the theoretical effect was, only that it reduced hospital stay a bit. Fauci emphasized that his enthusiasm was based on demonstrating that you can do something about the virus, and that means we are likely to find better treatments in the future. He compared it to early HIV research, rather than suggesting it as a great solution. At least that was how I interpreted his comments.

In regards to Indiana's growing cases vs increased testing, is there a way to track our % of positive tests? That seems to be a decent marker for identifying the trends.

Dr Box did emphasize they are also using hospitalizations and EMT runs as a marker for decision making.

Yes, I am certainly expecting more in the line of treatment than remdesivir offers.

 

[smokingman]

Unless you're confused about which clinical trial Fauci was talking about yesterday, this is nothing more than fear-mongering.

The leaked (uncontrolled, informal, non-peer-reviewed) China study results (as reported in The Lancet) are worthless. The trial was aborted because it didn't reach its enrollment target. You can't draw any conclusions from it, and in particular, you cannot draw the conclusion that Remdesivir doesn't work.

Fauci was talking about the results from a different study - a study that was actually completed, with formal results, that are in the process of being peer-reviewed. And Fauci didn't just say that Remdesivir did "some good" (spin, much?). It did exceptionally well.

And Gilead disclosed preliminary results from yet another trial, that showed similarly positive results.

I have to conclude that you're simply confused about which trial Fauci was referencing, because I know that you are better than this.

Posting the reality is not fear mongering.

NIH study.
Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).
More detailed information about the trial results, including more comprehensive data, will be available in a forthcoming report. As part of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s commitment to expediting the development and availability of potential COVID-19 treatments, the agency has been engaged in sustained and ongoing discussions with Gilead Sciences regarding making remdesivir available to patients as quickly as possible, as appropriate.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-even...esivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19
We will know more later,as it does not mention rather viral load is effected. I went with available data and posted the source. We may not know for a month or more the results of the NIH study.I would not say 31% have a 4 day shorter hospital stay is "exceptionally well".

 

[Trigger Time]

remdesivir had no impact on viral load

I posted the first clinical trial of remdesivir that showed no clinical difference between it and placebo.

We saw Dr. Fauchi speak about it 4/29/2020 saying it did some good for patients in a clinical study.(about that https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...velation-of-gilead-drug-results-idUSKBN22C0KX)


I have now reviewed that study and am not sure why he thinks that.

https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/wang-remdesivir/

"The most notable finding here might be the lack of any impact on viral load. Remdesivir’s mechanism of action is supposedly to reduce viral replication. If remdesivir is having any biological impact, this should be most easily detectable in terms of reduced viral titers (figure below). Lack of a signal here suggests that remdesivir has no biologically meaningful impact in these patients."

So we know another drug that does not work.If it does do anything it is doing so in a way we can not measure.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext


Here is John Hopkins view on case fatality rate,and a breakdown of it by age.

The CDC CFR break down of March data
Age Fatality rate
>85 10-27%
65-84 3-11%
55-64 1-3%
20-54 <1%
Current estimates suggest COVID-19 is ~6-10x worse than seasonal influenza but has a steep age gradient.

https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopki.../540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_

We have more drugs in clinical trials hopefully one of those will be more effective.


Indiana is sadly 4th in the USA in the percentage of increase in cases(through 4/29/2020). It is partly due to more testing to be sure.

Their numbers on deaths and the breakdown of pre existing conditions is flawed data. It is based on the number only extreme cases which required hospitalization. It does not take into account the larger numbers of citizens who had less or no symptoms and did not go to a hospital.
This is why the mortality rate numbers are so wrong and high. Well also the fact that they are over reporting covid deaths.

This is a new diseases yes. No it's not the same strain of the seasonal flu. But it is the same in its severity and the death rate.
It is NOT the plague that some people claim it to be.
Also this talk of it coming back even harder later in the year is ridiculous. I question why some people even leave their homes even before this. Why did they ever get into a car? Why would they ever own or shoot a firearm? Why would they have sex that could lead to pregnancy? Why do they eat doughnuts and other sweets that lead to diabetes? Why do they fly? Why do they swim in more than 3" of water? Why? Why? Why?
OH THE HUMANITY!!!

Seriously this is getting past the point of ridiculous. You are going to die of something and it is inevitable. Do not live in constant stress due to fear. Do not make your lives harder by tanking yourself and up or country financially and economically because you are afraid of this. Wear a mask and wash your hands. Do not touch your face.
If you are accepting anything at all from the outside world, especially people who are still lining up for carryout, you will get this eventually.
And the odds are, you will live. Even if you are old.
Remember when we were being lied to and told the death rate was 6%?
Well it's not. Its 0.1% or lower. Live life. When your time comes it comes.

 

[Ingomike]

So far during this pandemic, I am getting more sick from watching all these "feel-good" commercials companies are putting out than I am from the dreaded coronavirus.

Somewhere on Ingo there was a video post that demonstrated just how alike they all are, like one ad firm created a template, same music, message, and finish...

 

[nonobaddog]

Posting the reality is not fear mongering.

NIH study.
Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).
More detailed information about the trial results, including more comprehensive data, will be available in a forthcoming report. As part of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s commitment to expediting the development and availability of potential COVID-19 treatments, the agency has been engaged in sustained and ongoing discussions with Gilead Sciences regarding making remdesivir available to patients as quickly as possible, as appropriate.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-even...esivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19
We will know more later,as it does not mention rather viral load is effected. I went with available data and posted the source. We may not know for a month or more the results of the NIH study.I would not say 31% have a 4 day shorter hospital stay is "exceptionally well".

Right - "exceptionally well" is a huge overstatement.

On a different line - I have not seen any peer reviewed studies on this, and probably won't, but here is the best the muslims have come up with. It seems they think camel urine is a cure for many things including the chinese virus and diabetes. That gives them an advantage over us since we don't have a great supply of camels here.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...rine-islams-best-cure-for-coronavirus-n386492

 

[Trigger Time]

Right - "exceptionally well" is a huge overstatement.

On a different line - I have not seen any peer reviewed studies on this, and probably won't, but here is the best the muslims have come up with. It seems they think camel urine is a cure for many things including the chinese virus and diabetes. That gives them an advantage over us since we don't have a great supply of camels here.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...rine-islams-best-cure-for-coronavirus-n386492

I have a cure for them. Replace camel pee with nukes

 

[Phase2]

On a different line - I have not seen any peer reviewed studies on this, and probably won't, but here is the best the muslims have come up with. It seems they think camel urine is a cure for many things including the chinese virus and diabetes. That gives them an advantage over us since we don't have a great supply of camels here.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...rine-islams-best-cure-for-coronavirus-n386492

So, they have a huge strategic advantage in oil and camel pee now. So many INGOers have been using that inferior-grade human pee to sanitize things.

 

[Ingomike]

Their numbers on deaths and the breakdown of pre existing conditions is flawed data. It is based on the number only extreme cases which required hospitalization. It does not take into account the larger numbers of citizens who had less or no symptoms and did not go to a hospital.
This is why the mortality rate numbers are so wrong and high. Well also the fact that they are over reporting covid deaths.

This is a new diseases yes. No it's not the same strain of the seasonal flu. But it is the same in its severity and the death rate.
It is NOT the plaque that some people claim it to be.
Also this talk of it coming back even harder later in the year is ridiculous. I question why some people even leave their homes even before this. Why did they ever get into a car? Why would they ever own or shoot a firearm? Why would they have sex that could lead to pregnancy? Why do they eat doughnuts and other sweets that lead to diabetes? Why do they fly? Why do they swim in more than 3" of water? Why? Why? Why?
OH THE HUMANITY!!!

Seriously this is getting past the point of ridiculous. You are going to die of something and it is inevitable. Do not live in constant stress due to fear. Do not make your lives harder by tanking yourself and up or country financially and economically because you are afraid of this. Wear a mask and wash your hands. Do not touch your face.
If you are accepting anything at all from the outside world, especially people who are still lining up for carryout, you will get this eventually.
And the odds are, you will live. Even if you are old.
Remember when we were being lied to and told the death rate was 6%?
Well it's not. Its 0.1% or lower. Live life. When your time comes it comes.

We have discussed over and over, there is no reliable numerator nor denominator how can we reach a reasonable conclusion?

All that is going on is a fear driven overreaction that is making real problems exponentially worse, namely the supply chain disruption. When we should be fast tracking critical needs supplies, that will make the face mask shortage look like nothing, we sitting on our hands worried about that which we cannot control.

We we live in a time of affluent arrogance where the people believe we have unlimited financial resources and abilities to control nature.

Wake up people to the real problems...

 

[nonobaddog]

I think all the zoos here should do the right thing and collect all the camel pee and sell it to the muslims in our large cities. This could help with unemployment too - hire some muslims and give them buckets so they could follow the camels around all day.

 

[foszoe]

I understand, I think, where you are coming from, but there is actually no way to decide if the supply chain disruption is exponentially worse because, as you say, we don't know reliably the numerator or the denominator. I can't decide whether one thing is worse if if I can't reach a reasonable conclusion.

About the best I can do is engage in heuristics which can't by definition decide upon a long term solution.

We have discussed over and over, there is no reliable numerator nor denominator how can we reach a reasonable conclusion?

All that is going on is a fear driven overreaction that is making real problems exponentially worse, namely the supply chain disruption. When we should be fast tracking critical needs supplies, that will make the face mask shortage look like nothing, we sitting on our hands worried about that which we cannot control.

We we live in a time of affluent arrogance where the people believe we have unlimited financial resources and abilities to control nature.

Wake up people to the real problems...

 

[Ingomike]

I understand, I think, where you are coming from, but there is actually no way to decide if the supply chain disruption is exponentially worse because, as you say, we don't know reliably the numerator or the denominator. I can't decide whether one thing is worse if if I can't reach a reasonable conclusion.

About the best I can do is engage in heuristics which can't by definition decide upon a long term solution.

I've got one thing that is fairly reliable and I'm guessing you do too, your own two eyes. Have any significant predictions they made 6 weeks ago, that was the basis for shutdown been right? Just what have they been right on? Very little I've seen, how about you?

 

[T.Lex]

I've got one thing that is fairly reliable and I'm guessing you do too, your own two eyes. Have any significant predictions they made 6 weeks ago, that was the basis for shutdown been right? Just what have they been right on? Very little I've seen, how about you?

Odd.

The whole point is that 6 weeks ago they predicted that we needed to take drastic action to reduce physical interactions in order to prevent an epidemiological disaster. We've averted that disaster (so far).

That seems like a pretty big one to get right.