Coronavirus

[Ziggidy]

How about some good news?
-China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
- Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
- Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
- A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
- Apple reopens all 42 china stores.
- Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
- Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
- Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
- Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
- 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
- A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
- A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
- Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
- All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
So it's not all bad news. Let's care for each other and stay focused on the safety of those most vulnerable.
Panic and fear are contagious.
Spread HOPE-Please SHARE

 

[asevans]

I got it. I can stash my fishing poles under all my hvac tools and some copper pipe. Then if I get pulled over and asked for my papers I can say I’m headed to my elderly friends house to fix his AC. Thanks CM

 

[Hawkeye]

I think that trigger level has fallen to $5000 where cash is concerned

No. It still seems to be at the $10,000 level per a google search,

 

[hoosierdoc]

No. It still seems to be at the $10,000 level per a google search,

Or any series of transactions bank thinks you did to avoid the $10k threshold

 

[T.Lex]

Updated amateur modeling.

Numbers from yesterday (thanks qwerty) are 13,789 cases and 207 deaths, up from 9,259 and 150. Using 3/13 as a kind of "start date," these 2 columns show a straight 1.5x multiplier and then the average daily increase since 3/13 (currently 1.41x), through 3/31 for total deaths. Sidenote: the numbers are still so small that even a single life saved can significantly affect the model.

ETA: changed the format and info for it to hopefully make sense for people who aren't me. Which is most (but not all) of you. Basically, now, the numbers predict how many total dead at the end of the date at the right.

1.5	1.41
311	292	3/20/20
466	412	3/21/20
699	581	3/22/20
1,048	819	3/23/20
1,572	1,155	3/24/20
2,358	1,629	3/25/20
3,537	2,297	3/26/20
5,305	3,240	3/27/20
7,958	4,569	3/28/20
11,937	6,444	3/29/20
17,905	9,089	3/30/20
26,857	12,818	3/31/20

Now, the good news is that we should start seeing the mitigating effects of the steps taken last week. From where I'm sitting, though, those steps, at a minimum, were the right thing to do.

 

[worddoer]

before Dos Equis, or whatever terrible beer is killing folks.

PBR virus? Seems to fit better to me.

 

[T.Lex]

Some info from actual disease modelers.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/20/the-best-case-outcome-for-the-coronavirus-and-the-worst/

One guy says the US best case is 1.1M dead. Well, personally, I'd take the under on that. But, if that's the guy's "best case" for the US, it ain't that great.

 

[ditcherman]

How about some good news?
-China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
- Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
- Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
- A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
- Apple reopens all 42 china stores.
- Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
- Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
- Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
- Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
- 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
- A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
- A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
- Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
- All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
So it's not all bad news. Let's care for each other and stay focused on the safety of those most vulnerable.
Panic and fear are contagious.
Spread HOPE-Please SHARE

You must spread blah blah blah.
Faith, hope, and love.... What do we have without those? So even when things look bleakest we carry on the best we know how.

There are some really great things in here, some real game changers. We need to be the best people we can be.

 

[Expat]

Some info from actual disease modelers.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/20/the-best-case-outcome-for-the-coronavirus-and-the-worst/

One guy says the US best case is 1.1M dead. Well, personally, I'd take the under on that. But, if that's the guy's "best case" for the US, it ain't that great.

I think I posted a week or so ago. John Hopkins was projecting an infection rate of 50% in the US within this year. Take that number times whatever mortality rate you want to use but if they average 1%, then the expected number dead is closer to 1.8 million. If you drop to .4% which is the lowest I have seen, you are still talking over 700,000 dead.

 

[Cameramonkey]

We get to shoot Liberators? Cool! Sign me up!

...what are we resisting?

PANTS!

The world is doomed and our savior is; KYLIE JENNER???!!!!

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/kylie-jenner-urge-gen-z-155537692.html

Well at least according to the surgeon general.

TLDR Are we all supposed to change genders to hide from this thing? Is that it?

 

[ditcherman]

The Obama administration weaponized a LOT of government agencies to push their agenda. Part of that agenda was to grow government.

These agencies learned over the eight years of that administration to regulate their way into growth and self preservation.

We will not be able to just reel that back in quickly. However, this tragic exposure may well help us get it started.

There are good things that come out of every tragedy, and this could be one of them, if things go just right.

 

[T.Lex]

I think I posted a week or so ago. John Hopkins was projecting an infection rate of 50% in the US within this year. Take that number times whatever mortality rate you want to use but if they average 1%, then the expected number dead is closer to 1.8 million. If you drop to .4% which is the lowest I have seen, you are still talking over 700,000 dead.

Yeah, those numbers are depressing.

But, I think there are more variables involved, including further mutations of the virus itself to become less fatal.

Even if those variables shift the current "best case" to the prospective "worst case" - it still sucks.

 

[worddoer]

Why does it always seem to be true progress happens in a crisis when government removes the barriers it put in the way of private enterprise?

Because capitalism works. And the government is only a hindrance that limits and slows capitalism. A great example is to look at what happened to the American economy during WWII. We became the worlds leader in manufacturing and inventing. The number of issues that capitalism fixed that government could not was not able to be fully recognized until years after the war due to sheer volume of solutions capitalism brought.

Edited to add: That mostly came because the government realized that without private enterprise, they were in deep trouble. They pulled off many of the chains they had thrown on private enterprise and worked to support them instead of hinder them.

 

[qwerty]

I have updated the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

A couple items to note. I would not poo-poo the work regarding Chloroquine because some doctors got ahead of themselves. The use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine with regards to SARS and other Coronavirus is well documented. Although most of these were In Vitro you have to start somewhere. The Numbers in South Korea are actually pretty staggering dropping from 851 cases a day on March 3rd, down to 35 a day on March 10th. There is a slight bump to 152 on yesterday. The current treatment guidelines published on February 13 states, "For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day." It does go on to say, "There is no evidence that using lopinavir/ritonavir with chloroquine is more effective than monotherapies" but it is interesting they are using it, most likely as a zinc ionophore to help cell penetration.

The chinese were using it as well, "Here we found that treating the patients diagnosed as novel coronavirus pneumonia with chloroquine might improve the success rate of treatment, shorten hospital stay and improve patient outcome. In order to guide and regulate the use of chloroquine in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia, the multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia developed this expert consensus after extensive discussion. It recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, 500mg twice per day for 10 days for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia and without contraindications to chloroquine."

Additional Resources:
8/22/2005: Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread
11/4/2010: Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture
10/1/2014: Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore
Another interesting one although not related to chloroquine: First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States

There was someone on here that works on ventilators, I was wondering if they could answer it the disposable ventilators are adjustable as far as decreasing Tidal Volume, increasing the respirations, and positive end expiratory pressure.

The other thing to note, is that depending on what study you refer to, 50-80% of people infected will not seek medical treatment because they are asymptomatic or their symptoms are not severe enough to seek medical treatment. So....just keep that in mind when doing the numbers.

Regards

 

[MarkC]

Because capitalism works. And the government is only a hindrance that limits and slows capitalism. A great example is to look at what happened to the American economy during WWII. We became the worlds leader in manufacturing and inventing. The number of issues that capitalism fixed that government could not was not able to be fully recognized until years after the war due to sheer volume of solutions capitalism brought.

Edited to add: That mostly came because the government realized that without private enterprise, they were in deep trouble. They pulled off many of the chains they had thrown on private enterprise and worked to support them instead of hinder them.

The basic underlying tenet: if there's money to be made (i.e. a market for a good or service), someone will provide it.

The proper role for government is to provide a stable, predictable, level playing field where business can flourish. Not to pick winners and losers, as Senator Warren and her ilk want to implement for "fairness."

 

[ditcherman]

I have updated the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

A couple items to note. I would not poo-poo the work regarding Chloroquine because some doctors got ahead of themselves. The use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine with regards to SARS and other Coronavirus is well documented. Although most of these were In Vitro you have to start somewhere. The Numbers in South Korea are actually pretty staggering dropping from 851 cases a day on March 3rd, down to 35 a day on March 10th. There is a slight bump to 152 on yesterday. The current treatment guidelines published on February 13 states, "For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day." It does go on to say, "There is no evidence that using lopinavir/ritonavir with chloroquine is more effective than monotherapies" but it is interesting they are using it, most likely as a zinc ionophore to help cell penetration.

The chinese were using it as well, "Here we found that treating the patients diagnosed as novel coronavirus pneumonia with chloroquine might improve the success rate of treatment, shorten hospital stay and improve patient outcome. In order to guide and regulate the use of chloroquine in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia, the multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia developed this expert consensus after extensive discussion. It recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, 500mg twice per day for 10 days for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia and without contraindications to chloroquine."

Additional Resources:
8/22/2005: Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread
11/4/2010: Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture
10/1/2014: Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore
Another interesting one although not related to chloroquine: First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States

There was someone on here that works on ventilators, I was wondering if they could answer it the disposable ventilators are adjustable as far as decreasing Tidal Volume, increasing the respirations, and positive end expiratory pressure.

The other thing to note, is that depending on what study you refer to, 50-80% of people infected will not seek medical treatment because they are asymptomatic or their symptoms are not severe enough to seek medical treatment. So....just keep that in mind when doing the numbers.

Regards

Paging Dr Wolfhound, Dr Wolfhound to the thread please

 

[Oldgunfan]

I have updated the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

A couple items to note. I would not poo-poo the work regarding Chloroquine because some doctors got ahead of themselves. The use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine with regards to SARS and other Coronavirus is well documented. Although most of these were In Vitro you have to start somewhere. The Numbers in South Korea are actually pretty staggering dropping from 851 cases a day on March 3rd, down to 35 a day on March 10th. There is a slight bump to 152 on yesterday. The current treatment guidelines published on February 13 states, "For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day." It does go on to say, "There is no evidence that using lopinavir/ritonavir with chloroquine is more effective than monotherapies" but it is interesting they are using it, most likely as a zinc ionophore to help cell penetration.

The chinese were using it as well, "Here we found that treating the patients diagnosed as novel coronavirus pneumonia with chloroquine might improve the success rate of treatment, shorten hospital stay and improve patient outcome. In order to guide and regulate the use of chloroquine in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia, the multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia developed this expert consensus after extensive discussion. It recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, 500mg twice per day for 10 days for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia and without contraindications to chloroquine."

Additional Resources:
8/22/2005: Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread
11/4/2010: Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture
10/1/2014: Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore
Another interesting one although not related to chloroquine: First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States

There was someone on here that works on ventilators, I was wondering if they could answer it the disposable ventilators are adjustable as far as decreasing Tidal Volume, increasing the respirations, and positive end expiratory pressure.

The other thing to note, is that depending on what study you refer to, 50-80% of people infected will not seek medical treatment because they are asymptomatic or their symptoms are not severe enough to seek medical treatment. So....just keep that in mind when doing the numbers.

Regards

Impressive survey of the literature here!

 

[Wolfhound]

Paging Dr Wolfhound, Dr Wolfhound to the thread please

I am certainly not a doctor but I do work on Ventilators. Lol

The disposable vents are a very basic pneumatic mechanism that provide little to no adjustment. You can adjust FiO2 level but that's it on the models I've seen. No adjustment for Tidal Volume, Respiratory Rate or PEEP. I have never operated one as they have no repairable parts and are truly disposable.

Maybe someone else has more experience with them and can chime in on this.

 

[BugI02]

Why does it always seem to be true progress happens in a crisis when government removes the barriers it put in the way of private enterprise?

Because there are way more Mitt Romneys in congress than Rand Pauls?

 

[T.Lex]

I can't help but notice that in places like Spain and France, their mortality rate is slowly creeping up. It isn't clear whether it is because more testing of people who are sick, so there will be a bias of confirmed cases to those who ultimately die, or if there's something else going on.

France had been aligned with us at < 2%, but is now up to about 3.4%. Spain had been in the 2% range (IIRC) and is now up to about 4.3%. Italy is still running hot at about 8.3%. Perhaps notably, the UK is at about 4.3%, too.