Coronavirus

[SheepDog4Life]

How about some good news?
-China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
- Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
- Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
- A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
- Apple reopens all 42 china stores.
- Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
- Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
- Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
- Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
- 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
- A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
- A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
- Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
- All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
So it's not all bad news. Let's care for each other and stay focused on the safety of those most vulnerable.
Panic and fear are contagious.
Spread HOPE-Please SHARE

Thank you, Z, there is hope that one or more of these treatments/preventatives will be effective... and soon.

Defnitely hope for the best, and be prepared for the worst.

Some info from actual disease modelers.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/20/the-best-case-outcome-for-the-coronavirus-and-the-worst/

One guy says the US best case is 1.1M dead. Well, personally, I'd take the under on that. But, if that's the guy's "best case" for the US, it ain't that great.

T, I definitely hope that it'll be well under that... that a preventative/treatment/vaccine arrives soon and breaks the epidemic curve.

Otherwise, I've posted enough on the worst case.

 

[utahskies]

Oak Park, Illinois Shelter in Place

Just closed non essential businesses, police not doing any enforcement of anything.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I can't help but notice that in places like Spain and France, their mortality rate is slowly creeping up. It isn't clear whether it is because more testing of people who are sick, so there will be a bias of confirmed cases to those who ultimately die, or if there's something else going on.

France had been aligned with us at < 2%, but is now up to about 3.4%. Spain had been in the 2% range (IIRC) and is now up to about 4.3%. Italy is still running hot at about 8.3%. Perhaps notably, the UK is at about 4.3%, too.

T, there is a lag between reported confirmed cases and fatalities. This is true on the up-slope of the confirmed cases curve, and likely also true for a period after peak, I would guess by a week or three.

 

[BugI02]

Careful what you ask for...oh boy.

I have a bit more reading to do.
Over 24,000 coronavirus research papers are now available in one place

https://pages.semanticscholar.org/coronavirus-research

You have to down load entire subsets(zip files). I did all of them to my pc roughly 250Gig of data.
I will do my best to dig through them,especially the peer reviewed formerly behind pay wall papers.I had a few accounts for some of those types but not nearly all.So most of those papers will be new to me.

This is going to take some time.

First of many updates I am sure.
Sad to have to bring this one up but facts are facts.
In hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavir–ritonavir treatment beyond standard care.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282

Actual clinical trial of 99 patients and 100 control patients.
Peer reviewed study.

I read about this result a couple of days ago. Since it is China telling us these things, I sort of hope we have at least a couple of people checking their work

 

[T.Lex]

T, there is a lag between reported confirmed cases and fatalities. This is true on the up-slope of the confirmed cases curve, and likely also true for a period after peak, I would guess by a week or three.

Yeah, as an amateur, I'm taking advantage of the assumption that that kinda nets out across all of the reporting agencies. That is, the lag hits all the numbers with the same effect.

On a related note, part of why I'm posting my short-term modeling is that I think the REALLY BIG NUMBERS are difficult for people to wrap their head around. "We're only at a couple hundred deaths, no way we get to a million!" I was skeptical of those numbers myself.

But, with the shorter term modeling, it can reveal how we get to 10k, then 20k, then 100k and it is easier for people to see it.

 

[BugI02]

Even if what you clam is wrong, partially wrong or just theory? How do you know what you're posting is accurate and not fake news driven by TDS?

The same way we seperate fact from fiction now. Pick a fact/story that concerns you or you're curious about and cross check it and the sources to see if it makes sense and then make your own decision. I don't think even highly reputable medical organizations can really say too much with a high degree of confidence just yet. Also triple check anything you hear from any news outlet, they're all kind of losing editorial control (the ones that still had any)

Only the government is going to try to tell you what to do, and they don't always have your best interests at heart. Trust but verify

 

[Keith_Indy]

Now, here I thought the tornado test was supposed to be canceled and it's going off here in Fortville...

TIME TO RUN AROUND SCREAMING IN PANIC YET?

 

[ditcherman]

The same way we seperate fact from fiction now. Pick a fact/story that concerns you or you're curious about and cross check it and the sources to see if it makes sense and then make your own decision. I don't think even highly reputable medical organizations can really say too much with a high degree of confidence just yet. Also triple check anything you hear from any news outlet, they're all kind of losing editorial control (the ones that still had any)

Only the government is going to try to tell you what to do, and they don't always have your best interests at heart. Trust but verify

I feel like every radio host I listen to (not to mention influencers) is trying to tell me what to do and how to think. I think they’re the sheep factory. People pick wibc or npr and settle in for the ride, going farther down their path. (Neither one is correct.)
We are so far away from absolute truth and so conditioned to think in terms of self-truth that we might not recognize absolute truth until it hits us square on. Like now.

 

[cbhausen]

My wife works in healthcare and she says announcements possibly today and a lockdown 24-48 hours thereafter. Workers are getting check point cards so they can travel as necessary personnel. This is through a co-worker who knows someone who works in the Governor's office.

 

[Trigger Time]

We may need a war with China after all of this for the economy to recover faster

 

[churchmouse]

I have folks that need heat. New furnaces sitting in my shop ready to go. I will be doing this work. Period.
Not just going fishing. Going to help people.

 

[ditcherman]

We may need a war with China after all of this for the economy to recover faster

Dad?
Is that you?

(haha just kidding but it sounds just like what my dad would say, and he was borderline genius.)

 

[raider600]

What will FEMA have to say here soon?

 

[ditcherman]

I have folks that need heat. New furnaces sitting in my shop ready to go. I will be doing this work. Period.
Not just going fishing. Going to help people.

I think you’ll be able too. The rumors of military style complete lockdowns are unlikely, it hasn’t happened anywhere yet.
I have a good friend who was visiting his daughter in Cali and is trying to get out, waiting til tomorrow and renting a car so that all complicates things. He seems optimistic about his escape.

By the way, good to see you. I thought we lost you. Apparently the rumors of your demise were greatly exaggerated?

 

[BiscuitsandGravy]

I have folks that need heat. New furnaces sitting in my shop ready to go. I will be doing this work. Period.
Not just going fishing. Going to help people.

I think you’ll be able too. The rumors of military style complete lockdowns are unlikely, it hasn’t happened anywhere yet.
I have a good friend who was visiting his daughter in Cali and is trying to get out, waiting til tomorrow and renting a car so that all complicates things. He seems optimistic about his escape.

By the way, good to see you. I thought we lost you. Apparently the rumors of your demise were greatly exaggerated?

CM is back on line.

 

[ditcherman]

Now, here I thought the tornado test was supposed to be canceled and it's going off here in Fortville...

TIME TO RUN AROUND SCREAMING IN PANIC YET?

Definitely. Maybe start shooting straight up into the air?

 

[ljk]

Eli Lilly to start coronavirus testing with same-day or overnight results available

The test will be free of charge for patients, insurers, hospitals and government agencies, said David A. Ricks, Lilly’s chairman and chief executive officer.
“This is one contribution we can make to help slow the spread of coronavirus in our community,” he said. “Today we are marshaling our people and our assets to confront and defeat the novel coronavirus in our state.”
Unlike other private labs that can take days to return test results, the Lilly test result should be available either the same day or overnight, Skovronsky said. The actual testing process will only take four to six hours. Samples will be run in batches.
State health officials greeted the news that Lilly’s entry into testing could be a game changer.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news...-free-coronavirus-testing-indiana/2869930001/

 

[HoughMade]

I think you’ll be able too. The rumors of military style complete lockdowns are unlikely, it hasn’t happened anywhere yet...

I'll never say never, but cops and soldiers just can't keep secrets like this. Also, huge disruption for not much gain.

Again, the goal was never "0" spread. Welcome to the concept of "acceptable loss".

What we will likely see is a "essential travel only" order. Food, other necessary supplies, work, medical care- other than that, stay put.

 

[MarkC]

I'll never say never, but cops and soldiers just can't keep secrets like this. Also, huge disruption for not much gain.

Again, the goal was never "0" spread. Welcome to the concept of "acceptable loss".

What we will likely see is a "essential travel only" order. Food, other necessary supplies, work, medical care- other than that, stay put.

Quoted for Truth; when I was on the department, the rumor mill could put the stereotypical "old wives" network to shame. Everybody loved a good rumor.

 

[nonobaddog]

Yup. If you haven't heard a good rumor by 10:00 am.... start one!