Coronavirus

[smokingman]

Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus

Posting without comment.

I will post some points he makes in the article.

The woefully inadequate data we have so far, the meta-research specialist argues, indicates that the extreme measures taken by many countries are likely way out of line and may result in ultimately unnecessary and catastrophic consequences. Due to extremely limited testing, we are likely missing “the vast majority of infections” from COVID-19, he states, thus making reported fatality rates from the World Health Organization “meaningless.”

It appears as if the title is a bit misleading. He is actually saying we do not know what we do not know,and if this is less sever than we are guessing then we over reacted,if it is more sever we may be reducing spread by an unknown degree.We simply do not know enough.0

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

The professor's point about a lack of data is well made, but also useless.

In the human experience, it isn't obvious that a situation will be an emergency... until it is obvious it is an emergency.

This hit Wuhan like a ton of bricks. Were their failures, both under-reactions and over-reactions? Sure. But it was deadly on a fairly big scale.

His point about not knowing the fatality rates is the real problem. To do that, you need testing that doesn't (or didn't) exist. Until that get online, so that you can make fact-based decisions, you're struggling in the fog of war (or the epidemiological equivalent).

No way to know the "best" reaction until it is over.

Well.

We may get another opportunity to react to this in the Fall, when it comes around again.

Wonder how many anti-vaxxers will refuse that vaccination when it becomes available.

 

[BugI02]

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1240354040204197889/photo/1

BKX banking index today.

Re the guy tweeting he expects a big dead cat bounce, bear markets don't bounce they just grind on for 7-9 months

 

[DoggyDaddy]

The Spanish Flu did not come from Spain. Check your history. Spain was the only country that was not all hush hush about it. So, got it named after them.

So it's even more "racist" to blame it on them!

 

[femurphy77]

WTF reads Yahoo! news?

Happily looking for another "homepage" but not as computer savvy as some of our more enlightened members. It's easy and quick but close to the onion for reliable "reporting".

 

[smokingman]

Happily looking for another "homepage" but not as computer savvy as some of our more enlightened members. It's easy and quick but close to the onion for reliable "reporting".

You where right to post it. I immediately dug for more sources based on your article.

I have yet to find the 100 page federal report on Covid-19,but apparently the New York times has seen it and posted a very similar story to the one you linked.
As has Bloomberg and now cnn.

You did well.I tried to rep you but can not.
Unrelated to previous post.


In 18 of New Jersey's 21 counties there is a case of coronavirus, according to the state officials. The largest number of cases are concentrated in Bergen County which has 27 new cases for a total of 113.
Patients range in age from 5 to 95 and more than 50 percent of these patients in New Jersey are hospitalized.
Conveying the serious nature of the virus, Gov. Phil Murphy addressed people he described as “non-believers” and said, “Believe us, trust us.”
Officials said the two new deaths were both females over 60 and had underlying health conditions.
No decisions have been made in the state about closing schools for the rest of the year.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-18-20-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[smokingman]

Digestive symptoms were the “chief complaint” in nearly half of COVID-19 cases, small study says

Digestive symptoms may be more common in coronavirus infections than previously thought, with a small study released Wednesday finding that symptoms such as diarrhea and a loss of appetite were the “chief complaint” in nearly half of more than 200 confirmed COVID-19 cases.


The research suggests that, during the coronavirus pandemic, clinicians may need to look beyond the major Covid-19 symptoms identified by US health officials: fever, cough and shortness of breath.
That’s because many patients infected with coronavirus, according to the study, may initially present to the hospital with diarrhea, anorexia and vomiting – not necessarily with respiratory symptoms.
Even when researchers excluded anorexia – a loss of appetite or aversion to food – they found that 1 in 5 coronavirus patients still came to the hospital with diarrhea, vomiting or abdominal pain.

While the researchers cautioned that larger studies would be needed to confirm their findings, they warned that “if clinicians solely monitor for respiratory symptoms to establish case definitions for COVID-19, they may miss cases initially presenting with extra-pulmonary symptoms, or the disease may not be diagnosed later until respiratory symptoms emerge.”
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-18-20-intl-hnk/index.html


[h=2]American Farm Bureau: "US farms and ranches could face a serious labor shortage"[/h]
“We are hearing reports from around the country from our members about specific issues that challenge their ability to put food on America’s tables,” wrote American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall in letter sent to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue.

I mentioned this would be a problem. H2A visa problem.

It will become more of an issue as time passes.
https://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/f...industries-could-face-serious-labor-shortage/

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Oh, and quick note about "new" cases.

Until we have a better handle on the overall spread of this, the "new" cases are really "existing" cases that have been newly identified. The quickly increasing numbers are unlikely to be new infections, but more accurate mapping of who already has it.

Figured almost everyone already knows this, but it bears repeating. No need to panic if confirmed cases spike. That's actually a good thing IMHO.

They will... per the presser today, commercial testing at 2000 locations is coming on line this week with capability of 1M tests per day... which will rapidly process samples taken over the past 5-7 days.

 

[HoughMade]

Wonder how many anti-vaxxers will refuse that vaccination when it becomes available.

Um....the one's I have heard from think was all a conspiracy to trick people into vaccinations.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Um....the one's I have heard from think was all a conspiracy to trick people into vaccinations.

A conspiracy? That’s a lot of moving pieces to pull an event of this magnitude off. But I’m sure there’s already YouTube videos out there already explaining how it’s happened, in great and probably convincing detail.

 

[maxwelhse]

Happily looking for another "homepage" but not as computer savvy as some of our more enlightened members. It's easy and quick but close to the onion for reliable "reporting".

I use Yahoo too. I can tell by the headlines what is worth reading and the general condition of the world. If it's all celebrity news, Trump didn't tweet anything. If it's all Orange Man Bad, then he probably tweeted something I generally approve of.

It gives me a good 10 second overview of how the day is going... and the comments on the articles are just hilarious sometimes.

 

[BugI02]

Digestive symptoms were the “chief complaint” in nearly half of COVID-19 cases, small study says

Digestive symptoms may be more common in coronavirus infections than previously thought, with a small study released Wednesday finding that symptoms such as diarrhea and a loss of appetite were the “chief complaint” in nearly half of more than 200 confirmed COVID-19 cases.


The research suggests that, during the coronavirus pandemic, clinicians may need to look beyond the major Covid-19 symptoms identified by US health officials: fever, cough and shortness of breath.
That’s because many patients infected with coronavirus, according to the study, may initially present to the hospital with diarrhea, anorexia and vomiting – not necessarily with respiratory symptoms.
Even when researchers excluded anorexia – a loss of appetite or aversion to food – they found that 1 in 5 coronavirus patients still came to the hospital with diarrhea, vomiting or abdominal pain.

While the researchers cautioned that larger studies would be needed to confirm their findings, they warned that “if clinicians solely monitor for respiratory symptoms to establish case definitions for COVID-19, they may miss cases initially presenting with extra-pulmonary symptoms, or the disease may not be diagnosed later until respiratory symptoms emerge.”
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-18-20-intl-hnk/index.html


American Farm Bureau: "US farms and ranches could face a serious labor shortage"


“We are hearing reports from around the country from our members about specific issues that challenge their ability to put food on America’s tables,” wrote American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall in letter sent to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue.

I mentioned this would be a problem. H2A visa problem.

It will become more of an issue as time passes.
https://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/f...industries-could-face-serious-labor-shortage/

Time to put Joe Arpaio in charge of the 'Leg-Linked Temporary Emergency Labor Force'

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...mpaign=pol&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus

Posting without comment.

Just this part is off by almost an order of magnitude, 8x too low, so I stopped reading right there:

But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).

7 deaths among 700 infected is 1% death rate. Five times lower is 0.2% and five times higher is 5%.

 

[Alpo]

He's apparently highly respected in his field, but I had a hard time discerning anything from the article supporting his conclusion that we are over-reacting. As someone said: we don't know what we don't know.

I don't expect he'll be getting many invitations to cocktail parties in the next few weeks. Perhaps that is the problem.....

 

[ditcherman]

Re the guy tweeting he expects a big dead cat bounce, bear markets don't bounce they just grind on for 7-9 months

Not to get too technical on you, but if you throw a cat off a cliff and there is a rock sticking out and it hits it, you could call it a bounce.

 

[ghitch75]

[h=1]Most Fish & Wildlife Area shooting ranges will reopen March 19[/h]
https://www.gcdailyworld.com/story/2676450.html

 

[Trigger Time]

Of the younger folks dying or in critical care that they said had no other health conditions, I wonder how many possibly vape or smoke?

 

[Route 45]

Yeah, we can just nuke them and then have a chat with the Indians about their policy of reserving certain drugs for domestic use. If we have the Indians on board, we don't need the Chinese

You might want to look into where India gets the raw materials for a lot of "their" meds.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Eli Lilly has free testing, same-day or overnight results

https://www.indystar.com/story/news...-free-coronavirus-testing-indiana/2869930001/