Coronavirus II

[CountryBoy1981]

I want to make sure I am calculating this correctly. I want to first say I know there are cases that have not confirmed and are not put into this calculation. The number of cases doubles approximately every 6 days and it takes approximately 24 to 30 days for the virus to run its course from the date of infection (death vs. recovery). If there are currently 104,463 confirmed cases and 1,702 deaths, we cannot use the 104,463 number to calculate the case fatality rate because most of those numbers come from cases that have not run its course.

Then using the 6 day doubling rate, 6 days ago there was 52,232 cases. 12 days ago, there were 26,116 cases, 18 days ago there was 13,058 cases, and 24 days ago there was 6,529 cases. The deaths, 1,702 actually come from the people infected 24+ days ago, the 6,529 confirmed cases. Using that number, it would be a 26.1% death rate of the confirmed cases. Would this be a correct analysis? Again, this is only of the confirmed cases, we do not know how many unconfirmed cases there are that would be in this pool and that would drop the death rate by whatever that number is.

 

[smokingman]

Not to mention you hiked the Appalachian Trail in 5 months.

Listen here’s the deal where I’m at. I do appreciate what you have to offer but I’m afraid the message gets drowned out by the blowing of your own horn sometimes.

You seem to be seeking accolades for your endeavors and it tends to rub some people the wrong way IMO.

Just an observation. Carry on.

Blowing my own horn is a defense mechanism and I admit it.

What I would actually like is to not have to fight and argue about the reality of our situation.

I can be proven wrong. I do not have any trouble accepting when I am. The prof though needs to be based on facts,not opinion though.

I will put try to put down the horn.

Mentally this is just as tough and maybe tougher for me personally than many.

Understanding how we got to where we are at this moment in our history,and where it will likely put us 2 years is tough.

Being attacked for trying to warn people,sharing information based on facts that often disagree with politics or other opinions has been going on more and more.

I understand people want good news. I understand they want to feel better.

What I want them to understand is we are still swinging a bat standing beside home plate. We have not even made it to first base against this and the path to
get back to home base is going to be a long one.

We will get there.And understanding where we are will help.

Sorry if I came off as seeking accolades,it is something I will work on and understand that I have actually done it.

Be well,be safe,you are loved.

 

[smokingman]

I want to make sure I am calculating this correctly. I want to first say I know there are cases that have not confirmed and are not put into this calculation. The number of cases doubles approximately every 6 days and it takes approximately 24 to 30 days for the virus to run its course from the date of infection (death vs. recovery). If there are currently 104,463 confirmed cases and 1,702 deaths, we cannot use the 104,463 number to calculate the case fatality rate because most of those numbers come from cases that have not run its course.

Then using the 6 day doubling rate, 6 days ago there was 52,232 cases. 12 days ago, there were 26,116 cases, 18 days ago there was 13,058 cases, and 24 days ago there was 6,529 cases. The deaths, 1,702 actually come from the people infected 24+ days ago, the 6,529 confirmed cases. Using that number, it would be a 26.1% death rate of the confirmed cases. Would this be a correct analysis? Again, this is only of the confirmed cases, we do not know how many unconfirmed cases there are that would be in this pool and that would drop the death rate by whatever that number is.

Yes in that the death rate can not be compared to current cases as is currently being done.

No in that the number also does not count how many people that have it have never been tested.

In short we are currently close to blind as far as the death rate.

 

[Ingomike]

I learned from another poster part of why this was. We have things like private surgery centers that where not counted in what I posted.
Your post states critical care beds as well which is an apple to oranges comparison. It not the same as total number of beds.

It is interesting how by what you posted we seem to have the most capacity on earth in our ICU system,but I am not sure that is the reality.
I have not had time to deep dive the studies and find out what information they included. Either the one I posted or the one you just did.

There are data point in both studies. I was trying to point out I thought some other countries medical systems might handle this better than ours.

I do not feel that thought is incorrect,but data may prove me wrong.

Thank you for sharing the article.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...are-beds-per-capita-infographic/#528be4857f86

Forgot the link...

 

[CountryBoy1981]

Yes in that the death rate can not be compared to current cases as is currently being done.

No in that the number also does not count how many people that have it have never been tested.

In short we are currently close to blind as far as the death rate.

Although not a true number of all cases, the confirmed cases have had to meet a certain criteria for testing and that death rate would be more reflective for the people who have to be hospitalized due to this as that is the reason as to why they have been tested. For all total cases (including unconfirmed), my guess is between 1 to 3% but I have no clue what that number actually is.

 

[Trigger Time]

Heres the thing. We wont let this stop us. If we have to return to work and catch it and take our chances to keep our country running then that's what we will do. We will build more hospitals. We will hire and train more healthcare workers. We will create new healthcare positions just to handle coronavirus that require less school or degree time if thats what it takes. We will adapt. Other areas will be created and need workers. People still have money. This is NOTHING even close to the feeling of the state that people were in during the housing collapse or most of Obama's presidency. People have money to blow still now. I watch other hobbies and I'm telling you the things that were FLAT during the recession are still strong and booming. I'm not concerned. The economy is gonna roar back.
We WILL develope treatments and eventually a cure. This will not end us or continue on or stop us. This will not screw us for years to come. People (debbie downers) act like the unemployment numbers are the end of the world. Well no. No crap they are high and astronomical. We just shut the damn country down. You aren't sherlock Holmes.
Those numbers are going to come aay down soon. Very soon.
But no, America will not stay closed. We will be back open for business soon. Even if their is a "new normal" we will make it boom. And we will lead the way

 

[smokingman]

Although not a true number of all cases, the confirmed cases have had to meet a certain criteria for testing and that death rate would be more reflective for the people who have to be hospitalized due to this as that is the reason as to why they have been tested. For all total cases (including unconfirmed), my guess is between 1 to 3% but I have no clue what that number actually is.

If we follow the math of the cdc and WHO 5% need an ICU unit. So your past death rate according to that would be much lower than 25% of total cases.

I am not sure about the 5% ICU rate. Early studies back in January put that rate at 33%. I have seen no actual study that backs up the 5% rate,though it is often quoted in studies.

If you believe the 33% rate rather than the 5% rate the death rate is higher,but the total number of infected is much lower.

I think eventually it well settle somewhere in between those two.

 

[ljk]

[video=youtube_share;ifazauFn1wY]https://youtu.be/ifazauFn1wY[/video]

 

[bwframe]

One of the docs (the smokin' hot one) on FNC News at Night just said that we have hopes that warm temps and high humidity might fizzle this virus.

 

[jsx1043]

What you've described, doesn't describe a tool maker.
Tool makers are the ones that actually create, and maintain, the production line.
Parts that have to be cut, rolled, stamped, welded, or whatever.. that machinery doesn't just get pulled out of thin air by a magician.
The machinery is created by tool makers.

Bingo.

Apologies, no disrespect inferred to the tool and die folks. Not my forté, so I missed the mark some. My intended point was that I’d be proud to to work in the factory, even if it upset my schedule or normal routine, to produce products that would be needed by my fellow Americans.

I think that the companies that have gone full boat with developing and producing needed essentials during this time of crisis have shown what that American spirit used to be. That’s all I was getting at.

 

[Alpo]

Heres the thing. We wont let this stop us. If we have to return to work and catch it and take our chances to keep our country running then that's what we will do. We will build more hospitals. We will hire and train more healthcare workers. We will create new healthcare positions just to handle coronavirus that require less school or degree time if thats what it takes. We will adapt. Other areas will be created and need workers. People still have money. This is NOTHING even close to the feeling of the state that people were in during the housing collapse or most of Obama's presidency. People have money to blow still now. I watch other hobbies and I'm telling you the things that were FLAT during the recession are still strong and booming. I'm not concerned. The economy is gonna roar back.
We WILL develope treatments and eventually a cure. This will not end us or continue on or stop us. This will not screw us for years to come. People (debbie downers) act like the unemployment numbers are the end of the world. Well no. No crap they are high and astronomical. We just shut the damn country down. You aren't sherlock Holmes.
Those numbers are going to come aay down soon. Very soon.
But no, America will not stay closed. We will be back open for business soon. Even if their is a "new normal" we will make it boom. And we will lead the way

I think this is pretty close to the pioneer mindset America is known for. Right now, we hunker down, figure out what the larger picture is in a couple or three weeks, and then work our way out. We will work our way out.

We don't need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. We ARE NOT IN A FREAKING TUNNEL.

Hunker down. Help where and when you can. Keep a sense of humor and be a little more patient with the people in your foxhole.

 

[maxwelhse]

One of the docs (the smokin' hot one) on FNC News at Night just said that we have hopes that warm temps and high humidity might fizzle this virus.

A lot of us have been hoping that the end of regular flu season will get this one too, but that's where the "second wave" stuff is coming from too. A lot of folks are thinking this guy is going to make a stronger lap of the southern hemisphere and be back up north next fall. We're hoping by then there's a vaccine.

Really, we got about as lucky on the timing in North America as we could have.

 

[CountryBoy1981]

One of the docs (the smokin' hot one) on FNC News at Night just said that we have hopes that warm temps and high humidity might fizzle this virus.

If that is the case, it will not continue to spread in south Florida due to it being in the mid to high 80s and high humidity right now.

 

[nonobaddog]

Yes in that the death rate can not be compared to current cases as is currently being done.

No in that the number also does not count how many people that have it have never been tested.

In short we are currently close to blind as far as the death rate.

This is right. The testing part is so far off that we really can't use the numbers for anything.
For instance, Los Angeles county is not testing people for the last week or so even if they strongly think they have COVID-19, they only test them if the results will change the treatment. Other places are doing similar things for various reasons such as not have the capability to do tests.

Sure the states, regions or cities publish numbers of positive test results done but that is simply a minimum for the number of infected. The actual number of infected remains unknown.

We have a number for the deaths but we do not have a number for the infected so we cannot calculate a valid number for the mortality.

 

[nonobaddog]

One of the docs (the smokin' hot one) on FNC News at Night just said that we have hopes that warm temps and high humidity might fizzle this virus.

I have heard that hope too. But the corona virus has spread quite well in Australia and South Africa where it has been summer as well as several spots along the equator where it has been hot and humid all along. We can hope it will help but we can't count on it.

 

[smokingman]

China lowered the lock down in Wuhan.
I think it had an unexpected result as police departments are battling each other along with citizens on both sides of a bridge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ifted-police-beaten-their-own-shield-cop-cars

Someone else made this summary but I believe it to be fairly accurate.

Lockdown in Hubei was lifted 2 days ago and people wanted to go back to work in Jiangxi. Jiangxi police would not let them in. People from Hubei got mad.

Jiangxi police invaded Hubei police jurisdiction, causing fights between the police.

Riots ensued.

 

[smokingman]

Rhode Island police began stopping cars with New York plates Friday(even on 1-95). On Saturday, the National Guard will help them conduct house-to-house searches to find people who traveled from New York and demand 14 days of self-quarantine.


“Right now we have a pinpointed risk,” Governor Gina Raimondo said. “That risk is called New York City.”

“Yesterday I announced and today I reiterated: Anyone coming to Rhode Island in any way from New York must be quarantined,” the governor said. “By order. Will be enforced. Enforceable by law.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-last-rich-people-left-on-the-upper-east-side

https://patch.com/rhode-island/cran...4whtd0N1Gp95nkw5AyBQJojuMsYhJliy7N7Sn39FHJg6k

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ill-us-reports-more-1300-deaths-covid-19-live

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/us/rhode-island-tracking-down-new-yorkers/index.html

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/rhode...-find-new-yorkers-seeking-coronavirus-refuge/

https://fox11online.com/news/coronavirus/states-impose-new-restrictions-on-travelers-from-new-york

I can not say I blame them.

 

[Vigilant]

Thank you for this helpful and valuable information. Looks like there is a bit of a shipping delay from Amazon, but in stock and ready to ship from Webstaurant. One bottle has 150 tablets, so at 1 tablet per gallon of water, you're talking 150 gallons of sanitizer. Beats the heck out of bleach or cans of Lysol, and being food safe is a huge advantage.

This is the kind of useful info I like to see here.



We now return you to your regularly scheduled death clock projections/guesses.

Its quaternary ammonia, and can be had local at restau supply stores, and GFS stores.

 

[tbhausen]

Guys, I think one thing smokingman and I agree on is that there is a disconnect between the numbers and the boots-on-the-ground reality. I'm working on a longer post with support for that, but it is more complicated than you might think.

Basically, though, as someone stated upthread, it is possible for some hospitals/ERs to be near-capacity and overworked, while others are not. It is also true that those medical staff on the ground are more concerned about treating people and their conditions. If a patient presents as pneumonia with kidney failure, they treat that/those. They can intuit that it is COVID-19 without a test. But, for official reporting purposes, if it isn't confirmed, it is "just" pneumonia with kidney failure.

We can sympathize and be alarmed by the medical staff anecdotes without losing sight of the bigger picture, too.

And I know it is an INGO reflex, but can we avoid putting INGOers in "camps"? That just sounds really tribal.

Unless you're in my camp. Then we can do s'mores and singalongs and tell ghost stories and do peach Schnapps shots until one of us passes out.

Can I bring my guitar to the campfire?

 

[Brad69]

So I have been kinda busy have we turned Alpo into “Soyonet Green” yet?

About 4,220 miles in 5 days lots of people out and about now car loads of kids with mom rv’s with gray hairs low information people not taking it seriously IMO.