If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.
The problem is she does not understand why the data went from 500,000 deaths to 20,000. The model did not change. The RO did to adjust for people staying at home,and socially isolating.Then they go on to try and make claims about where the cases went.
Cases she does not understand did not change,the reality of the RO did.She is trying to explain what happened to cases in the model as if they disappeared,while at the same time not looking at WHY the numbers changed. The RO reduction.Personally I think they may be over estimating the stay at home orders impact on RO,I think they lowered the RO number by to much.
She goes on to say the model does not reflect reality on the ground...when it actually is doing a good job at that by taking into account measures taken to lower the RO. You can not dismiss a 20% infection rate(the low estimate with the new RO) because 20% of the population do not have covid-19 today,which is what she does.
Looking at it even more you can start to understand how she is perceiving the model.Statements like "
In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. " She clearly is stating looking at the data she thinks you have to have a large number of a-symtomatics to get to the original 500,000 figure.It is simply not true.You need a higher RO than the current model is using with people staying at home.
She does not understand how the model works. That is very clear to me.
I do my absolute best to not have a side. I look at what is presented by the science.
Trying to make this about sides is something I have criticized more than once. It is not left or right. Trying to make this about sides is not helping in any way,and I have pointed that out.
Putting yourself pretty high up on that pedestal?
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