Coronavirus II

[churchmouse]

Because that is the name of this virus. I also believe it was released by the Wuhan biological warfare lab in the same city. On purpose or accidentally I really don't care. China needs to be cut off from the world completely. China is a disease factory.

Look at what they have shared with the world over the years. Fire. The only real answer is fire.

 

[smokingman]

Now for a bit about the science.
COVID-19:Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyr into Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism
​https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID...e_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173

In short it is thought(in this paper) to cause a loss of ability for red blood cells to carry oxegen,while at the same time causing a toxic level release of iron from the blood that can lead to organ failure.


A bit more on modeling covid-19.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ts-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/


About that decline in Sundays numbers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...tinue-fall-global-covid-19-infections-near-15

 

[ghitch75]

Covid 19 is more precise than Wuhan

Wuhan Virus is the precise name because that is where it came from.....

 

[DadSmith]

Look at what they have shared with the world over the years. Fire. The only real answer is fire.

Speaking of sharing. Did you read where Italy gave China ventilators and China turns around and sells them back to Italy. Kind of makes you not want to help them in the future.

 

[Ziggidy]

Wuhan virus, Wuhan corona virus, China virus, China corona virus, Wuhan Covid 19 virus, Covid 19 virus, China Covid 19 virus, Corona virus......it's all the same.

Italian spaghetti, spaghetti, Italian noodles, Italian macaroni, macaroni, pasta, italian posta.....pretty much all the same.

West Nile virus, Guinea worm, Ross River fever, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Norovirus, German Measles......the list is long.

I think people should stop seeing hatred where there is none; and when they see hatred, make sure they are not looking at a mirror.

 

[ghitch75]

this has nothing to do with hate.....

 

[Ziggidy]

 

[churchmouse]

Wuhan virus, Wuhan corona virus, China virus, China corona virus, Wuhan Covid 19 virus, Covid 19 virus, China Covid 19 virus, Corona virus......it's all the same.

Italian spaghetti, spaghetti, Italian noodles, Italian macaroni, macaroni, pasta, italian posta.....pretty much all the same.

West Nile virus, Guinea worm, Ross River fever, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Norovirus, German Measles......the list is long.

I think people should stop seeing hatred where there is none; and when they see hatred, make sure they are not looking at a mirror.

"WINNER"

If you have something noteworthy to add then do so. If not stop nit-picking and splitting hairs.
This is all stressful enough.

 

[KellyinAvon]

Mornin INGO! Just thinking about the "modeling" and how it seems to swing from "not so bad" to "we gotta make more babies if we're going to have this many deaths, there ain't enough of us! to "never mind..."

I don't do this kind of modeling. I have developed "models" (yeah, they were equations but "model" sounds cool) to determine required manpower to perform a specific group of tasks (correlation/regression analysis) and for queue-based workcenters (AKA call centers) using ERLANG-C queuing theory model (which was developed by a dude named Erlang in 1917.)

Using historical data: that also means data that can't be manipulated by anybody to game the system (China??), and 6 months to a year of data, I can get you there. The trouble is the historical part.

If you plug what you got now based on a short period into an equation (that's what a model is) and there's a good chance this model was designed for something else? You gonna get absolute crap!

We got five models and the outputs are all wrong. Can you average them? Sure!! I can multiply them too!!

What if the historical data is just wrong? Not that the data is wrong, but the past doesn't accurately represent the future. Been there! But instead of not accurately call volumes, it's the number of people who will get sick, get really sick, and the number of people who will die.

What did I do when I found out calls were being answered and not captured through the phone system? I reverse-engineered it and got a higher than actual number, 28% high. What did I do about hidden workload causing an increase with a better level of service? I guessed. That caused people to wait longer in the phone queue, not buy medical supplies and equipment.

 

[qwerty]

I added Indiana historical Data: https://twnwi.com/Historical.php There was some discussion earlier and the incorrect historical numbers were being used. Thought it might help.

 

[smokingman]

A study on the effect of covid-19 on hearts,both healthy and those with preexisting cardiac disease.
Follows other ACE2 studies,but focuses on just effects in the heart.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1

News articles about the paper.
https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/
https://www.webmd.com/news/20200406...ust-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-patients-puzzles-doctors/


It is more than a bit concerning as someone with a healthy heart,who has heart issues from covid-19 is even more likely to die than someone with known cardiac issues(51% more).

 

[Ziggidy]

A study on the effect of covid-19 on hearts,both healthy and those with preexisting cardiac disease.
Follows other ACE2 studies,but focuses on just effects in the heart.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1

News articles about the paper.
https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/
https://www.webmd.com/news/20200406...ust-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-patients-puzzles-doctors/


It is more than a bit concerning as someone with a healthy heart,who has heart issues from covid-19 is even more likely to die than someone with known cardiac issues(51% more).

I do not know how everyone else feels, but many of these reports include data and research from China. My sensors raise a red flag when I see references to any data that comes from China.

Am I the only one?

 

[smokingman]

I do not know how everyone else feels, but many of these reports include data and research from China. My sensors raise a red flag when I see references to any data that comes from China.

Am I the only one?

No it sets off my red flag as well,but in the study it does mention results out of Italy. The study used data from a Chinese study,and other studies not associated with China.

Seeing the China reference is probably why I skipped reading it until it was over 2 weeks old. I will be more careful doing that from now on.

It is strange as well. Back in February all anyone had to read where Chinese studies and a few out of Taiwan or South Korea. Most information was from China though. It is all we had.
Now I try to find studies not based on China or Chinese data,it is still not an easy task.

 

[qwerty]

I do not know how everyone else feels, but many of these reports include data and research from China. My sensors raise a red flag when I see references to any data that comes from China.

Am I the only one?

The ACE2 vulnerability is well documented in regards to Coronavirus. The "cardiac injury" documented is interesting. So out of the 416 patients with a median age of 65, 82 (19.7%) had cardiac injury. Of the 82, 18 (22%) required mechanical ventilation.

It is more likely that the supposed cardiac injury was a previous co-morbidity rather than a result of the virus. There is more documentation that those with heart issues, hypertension, etc are more likely to be admitted to ICU and vented.

I would like to think that China doctors could be trusted, but lets not.

 

[smokingman]

The ACE2 vulnerability is well documented in regards to Coronavirus. The "cardiac injury" documented is interesting. So out of the 416 patients with a median age of 65, 82 (19.7%) had cardiac injury. Of the 82, 18 (22%) required mechanical ventilation.

It is more likely that the supposed cardiac injury was a previous co-morbidity rather than a result of the virus. There is more documentation that those with heart issues, hypertension, etc are more likely to be admitted to ICU and vented.

I would like to think that China doctors could be trusted, but lets not.

Found a study without data from China,says more than the Chinese study actually.

https://www.uscjournal.com/articles/covid-19-pandemic-and-cardiovascular-disease

Not sure about the conclusion though.

[FONT=&quot]Conclusion[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Our knowledge of the novel coronavirus and its cardiovascular implications is evolving by the hour. It is critical that, as a medical community which is on the front lines of this pandemic, we share our experiences, the successes, and the failures, with one another at a rapid pace. In addition to published manuscripts, real-time anecdotal experiences shared by world experts on social media forums will remain a valuable tool as we continue to learn about this disease.[/FONT]

 

[T.Lex]

Maybe. IANAD, but flu deaths from pneumonia and covid deaths from pneumonia differ...how? Sure, we don't have antibodies...and in many cases we don't have flu vaccines that are effective against current flu strains. Seems to me, ARDS is ARDS. Different vectors, similar results.

Chart pneumonia deaths for the last 5 years. How does the 2019-2020 season compare so far?

Couple things - we do have vaccines against flu strains, it is just that the cocktail each year imperfectly predicts which ones will be more prevalent. (Or, the flu strains that end up prevalent are the ones that the vaccines don't include.)

And not just different vectors, different actual diseases (from what I can tell, so I'd be interested in hoosierdoc's perspective on that). Leukemia and bone cancer both kill people with cancer, but are different things.

[Oh, and I basically skipped every post since this one that I'm quoting.]

 

[qwerty]

real-time anecdotal experiences shared by world experts on INGO will remain a valuable tool as we continue to learn about this disease.[/FONT][/COLOR]

Fixed

 

[T.Lex]

I do not know how everyone else feels, but many of these reports include data and research from China. My sensors raise a red flag when I see references to any data that comes from China.

Am I the only one?

No it sets off my red flag as well,but in the study it does mention results out of Italy. The study used data from a Chinese study,and other studies not associated with China.

Seeing the China reference is probably why I skipped reading it until it was over 2 weeks old. I will be more careful doing that from now on.

It is strange as well. Back in February all anyone had to read where Chinese studies and a few out of Taiwan or South Korea. Most information was from China though. It is all we had.
Now I try to find studies not based on China or Chinese data,it is still not an easy task.

Agree with these two, and qwerty.

Also, yesterday again failed to set a new peak in deaths, although it was close.

On 3/31, the number of daily deaths first surpassed 900 (912). Since then, the average has been 1104, with a max of 1,322 and a low of 912. (BTW, the average of those 2 are 1,117, which isn't that much different, so there aren't really any outliers.) Even if you exclude the min/max, the average is 1,099. So, the numbers are pretty solidly flat over the last week.

Another positive sign is that we are moving from a 3-day doubling in deaths to about 5. That's a really good sign, too.

It is by no means over, but the things we are doing are having an impact.

One note of bad news, the critical cases appear to be growing steadily. Even taking into account some of those cases resolve each day, the net number keeps growing. If the pace of resolution that I've read about continues, we are still in for 1k deaths per day for at least the next few days.

 

[nonobaddog]

Covid 19 is more precise than Wuhan

COVID-19 is not a virus at all. COVID-19 is a name given to the disease caused by the wuhan virus. So that is the opposite of precise.

 

[wagyu52]

[video=youtube_share;2XuaZdiQaAo]https://youtu.be/2XuaZdiQaAo[/video]