Colts 2023 A Time To Change

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    chipbennett

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    Colts actually have slightly better odds at making the 3-seed then the 5-seed.


    I think the only real takeaway there is that the Colts have the highest probability of being a WC team rather than a division winner. The accuracy of the "analytics" is likely such that the difference between 5.5% and 6.6% is statistical noise.
     

    Kdf101

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    With this Jekyll and Hyde team, I’m not sure what to expect. They look so good sometimes, then they don‘t. If the defense can do their thing, and Minshew can not fumble, they have a chance to make a run.
     

    foszoe

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    In any scenario, if the Colts win out and the Jags lose even one of their final 3 games, the Colts win the division. I don't see any particularly realistic scenarios that move an AFC South-winning Colts any higher than the 4 seed.

    If the Jags win out, they win the division and the Colts must still fight for a WC. So, in that case, the Colts' playoff chances/seeding are best-improved if:

    1. Week 16: Texans defeat the Browns (Browns 6 losses)
    2. Week 18: Bengals defeat the Browns (Browns 7 losses)
    3. Week 18: Dolphins defeat the Bills (Bills 7 losses)
    4. Week 18: Chiefs defeat the Bengals (Bengals 7 losses)
    5. Week 18: Colts defeat the Texans (Texans 7 losses)

    Assuming the Colts win out, the above scenario puts the Colts ahead of all remaining Wild Card teams, at the 5 seed, as the only WC with 6 losses.

    (And I'll remind: the real Colts record is now 9 - 5, and the real Browns record is 8 - 6. So the NFL is currently thoroughly screwing the Colts.)
    I am so glad you analytical guys do these posts for me. I am a casual fan but when I go to work and talk turns to football, I am viewed as a guru! I like knowing all that stuff I just don't want to put the time in.
     

    tbhausen

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    ChristianPatriot

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    Looking ahead a bit.

    Colts have benefited from a relatively “easier” schedule this year. Now of course credit to them for playing who was in front of them and putting themselves into a position to make the playoffs. Curious to see how see they do next season.

    AFC East
    Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets

    NFC North
    Packers, Bears, Vikings, Lions

    Certainly a step up in the quarterbacks they’ll have to face.

    Colts might be a better team next year and not get as many wins.
     
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