An alternate view, using the worldometers numbers for today to calculate percentage of those tested who eventually end up testing positive and dying, would imply a maximum of just under 488k dead if those odds were applied to 331million people
And there is no reason to believe the CFR is going anywhere but down, as it has declined from almost 4% to its current 2.13% a bit over 4 months. There is no compelling reason to agree, but the numbers can be tested in the future. Given the rate of decline, I would expect the CFR, approximated via worldometers numbers, to drop below 2% on or before Dec 4, 2020
Some good news for once, or at least not the constant worse news.
The rate of new cases definitely plateaued about 10 days ago, and are/were maybe starting to fall. Over the next week or two we'll see if the holiday get togethers cause a change in that.
Likewise, the rate of hospital admissions appears to have plateaued as well.
And the hospital census is flattening also.
ICU is at 43.8%... up but doesn't seem to be following the previous rate of increase... looks like it's still going up, but not as fast, IMO.
Positivity rate peaked about the the same time the cases hit the plateau and has started coming down. Avg daily fatality rate has a peak at 56 per day... down since then, but we will see if that was "real" or holiday weekend delays in reporting.
(FWIW, neighbor is a lab tech and said in their lab, positivity has started to "sky rocket", her words... close to half yesterday were positive... again, one tech in one lab so YMMV)
Yeah, while I'm always a fan of cautious optimism, I am concerned that the "good" numbers are more a product of the reporting processes being suspended because those personnel responsible for that particular chain were on vacation. Let's face it, those responsible for reporting are typically not on the front line, but more administrative. So they get to use their vacation days.
I'll certainly be watching to see the lagging numbers get caught up.
Again, I'm with you and hoping the currently-reported numbers are the "real" numbers.
Also hospitals get more pneumonia/flu this time of year, some severe. Not uncommon for pneumonia and covid to go together also. Had a friend who was hospitalized for that exact combo (fine now).
Oh. So apparently all the conservatives went progressive.
Paging qwerty. I'm finding it much harder to find raw, aggregate US death data than previously. Pages and pages devoted to the 'excess death' interpretation of the data with various sorts of spin on the results, but to just get a recent aggregate to compare to the average total death is much more difficult. I can only assume that comparison doesn't fit the allowed narrative
Do you happen to have a source for that information, even if it is the weekly totals and I have to add them up
I didn't ascribe reasons for the changes in trends... but the two I can think of are:
1. People changed their behaviors and whatever "things" that large numbers of people started doing changed the tide, or
2. It's naturally fizzling out on it's own, these were just "virgin" areas getting hit, we'll be done with it shortly.
Place your bets, spin the wheel...
Of course I was mocking "it's all conservatives fault!!!"
But anyway, if I were a betting man, I'd bet on red. It's burning through the population. It'll fizzle.
I didn't ascribe reasons for the changes in trends... but the two I can think of are:
1. People changed their behaviors and whatever "things" that large numbers of people started doing changed the tide, or
2. It's naturally fizzling out on it's own, these were just "virgin" areas getting hit, we'll be done with it shortly.
Place your bets, spin the wheel...
Would like to see such sources also... in the past when looking for such info (way before COVID), the only data available was a year to a year and a half old... as in about now 2019 might be available.
Prediction: The vaccine will get credit for any and all drops in CFR in the MSM, no regular news source will ever admit to overestimating the seriousness of this
We are only at about 13 to 14 M cases so there are another 316 M un-cases yet to go. So there is plenty of room to rage a while before fizzle.
I'd still like to know more about WTF Fauci was talking about when he said the bit about the vaccine (I think the RNA based one) not stopping the disease, but stopping the symptoms. Sounds like a leaky vaccine to me. How is that better if a lot of people get that vaccine and then act like the pre-symptomatic spreaders? I really wish he'd have explained that more in depth.
Paging qwerty. I'm finding it much harder to find raw, aggregate US death data than previously. Pages and pages devoted to the 'excess death' interpretation of the data with various sorts of spin on the results, but to just get a recent aggregate to compare to the average total death is much more difficult. I can only assume that comparison doesn't fit the allowed narrative
Do you happen to have a source for that information, even if it is the weekly totals and I have to add them up
I missed that - any linkification? Because that would suck.