2016 Electoral College polling thread

[T.Lex]

Nate Silver still has DJT with a 1/3 chance of winning.
Election Update: Don?t Ignore The Polls ? Clinton Leads, But It?s A Close Race | FiveThirtyEight

 

[foszoe]

Nate Silver still has DJT with a 1/3 chance of winning.
Election Update: Don?t Ignore The Polls ? Clinton Leads, But It?s A Close Race | FiveThirtyEight

All the polls went Hillary's way this morning. I don't see a path for Trump to win this.

At least there is live college football on Tuesday night!

 

[T.Lex]

All the polls went Hillary's way this morning. I don't see a path for Trump to win this.

At least there is live college football on Tuesday night!

Well, several of the key states are within the MOE. If the polling is at all wrong in his favor, he does have a puncher's chance.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Just dropping this here, unrelated to main topic.

GOP edged ahead of Dems for Senate control for first time since Summer

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, Nate Silver has a good breakdown of the Senate races, too.

 

[T.Lex]

This page uses a methodology similar to RCP's rolling average.

2016 Election: Clinton vs. Trump

Close states (poll difference between Clinton and Trump averaging 5 points or less) are shown as toss up (tan). Leaning states (5-10 points) are a lighter blue/red. Darker blue/red states are averaging a spread of greater than 10 points.

It has HRC at 239.

 

[mcjon77]

Big big shifts happening for sure. Strange that people are changing their minds, more likely pollsters being more honest?

maybe some are changing their minds. It could also be that more undecideds are finally settling on a candidate.

 

[MCgrease08]

Election 2016: The States Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Need To Win : NPR

6 Scenarios For How Election Night Might Play Out

 

[BugI02]

How close is it? If Real Clear Politics is right, Trump just needs to flip one tiny state?


New Hampshire could be ground zero

 

[SteveM4A1]

How bout them polls?

 

[Ericpwp]

 

[Twangbanger]

RCP calls Wisconsin for Trump. This could be the "flip state" he needed.

 

[Bennettjh]

How bout them polls?

"Margin of error".

 

[Twangbanger]

...boy the NeverTrumpers sure are quiet

 

[K_W]

...boy the NeverTrumpers sure are quiet

They were all undercover Democrats. #NoPurple

 

[T.Lex]

...boy the NeverTrumpers sure are quiet

Too busy doing real stuff instead of sitting at computers.

Hey, if he pulls this off, it'll truly be historic.

Hang on, boys and girls, like the Cubs winning the World Series, we could be in uncharted territory.

Was a bit off.

Looks like HRC might not keep NV or IA, although PA is narrowing.

If Trump can flip those two, then HRC doesn't get to 269 with or without Utah in play. If Utah goes 3rd party, neither side might make it.

So let's say HRC keeps: NV, PA, IA. Trump gets: OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, and AZ. Then she only gets to 267 and he only gets to 265. Boom. Congress decides.

As the big day approaches, things appear to be settling in. Conceding the possible tossups (FL, OH, NC, GA, AZ, UT, IA, NV) to DJT, it still leaves 273 going to HRC.

Anyone see any other states as possible DJT victories?

Although I don't think INGO called it, it looks like Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and maybe Wisconsin were in play.

 

[Twangbanger]

RCP has Trump at 255 EV, without Arizona and NH called yet. Those two states have the 15 EV to get him to 270, and Trump is leading by 1 in NH with 75% reporting, and by almost 4 in AZ with 56% reporting.

Buckle up folks...this is about to get interesting.

(Can you hear the lawsuit papers ruffling?)

 

[T.Lex]

Dammit.

I HATE how the media is talking about "rural white vote." **** you, MSM. This isn't about race.

 

[jamil]

I'm just pleased by seeing people cry at the Democrat headquarters. It's looking like Trump will actually pull this off.

 

[T.Lex]

If Utah really goes for Trump, that could really help.