2016 Electoral College polling thread

[JTScribe]

Sam SteinVerified account‏@samsteinhp
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AND..... Clinton announces an election day stop with Obama in, you guessed it, New Hampshire


But she's totally flipping red states like crazy. /sarc

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

6 ways Donald Trump could win 270 electoral votes - CNNPolitics.com

 

[T.Lex]

Very important, though... is there still a 269/269 (or both sub-270) available if Utah goes to McMullin?

So let's say HRC keeps: NV, PA, IA. Trump gets: OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, and AZ. Then she only gets to 267 and he only gets to 265. Boom. Congress decides.

Was a bit off.

Looks like HRC might not keep NV or IA, although PA is narrowing.

If Trump can flip those two, then HRC doesn't get to 269 with or without Utah in play. If Utah goes 3rd party, neither side might make it.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

If Utah goes 3rd party, neither side might make it.

This seems like a good outcome. Only remaining way to end up with a non-Trump, non-Clinton President.

 

[T.Lex]

This seems like a good outcome. Only remaining way to end up with a non-Trump, non-Clinton President.

President Ryan?

(Not Jack.)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Here's your roadmap:

1. Win all Romney states = 206
2. Win Ohio = 224
3. Win Florida = 253
4. ?????? = 270

 

[jamil]

This seems like a good outcome. Only remaining way to end up with a non-Trump, non-Clinton President.

Could be a good outcome, but it's a very narrow chance indeed. I actually think Trump winning and then being impeached has a greater probability.

President Ryan?

(Not Jack.)

Gosh I hope not. For one thing, I am not a Ryan fan. But mostly because Ryan would lack legitimacy. I think one of the top candidates for the GOP primary would have more legitimacy, or the GOP pick for VP would have more legitimacy than Ryan.

 

[T.Lex]

Gosh I hope not. For one thing, I am not a Ryan fan. But mostly because Ryan would lack legitimacy. I think one of the top candidates for the GOP primary would have more legitimacy, or the GOP pick for VP would have more legitimacy than Ryan.

Well, if no candidate breeches 270, the legitimacy issue will apply all the way around IMHO. Yeah, it would be mitigated by picking one of the 2 main candidates, but it'll still suck. Or rock. Depending on your perspective.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Here's a map from a Trump fundraising email.

 

[Twangbanger]

...If Utah goes 3rd party, neither side might make it.

This seems like a good outcome. Only remaining way to end up with a non-Trump, non-Clinton President.

Where are you getting your numbers from? RCP's most recent component polls show Trump winning Utah between +6 and +12.

 

[T.Lex]

"The Field" - that is any other candidate - has been within the MOE or even leading in a couple Utah polls. The most recent couple show Trump winning.

ETA:
Sorry, linkification:
http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/utah/

 

[Twangbanger]

"The Field" - that is any other candidate - has been within the MOE or even leading in a couple Utah polls. The most recent couple show Trump winning.

ETA:
Sorry, linkification:
Utah 2016 Presidential Election Polls: Clinton vs. Trump

But that's head-in-the-ground thinking. "The Field" isn't on the ballot. You're looking at the 2-way numbers, while selectively ignoring the 4-way numbers in your own link. When "other" is broken down into its component parts, and Stein and McMullin (who are on the ballot) are included, they take the vast majority of your "Other" vote, and leave Trump with a substantial lead.

If you're assuming those 3rd party voters are going to have some kind of epiphany over the weekend, and "come home" to the establishment, that's relying on information which hasn't been presented.

 

[T.Lex]

But that's head-in-the-ground thinking. "The Field" isn't on the ballot. You're looking at the 2-way numbers, while selectively ignoring the 4-way numbers in your own link. When "other" is broken down into its component parts, and Stein and McMullin (who are on the ballot) are included, they take the vast majority of your "Other" vote, and leave Trump with a substantial lead.

If you're assuming those 3rd party voters are going to have some kind of epiphany over the weekend, and "come home" to the establishment, that's relying on information which hasn't been presented.

Well, this is all mental masturbation, right?

Mid-October, McMullin actually led (inside the MOE, though) both Trump and HRC. Utah has a very unusual demographic feature which, this cycle, works against Trump as the Republican. It is difficult to predict if Utah voters will turn to Trump or McMullin as defiance, but I see the latter as a viable alternative there.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Wisconsin Loras College Poll:

Clinton 44 (+6)
Trump 38
Johnson 7
Stein 2

 

[ArcadiaGP]

CNN's map today shows 4 moves towards Trump:

UT, OH, ME-2 all now Lean R;

NH from Lean D to toss up

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/polit...duplicate/index.html?sr=twtsr1104electoralmap

 

[SteveM4A1]

Starting to get interesting....

 

[BugI02]

Pennsylvania Statewide Poll

Harper 11/2 - 11/3

Trump Tie 46 (+2)

Clinton Tie 46 (-2)

Trump ahead everywhere except Philly and the southeast

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Democrat electoral college voter says he will not vote for Clinton - Story

So she needs 271.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Big big shifts happening for sure. Strange that people are changing their minds, more likely pollsters being more honest?

 

[T.Lex]

Big big shifts happening for sure. Strange that people are changing their minds, more likely pollsters being more honest?

Occam's razor. This Hobson's choice of a presidential race kept many people undecided or only nominally committed until the very end. IMHO, the pollsters that have stuck closely to the raw numbers have the best credibility. The algorithms and "normalizing" of the numbers is more prone to error this time around than in the past.