2016 Electoral College polling thread

[T.Lex]

Yeah, I've seen other sources that say Trump was narrowing the gap even before the email thing. Probably true.

Over the weekend:
- mixed polling in FL; IMHO its related to how geographically partisan that state is - a 10% increase in one area over another could probably change the final numbers
- CO and AZ are probably too close for comfort for either candidate
- UT is REALLY sagging for Trump - he may not win
- PA and NC are probably safely HRC's, which mean Trump still has work to do in the EC.

ETA:
Holy carp. (Or trout, as the case may be.)

New poll from AK has HRC leading there. Only +4, and still within the MOE, but.... dang.

 

[T.Lex]

So Halloween is shaping up to be not-so-scary for Trump.

He's polling ahead in GA and NC, and drawing closer in PA. We're nearly back to his high water mark, talking about him taking OH and PA. If he can get outside the MOE in both of those states, then we have a ball game. FL will be a tie right up until the lawsuits over the recounts end.

He's looking better in NC and GA, too.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

WaPo-Schar School
Virginia likely voters

Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

Oct. 27-30
MOE +/-3.5

 

[hoosierdoc]

does that include 200,000 felons?

 

[Ericpwp]

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Franklin and Marshall Pennsylvania poll:
Clinton 49 (+2)
Trump 38 (same)
Johnson 4 (-1)

About impossible for Trump to win without PA.

 

[jamil]

does that include 200,000 felons?

I think the polls are unfairly biased towards Republicans because dead voters can't answer the phone to participate.

 

[BugI02]

Franklin and Marshall Pennsylvania poll:
Clinton 49 (+2)
Trump 38 (same)
Johnson 4 (-1)

About impossible for Trump to win without PA.

View attachment 50948

 

[printcraft]

View attachment 50948

I also don't see "sex" as specified either.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

CNN/ORC FLORIDA POLL
Oct. 27-Nov. 1

Clinton 49%
Trump 47%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

 

[Ericpwp]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/02/4-electoral-maps-where-donald-trump-wins/

 

[ArcadiaGP]

U Denver/Ciruli Assoc
Colorado voters

Clinton 39%
Trump 39%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%
Undecided 14%

Oct. 29-31

 

[Ericpwp]

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, also looks like a tie in NH. These low-EC-delegate states are more important because they may signal some structural problems with HRC's support in blue states.

Hang on, boys and girls, like the Cubs winning the World Series, we could be in uncharted territory.

 

[jamil]

Someone I thought was in the tank for Hillary told me the other day that he's having a very difficult time deciding. Said every day it looks more and more like Hillary really is corrupt. America may be deciding that it's better to elect a blowhard who goes around grabbing women's ******* than a corrupt elite who sold access to the state department and used a private email server to hide her corruption.

 

[foszoe]

Someone I thought was in the tank for Hillary told me the other day that he's having a very difficult time deciding. Said every day it looks more and more like Hillary really is corrupt. America may be deciding that it's better to elect a blowhard who goes around grabbing women's ******* than a corrupt elite who sold access to the state department and used a private email server to hide her corruption.

He only says it. Locker room talk and all that...

 

[ArcadiaGP]

WBUR New Hampshire poll (change from last):
Trump 40 (+2)
Clinton 39 (-2)
Johnson 10 (-1)

Trump's first lead in any New Hampshire poll.

 

[T.Lex]

fivethirtyeight now has Trump's chance of winning the EC at about 35%. That's just a little shy of his high point.

So DJT is surging at the last minute. He's got that going for him.

 

[printcraft]

Trump Grabs Hillary?s Virginia | Headline of the Day

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah I saw that headline. Brilliant.

Not totally accurate, yet, but if he does maintain a lead in Virginia, the EC math gets easier for him.