Turkey really shoots down a Mig today

[Birds Away]

Thanks for the graphic T.Lex. They were transmitting on Guard in English which is the NATO control standard (actually unusual for the Turks to be even moderately readable on the radio). I wonder how much English the Russian pilot knew. Or if Russian military aircraft have a dedicated Guard channel.

MAD is an international convention. English is the global language of air control so any pilot flying internationally would speak English.

 

[Birds Away]

This is true, but even so it would take orders from the top to engage in a shoot down. Even if a Tu-95 flew over the mainland we would intercept, escort, possibly force to land. Shooting it down is a big step up from rude language.

I think they know better than to actual fly over our territory, particularly CONUS. That might end badly.

 

[T.Lex]

This is true, but even so it would take orders from the top to engage in a shoot down. Even if a Tu-95 flew over the mainland we would intercept, escort, possibly force to land. Shooting it down is a big step up from rude language.

If a Tu-95 flew over the mainland, I think our first assumption would be that it was defecting.

Part of that calculation would be that it is so out of character. Each side knows the dance. We see you flying toward us, getting too close, we send up our escort. They intercept, flash Penthouse magazine covers, you turn back to international waters, no harm no foul.

If they kept flying over Elmendorf, there'd be lots of radio chatter and that red phone would probably start ringing. The first time.

It would get really old, really quick. At some point, the standing orders might be to shoot.

This particular TuAF shoot-down was not the first incursion. Just the most recent. I suspect the diplomats at some point told the Russians, "The next time you do this foolish thing, we're going to shoot you down." Then the orders were put in place.

This doesn't happen in a vacuum.

 

[Thor]

MAD is an international convention. English is the global language of air control so any pilot flying internationally would speak English.

I doubt the Russian/English listener knew much Turkish/English...

 

[Birds Away]

I doubt the Russian/English listener knew much Turkish/English...

True, I have had to decipher Turkish/English. It isn't all that easy.

 

[Birds Away]

If you consider the short time period that this all happened in, and you consider that the order was purportedly given by the Turkish PM, you have to believe this was setup ahead of time.

 

[T.Lex]

If you consider the short time period that this all happened in, and you consider that the order was purportedly given by the Turkish PM, you have to believe this was setup ahead of time.

If by "setup" you mean, "If this happens again, you are authorized to launch." then I agree. I do not think the Turks tried to hide their exasperation with having their sovereignty violated by Russian (and Syrian) aircraft.

Now, I do need to interject a caveat: I'm assuming the Turks' actual sovereign airspace was violated. If they were projecting their "controlled airspace" into Syria, then that is a different issue. It would mean the Turks were being opportunistic about expanding their borders - which isn't necessarily a bad thing - but it would mean they were brave nearly to the point of foolishness.

 

[Birds Away]

That's exactly what I mean by setup. I guess pre-arranged tripwire might have been better. I think we are all failing to understand what a close relationship there is between Turkey their ethnic brothers and sisters just across the border. If the Russians keep bombing them this might not be the last "incident".

 

[T.Lex]

In related news, the New York Times agrees with INGO's assessment of various aspects of this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/world/europe/turkey-russia-fighter-jet.html?_r=0

Turkey and Russia promised on Wednesday not to go to war over the downing of a Russian fighter jet, leaving Turkey’s still-nervous NATO allies and just about everyone else wondering why the country decided to risk such a serious confrontation.

The reply from the Turkish government so far has been consistent: Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

Though minor airspace violations are fairly common and usually tolerated, Turkey had repeatedly called in Russia’s ambassador to complain about aircraft intrusions and about bombing raids in Syria near the border. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday evening — and a Pentagon spokesman later confirmed — that before a Turkish F-16 shot down the Russian Su-24 jet, Turkish forces had warned the Russian plane 10 times in five minutes to steer away.
...
But the fate of the particular rebels the Russians were bombing in the mountainous Bayirbucak area where the plane was shot down is more than just a policy matter to the Turks. Mr. Erdogan particularly emphasized the ethnic tie in a speech Tuesday evening, saying, “We strongly condemn attacks focusing on areas inhabited by Bayirbucak Turkmen — we have our relatives, our kin there.”
...

Complicating matters further, Turkey and Syria have a longstanding border dispute in exactly the area where the Russian plane, a Sukhoi Su-24, was shot down, and Russia has sometimes voiced support for Syria’s claim. It is a narrow strip of territory, the Hatay Province of Turkey, that runs south along the Mediterranean Sea, deep into Syria.
The province is a melting pot of ethnic Turks and Arabs. It is also a religious mélange, with many Muslims but also a large Christian population, as Hatay includes the biblical city of Antioch. And the province has an acrimonious history.
The League of Nations granted Hatay Province to France after World War I as part of France’s legal mandate over Syria. Ethnic Turks led the province’s secession from Syria and declaration of an independent republic in 1938, and that republic then joined Turkey the next year...
...
The fact that Russia has over the years expressed sympathy for Syria’s claim to Hatay makes the province even more delicate for Turkey, and Tuesday’s incident with the Russian jet even more important, said James F. Jeffrey, a former American ambassador to Turkey who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

That last bit is somewhat important, I think, especially when it comes to the words being used. When Putin says, "Our planes were over Syria." it begs the question, which map is he using? Plus, every previous incursion could be viewed as poking Turkey in the chest over the territory.

There's also a link to radar plots showing where each side says it was.

 

[Birds Away]

In related news, the New York Times agrees with INGO's assessment of various aspects of this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/world/europe/turkey-russia-fighter-jet.html?_r=0



That last bit is somewhat important, I think, especially when it comes to the words being used. When Putin says, "Our planes were over Syria." it begs the question, which map is he using? Plus, every previous incursion could be viewed as poking Turkey in the chest over the territory.

There's also a link to radar plots showing where each side says it was.

Thanks, that's interesting stuff. It further muddies the waters just enough to give both sides a perceived "justification".

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Brk: 7 people killed in a Russian air-strikes targeting an alleged aid convoy Azaz north-west Syria.

https://twitter.com/NewsOnTheMin/status/669572807685234688

 

[T.Lex]

Speculating on Putin's response - "We warned them 11 times to turn back."

 

[T.Lex]

Not much new in this link, except the tag line:
Russia sends clear message to Turkey: Don't try it again - BBC News

As for the rescued co-pilot, he says he is impatient to return to the skies.
"I want to stay here," he said, referring to the Russian airbase. "I want payback for my commander."

So... now it is personal, and it isn't just him, probably every Russian pilot and SAM operator is looking to paint an F-16 silhouette on his machine.

 

[Drail]

I have to wonder what exactly the Turks used to bring down a Sukhoi and who sold it to them?

 

[IndyDave1776]

I have to wonder what exactly the Turks used to bring down a Sukhoi and who sold it to them?

So far as I recall, aside from a little homebrew, they pretty well stick to one supplier.

 

[T.Lex]

I have to wonder what exactly the Turks used to bring down a Sukhoi and who sold it to them?

Looking at the radar tracks, I'm convinced it was an AIM-120 AMRAAM. That's a single-source product.

 

[cobber]

I have to wonder what exactly the Turks used to bring down a Sukhoi and who sold it to them?

Ukraine? That would be interesting....

 

[Birds Away]

Looking at the radar tracks, I'm convinced it was an AIM-120 AMRAAM. That's a single-source product.

You're probably right. I suppose it could have been an old Sparrow but probably the AMRAAM.

 

[miguel]

"A short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack" said the Turkish PM in 2012. DOH!

source: Turkey PM Erdogan issues Syria border warning - BBC News

 

[BigBoxaJunk]

I'm tired of turkey.

I'm not now, but ask me in a few days..........