The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[chipbennett]

Also, Pence just endorsed Cruz, apparently.

 

[T.Lex]

400 can be a fine number for polling, if it covers the right spread of demographics. Not as simple as likely/registered. Bigger numbers can whittle down the margin of error, but (as a polling stats person said to me once) after a certain point, the same answers start coming at the same rate.

And chip, "registered" is ok, too. "Likely" is usually a self-reporting thing. So, it actually introduces an element of potential error (unless the target of the poll was produced based on past primary votes, which makes the "likely" part more likely). In fact, polling unregistered voters in Indiana is a bad way to do it, since the only people allowed to vote (outside Gary) had to register weeks ago.

 

[chipbennett]

Now that's a ringing endorsement, if ever I've heard one:

[video=youtube;DlBLzFQMaGs]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlBLzFQMaGs[/video]

 

[MisterChester]

Trump's America First has ugly echoes from U.S. history - CNN.com

Because nobody on the Trump campaign knows how to use Google? Yeah, that's it...that gotta be it..........doesn't it?

I believe there are certain times to be certain ways for foreign policy. The founding fathers had a similar policy when our nation was young because we were recovering and didn't want to bother with international affairs just yet. I think it is time do that for a while. Let's concentrate on ourselves. We are the metaphorical overweight chick that's a 5.8 out of 10 but with a little work we can be the hot 9 out of 10 (or better) chick at the party.

 

[chipbennett]

Ted Cruz in Ft. Wayne ("not a spectacle", "underwhelming", "half the room was empty"):

Crowd for Cruz rally less than expected | WANE

Donald Trump in Ft. Wayne tonight:

 

[MisterChester]

Ted Cruz in Ft. Wayne ("not a spectacle", "underwhelming", "half the room was empty"):

Crowd for Cruz rally less than expected | WANE

Donald Trump in Ft. Wayne tonight:

Come Tuesday night Cruz is going to say that California will decide the race after saying multiple times it would be Indiana.

 

[CountryBoy1981]

Ted Cruz in Ft. Wayne ("not a spectacle", "underwhelming", "half the room was empty"):

Crowd for Cruz rally less than expected | WANE

Donald Trump in Ft. Wayne tonight:

Reminds me of 2008 when the sheep attended Obama rallies, he was nearly a reality tv star.

 

[Route 45]

Reminds me of 2008 when the sheep attended Obama rallies, he was nearly a reality tv star.

Double post......

 

[Route 45]

Reminds me of 2008 when the sheep attended Obama rallies, he was nearly a reality tv star.

Remind me, who won that election?

(Not pro-Obama, just making a point)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Clinton is historically unpopular at this point, but Trump on a planet of his own.

 

[Super Bee]

I was at Trumps rally this evening and the place was packed, every seat full and people waiting outside. They had the curtains over the upper decks, not sure why as they could have filled them too.

As for the WANE TV article I found it a bit confusing. An hour before Cruz was scheduled to speak it was announced on local radio every seat was full and there was no further room where Cruz would be giving his speech, so I did not bother to go.

Cruz will be back in town tomorrow with Glenn Beck and Mike Lee and I will be there for that one.

 

[jamil]

Remind me, who won that election?

(Not pro-Obama, just making a point)

Well if it meant Hillary wouldn't become President I suppose I'd take it. But I'm not very confident Trump will nominate a conservative justice. But at least there is some doubt that he'd nominate another Ruth Ginsberg like Hillary will.

 

[T.Lex]

So, the last 2 polls on RCP (they aren't reporting the Cruz +15 one, I don't think) are a bit interesting demographically.

The one that had Trump +15 (NBC/WSJ/Marist) appears to be landline only. So, that'll skew older, and older candidates appear to be supporting Trump. The one that had Trump +9 (American Research Group) had an odd way to designate their sample.

Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Indiana (260 self-reported Republicans and 140 self-reported independents and Democrats.

Roughly 1/3 of the respondents did not self-report as Republican. Rather, those 140 are either independent or crossover Dems, which are more likely to support Trump (we think).

Not saying either of those polls misrepresent the electorate, just saying they are interesting quirks.

ETA:
Found the one that had Cruz +16 - IPFW/Downs Center (I think he's a poli sci prof there). It had a very long call window, 4/13-4/27, but only 400 sample size of registered/likely Republican voters. Of those, they aimed for 75/25 split on landline/cell.

 

[Landon]

Gravis poll just released shows Trump +17.

 

[T.Lex]

Gravis poll just released shows Trump +17.

Interesting.

Methodology:

he polls were conducted using live telephone calls to landlines and mobile phone numbers of registered voters in Indiana and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

From:
Current Indiana Polling - Gravis

The race question they asked had interesting results. Mostly white, of course, but a significant "Refused" then Hispanic, then "Other." May not change the results much (or at all), but that's a demographic that is used in weighting (usually). So, I wonder how their weighting might've been impacted.

The whole "weighting" thing needs more transparency (of course, to the pollsters, that's their secret sauce). For instance, this poll had a pretty even mix age-wise. But, if they weight the older voters more heavily (reflecting older voters are more likely to vote), then it gets skewed a bit.

Anyway, interesting stuff. Tomorrow is the poll that matters, of course.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

From:
Current Indiana Polling - Gravis

The race question they asked had interesting results. Mostly white, of course, but a significant "Refused" then Hispanic, then "Other." May not change the results much (or at all), but that's a demographic that is used in weighting (usually). So, I wonder how their weighting might've been impacted.

The whole "weighting" thing needs more transparency (of course, to the pollsters, that's their secret sauce). For instance, this poll had a pretty even mix age-wise. But, if they weight the older voters more heavily (reflecting older voters are more likely to vote), then it gets skewed a bit.

Anyway, interesting stuff. Tomorrow is the poll that matters, of course.

The education breakdown is interesting also. 43% college degree, 11% post grad degree, 23 some college, 23 high school degree, and only .3 other.

That and the amount of undecided, in 3 recent polls the undecided vote has been in the double digits anywhere from 11% to 24%.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, I think Trump may be in trouble with voters that have a crisis of conscience at the ballot box.

Crazy days.

 

[Landon]

I could see many voters voting for Trump that are not going to openly support him. Silent majority.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

I could see many voters voting for Trump that are not going to openly support him. Silent majority.

LMFAO Good one. Trump supporters are anything but silent. And you do know that the polls are anonymous right? They have no reason to say they are undecided if they are not.

 

[Landon]

LMFAO Good one. Trump supporters are anything but silent. And you do know that the polls are anonymous right? They have no reason to say they are undecided if they are not.

Yes to the polls. I didn't mention anything about polls in my post. I'm just saying in general I think there are people that are voting for Trump that are not out thumping their chest that they support Trump. That's just my gut feeling, nothing scientific about it. In my day to day activities I don't see much support for Trump, I don't see Trump bumper stickers, banners, signs, etc. But apparently there are people that vote for him.