The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[T.Lex]

See, for example, RedState, already putting them in the Cruz column.

A blog? Trump is upset that a blog counted them against him? "I'll take Internet Oversensitivity for a thousand, Alex." I took a quick look, and couldn't find it on there. But, that is not part of my usual retinue of sites. And it will remain off-list. All I could find was a regurgitation of the WSJ reporting.

Politico, for example, is still reporting the 18/18 split.

Quite true: Cruz is playing the inside baseball game better. Of course, that really solidifies his position as an outsider. But that's a separate issue.

False dichotomy. A GOPe outsider can still know and leverage the GOPe rules. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and all.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

I'm saying that Trump has a point, not that a lawsuit necessarily should prevail. It depends on whether the unbound delegates are truly unbound. If they're already being counted in Cruz's column, then one can reasonably argue that they are not, in fact, unbound.

How are they not unbound? Even if they came out and stated that they were for Cruz they are still unbound

Also, Cruz may have picked up more people in important convention rule-making positions, but that's a benefit of experience. He played that game better than Trump.

I'm just guessing is that is the real issue for Trump. Cruz got what 5 out of 6, one is unbound and 0 for Trump.

See, for example, RedState, already putting them in the Cruz column.

Quite true: Cruz is playing the inside baseball game better. Of course, that really solidifies his position as an outsider. But that's a separate issue.

And? They may actually be in Cruz's column. That doesn't mean they aren't unbound.

Cruz is playing smarter, due to experience. Not necessarily insider, just experienced. Hell the one article I read stated that some of the delegates on Trump's list didn't even show up when they were supposed to because they didn't know they were supposed to.

A blog? Trump is upset that a blog counted them against him? "I'll take Internet Oversensitivity for a thousand, Alex." I took a quick look, and couldn't find it on there. But, that is not part of my usual retinue of sites. And it will remain off-list. All I could find was a regurgitation of the WSJ reporting.

Politico, for example, is still reporting the 18/18 split.

False dichotomy. A GOPe outsider can still know and leverage the GOPe rules. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and all.

Yep.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Apparently "breaking" now that Kasich campaign immediately pulling all radio ads from Wisconsin markets.

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/714487782434074624

 

[T.Lex]

Apparently "breaking" now that Kasich campaign immediately pulling all radio ads from Wisconsin markets.

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/714487782434074624

Wonder if he's going to focus on Pennsylvania, where he might actually win. If he can carve out a niche in OH/PA/WV, it makes the path to Contestedville clearer.

 

[T.Lex]

John Kasich campaign reallocating political ads in Wisconsin - WKOW 27: Madison, WI Breaking News, Weather and Sports

Supposedly, they are simply re-allocating spots to cherry pick certain congressional districts in WI where they are competitive. Basically, he's trying to maximize the delegates he can get without trying to win a majority.

Make of that what you will.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

John Kasich campaign reallocating political ads in Wisconsin - WKOW 27: Madison, WI Breaking News, Weather and Sports

Supposedly, they are simply re-allocating spots to cherry pick certain congressional districts in WI where they are competitive. Basically, he's trying to maximize the delegates he can get without trying to win a majority.

Make of that what you will.

Que the BeeGees....Stayin' Alive...Just tryin' stay alive...

 

[miguel]

Que the BeeGees....Stayin' Alive...Just tryin' stay alive...

The first time I saw Kasich, I could tell by the way he walks. I mean, he's a ladies man, no time for talk. But it's all right, it's OK, some voters may look the other way. We can try to understand, the NY Times effect on man.

 

[BugI02]

What point? Again, I'm not intentionally being dense, this is natural.



Unbound does not mean they are incapable of having a preference, or an opinion. My read on it is that they have not "bound" themselves to Cruz, just expressed him as a preference over Trump. Someone recently said reasonable people can disagree. Assuming these delegates to be reasonable people, they just don't think Trump is better than Cruz.

That is allowed (apparently) by both GOPe and Louisiana rules.

If Trump doesn't like it, it is because he doesn't like the notion that people might not like him.

ETA:
I'm starting to wonder if there's any basis to Trump's issue at all. Head of LA GOP:


So, in at least 1 "unbound" instance, no preference has been stated. Where did Trump get this notion that LA has given Cruz more than he earned? Shirley, he can't be making it up!

T.Lex i'm still having difficulty wrapping my brain around Louisiana once I started looking at it.

From: Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation Rules by State

March
State	Contest Date	Contest Type	Number of Delegates	Allocation Method	Qualifying Threshold[SUP]1[/SUP]	Winner-take-All Threshold[SUP]2[/SUP]	Backdoor Winner-Take-All[SUP]3[/SUP]	Number of Ballots Bound[SUP]4[/SUP]	Winner's Rounding[SUP]5[/SUP]	Pooled Delegates[SUP]6[/SUP]
Alabama	March 1	primary	50	hybrid	20%	50%	yes	Until release*	yes*	no
Kansas	March 5	caucus	40	proportional	10%	none	no	Until released	yes	no
Kentucky	March 5	caucus	46	proportional	5%	none	no	1st	no	yes
Louisiana	March 5	primary	46	proportional	20%	none	no	1st	no	no

From that I am getting that LA is proportional with no winner take all and a twenty percent threshold

From this: Louisiana Primary Election Results 2016 - The New York Times I'm getting

Trump has won Louisiana, according to A.P.

CANDIDATES	VOTE	PCT.		DELEGATES
Donald J. Trump	124,818	41.4%		18
Ted Cruz	113,949	37.8		18
Marco Rubio	33,804	11.2		5
John Kasich	19,355	6.4		—
Other	9,243	3.1		—

301,169 votes, 100% reporting (3,934 of 3,934 precincts)

So with a threshold of 20%, how does Robio get ANY delegates?

46 x 0.414 = 19.044 so one would expect Trump to get 19 delegates

46 x 0.378 = 17.388 so one would expect Cruz to get 17 delegates unless proportional is '...dependent on what your definition of is is'

 

[BugI02]

....Also, **** Kasich.

Well I'm pretty sure at least one poster from Ohio has been on here trying to tell you Kasich is a self-serving, politically ambitious jack***

 

[ArcadiaGP]

In new interview, Trump again touts polls showing him beating Hillary. Nope...and check out that trend line

 

[chipbennett]

T.Lex i'm still having difficulty wrapping my brain around Louisiana once I started looking at it.

From: Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation Rules by State

March
State	Contest Date	Contest Type	Number of Delegates	Allocation Method	Qualifying Threshold[SUP]1[/SUP]	Winner-take-All Threshold[SUP]2[/SUP]	Backdoor Winner-Take-All[SUP]3[/SUP]	Number of Ballots Bound[SUP]4[/SUP]	Winner's Rounding[SUP]5[/SUP]	Pooled Delegates[SUP]6[/SUP]
Alabama	March 1	primary	50	hybrid	20%	50%	yes	Until release*	yes*	no
Kansas	March 5	caucus	40	proportional	10%	none	no	Until released	yes	no
Kentucky	March 5	caucus	46	proportional	5%	none	no	1st	no	yes
Louisiana	March 5	primary	46	proportional	20%	none	no	1st	no	no

From that I am getting that LA is proportional with no winner take all and a twenty percent threshold

From this: Louisiana Primary Election Results 2016 - The New York Times I'm getting

Trump has won Louisiana, according to A.P.

CANDIDATES	VOTE	PCT.		DELEGATES
Donald J. Trump	124,818	41.4%		18
Ted Cruz	113,949	37.8		18
Marco Rubio	33,804	11.2		5
John Kasich	19,355	6.4		—
Other	9,243	3.1		—

301,169 votes, 100% reporting (3,934 of 3,934 precincts)

So with a threshold of 20%, how does Robio get ANY delegates?

46 x 0.414 = 19.044 so one would expect Trump to get 19 delegates

46 x 0.378 = 17.388 so one would expect Cruz to get 17 delegates unless proportional is '...dependent on what your definition of is is'

I've asked the same question, with no good answer.

The threshold does only apply to the at-large delegates, and not to the congressional-district delegates. That said, Rubio didn't win any congressional districts, either:

2016 Election Center ? Presidential Primaries and Caucuses ? 2016 Election Center ? CNNPolitics.com

I don't know how Rubio got any delegates in Louisiana, at all.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

T.Lex i'm still having difficulty wrapping my brain around Louisiana once I started looking at it.

From: Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation Rules by State


From that I am getting that LA is proportional with no winner take all and a twenty percent threshold

From this: Louisiana Primary Election Results 2016 - The New York Times I'm getting

Trump has won Louisiana, according to A.P.

CANDIDATES	VOTE	PCT.		DELEGATES
Donald J. Trump	124,818	41.4%		18
Ted Cruz	113,949	37.8		18
Marco Rubio	33,804	11.2		5
John Kasich	19,355	6.4		—
Other	9,243	3.1		—

301,169 votes, 100% reporting (3,934 of 3,934 precincts)

So with a threshold of 20%, how does Robio get ANY delegates?

46 x 0.414 = 19.044 so one would expect Trump to get 19 delegates

46 x 0.378 = 17.388 so one would expect Cruz to get 17 delegates unless proportional is '...dependent on what your definition of is is'

The 20% threshold applies to the at large delegates, there are also congressional district delegates. The at large delegates are distributed based on state wide percentage, the district depends on who wins that district. There are 25 at large, 18 district, and 3 automatic.
Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: LOUISIANA

ETA it seems that the district delegates are not allocated based on who wins in the district anymore.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Where the state party lost some discretion on that score is in the allocation of congressional district delegates. Four years ago, those delegates were elected in congressional district caucuses and were left unbound heading into the national convention in Tampa. For 2016, those delegates will selected at the state convention based on the results of the March 5 primary in each of the six congressional districts in the Pelican state.

The same 20% threshold to qualify for at-large delegates does not apply to the allocation of congressional district delegates. Instead, there is no qualifying threshold. Again, as has been mentioned elsewhere, there are only so many ways to proportionally allocate three congressional district delegates. Even with no threshold, then, this type of allocation tends to function as if it was a top three system: the top three candidates all are allocated one delegate. The exception is if one candidate wins a majority of the vote within a congressional district. In that case, such a candidate would round up and qualify for two delegates.[SUP]4[/SUP] Whether a candidate reaches that majority threshold, though, greatly depends on the extent to which the field has winnowed ahead of the Louisiana primary.

 

[T.Lex]

T.Lex i'm still having difficulty wrapping my brain around Louisiana once I started looking at it.

Yeah. Me too. Different source:
Louisiana Republican Delegation 2016

• • 18 District delegates, 3 from each of the state's 6 Congressional Districts, are proportionally allocated to Presidential contenders according to the primary vote in each Congressional District (rounded rules are not specified) [Rule 3. (d)].
  • 28 (10 base at-large delegates plus 15 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC) statewide delegates are proportionally allocated to those Presidential contenders who receive 20% or more of the total statewide vote (as rounded by the Executive Committee). The allocation is in proportion to the total statewide vote NOT the total vote of those candidates receiving 20% or more of statewide vote. The remaining delegates are unbound. The rule says "Presidential candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote ... will be allocated the same proportion, rounded by the Executive Committee ...." [Rule 4. (c)].

We do not have the vote by CD but according to the Louisiana Republican Party:
CD 1: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 2: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 3: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 4: Trump 1, Cruz 2
CD 5: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 6: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
Statewide: Trump 12, Cruz 11, Uncommitted 5.

 

[chipbennett]

Wait, I think I may know: the congressional district delegates don't have a threshold, and with rounding, unless one candidate ran away with a given district, each of the top three vote-getters would get one delegate. So, that must be the case for 5 of Louisiana's 6 congressional districts.

ETA:

Or, in other words, what T.Lex said, above.

 

[BugI02]

Well ya gotta love simple, straight forward rules

 

[Timjoebillybob]

Wait, I think I may know: the congressional district delegates don't have a threshold, and with rounding, unless one candidate ran away with a given district, each of the top three vote-getters would get one delegate. So, that must be the case for 5 of Louisiana's 6 congressional districts.

ETA:

Or, in other words, what T.Lex said, above.

That's what I'm getting. Top 3 each get one, unless someone gets a majority of the vote. The the winner gets 2 and 2nd place gets 1.

 

[Dead Duck]

In new interview, Trump again touts polls showing him beating Hillary. Nope...and check out that trend line

Why is it you want Clinton to be President again?

You're on a gun forum campaigning for her so I'm just curious.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Looks like they're moving forward with a challenge to decertify the delegates in question

Trump campaign to contest Louisiana delegates allocation | TheHill

 

[T.Lex]

Or, in other words, what T.Lex said, above.

You have my permission to start and/or end every post with that.

Why is it you want Clinton to be President again?

You're on a gun forum campaigning for her so I'm just curious.

This is very confusing to me. You think GPIahnushnuspishr is campaigning for... Hilary?

Looks like they're moving forward with a challenge to decertify the delegates in question

Trump campaign to contest Louisiana delegates allocation | TheHill

I guess we will rhetorically test the "go out and shoot someone in Times Square" theory.

 

[Route 45]

In new interview, Trump again touts polls showing him beating Hillary. Nope...and check out that trend line

You and your March polls.