The President Trump Immigration Thread

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  • jamil

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    I don't even want to be in this argument - I just call out a foul when I see it. It's no different than calling out the pastor for taking a verse out of context in Sunday's sermon.


    Heck, I may think the wall is a great idea - just argue about it fairly.

    My involvement in this part of the discussion revolves around this idea. I'm really not firmly on one side or other about the wall, but I do think illegal immigration is a big problem that needs solved. Is the wall a solution? I tend to be on the side of not, or at least not a complete solution, or a cost effective solution. The kind of wall Trump described sounds to me like it's really more of a monument to the failure of the US dyslexic immigration policy. But anyway, regardless of our opinions about solutions, we could have that discussion in a way that is more reasoned, less ideologically derived, than the argument that seems to have taken place.

    So, context...

    That, my friends, is the best example of a straw man argument I've seen all year.



    One can be against vehicle collisions, yet believe that a flat 20 mph speed limit is not the best solution.
    Implanting tracking chips in all Americans would help cops track criminals, but I'm not in favor of it.


    I.e. just because you're against a proposed solution doesn't mean you're in favor of the problem.
    That, my friends, is the best example of posturing I've seen all year

    You know, where you offer criticism but no better solutions (because you don't have any)

    One can be against a proposed solution because one doesn't really want the problem solved (until after tax time)

    To which I replied:

    There was a solution offered. You may disagree whether it’s better, but it was offered. You’ll neex to explain how that is posturing. What JK said is logically sound.

    One thing I want to make clear, the subject of "there was a solution offered" is not just JK offering one, but Kut has in the past said he supports holding employers accountable for hiring illegals. That's a solution offered. You may not agree with it, but that's just your opinion. Other people get to have their opinions too. We haven't seriously put any solutions in place in a serious way, to have enough facts to supersede opinions yet, because we have two factions in government that really don't want to solve the problem, for different reasons. So we have a really crappy immigration non-policy. But back to the main point...

    A lot of things can be 'logically sound' but be nonsense, going after those that employ illegals could be part of the plan but may not be as easy as you think. Are you going to just levy civil fines if a business is found to employ illegals or pursue some type of criminal charges? Who do you go after, the front line manager who's under pressure to keep costs down and productivity up or those at the top encouraging the policy? Many of these illegals have forged documents/SSN's then what do you do? It'll likely take a multi-pronged approach, build the wall and implement additional policies.

    It was argued that JK's post about strawman was "posturing" as well as (I think Kut's) criticism against the wall, with no better solutions offered. Well, "better" is in the eye of the beholder. You guys can argue about which solutions might be more effective/efficient at solving the problem. But when you get into the realm of "if you don't like my solution, you must not really be against the problem", it is plainly, factually, literally illogical. That was the only reason I posted. Please argue about the solutions. Give your honest pros and cons. Because there are many pros and cons in all the solutions. But, argue well. Just because someone disagrees with your favorite solution isn't cause to make judgements about their motives. What you said above doesn't address any of that. The post you replied to made no reference to which solutions are actually better. If you want to make a counterpoint to my complaints about the logic of the judgement of motives based on disliking a solution, fine. But this isn't that.

    [...]
    To my mind JK fulminating about straw man arguments is only slightly less egregious than Kut doing so if the aim is truly a system that makes effective changes as quickly as possible rather than hoping to see control of illegal immigration die the 'death of a thousand injunctions'. We have tried the solution Kut favors before with lackluster results. The argument that 'this time we'll get it right' is reminiscent of the arguments for why socialism won't fail 'this time'. As Einstein said, we can't solve our problems using the same methods used to create them

    First a little rant about paragraph #1 & 2. it's not Ockham's Razor. Which is most likely to be successful? That's opinion. You can give rationale for yours. Others can give their rationale for theirs. From my perspective there isn't an uncomplicated solution. It isn't an uncomplicated problem. The wall isn't uncomplicated. People crossing the border illegally is just one of many issues that contribute to the overall problem, and a wall would mostly address just that sub-issue. The wall isn't trivial to build. It will take years and billions of dollars to finish. There are plenty of ways to get around a physical barrier, probably some you haven't thought about, and these all need to be mitigated. That's complicated. Another complicated solution is is punishing employers who hire illegal aliens. That's not a simple solution either. There are plenty of ways to get around that too, which also have to be mitigated. This is just one of those areas where Ockham's Razor does not apply. Both are complicated solutions, and I think people are making assumptions about both solutions so that their favorite solution sounds like it's THE solution.

    The numbered paragraphs in your reply don't have to be competing solutions. Maybe walling off strategic parts of the southern border in conjunction with other programs to discourage illegal entry, like e-verify and mandatory penalties against companies who hire illegals, would be more effective than any single solution implemented fully. It is a multi-facited problem, for which there is no single solution. Arguing about which single solution is the silver bullet doesn't seem productive to me. It sounds like you're arguing competing ideologies rather than arguing to synthesize a solution. Take the weak parts of someone's argument, and make it better. Allow the competing participants to argue the weak points of your argument to make it better. The synthasis of which could be really great, but it seems we're more interested in our side's solution being the winner.

    But opinions about all that aside, down to the point which was more about the unnumbered paragraph, but even more about the "strawman" JK was talking about. My issue was that he presented a sound argument which you ignored. Don't take that personally that I'm pointing that out. I'm not doing it to be an *******, or to win a side. As you know, I think sides are stupid.

    So, you're against illegal immigration but against doing anything that might make it more difficult and aid in interdiction. Got it

    You're essentially implying that because Kut doesn't agree with YOUR solution, regardless that he continually says that he does not want illegal immigration, he must not really be against it, otherwise he would see the error of his judgment and want a big magnificent, beautiful wall, a big wall, with a big magnificent gate, which the Mexicans will pay for.

    JK was absolutely correct about the faulty logic of judging motives. It's attributing a position to a person that doesn't actually hold that position, then attacking that position. And that was all my post was about. Make your argument stronger by saying what are the actual weaknesses with Kut's position, and not making up things that are wrong with a position he doesn't hold. I mean, if we were all not on sides (and I mean "we" as in all humanity) we could crowd-source some really good solutions. But we let ideology and identity get in the way. I wouldn't be opposed to the idea of us vs them if "us" were the set of people who just want the most workable solutions that solves problems to the extent that we agree they are problems. The "them" is everyone else who doesn't want that.
     
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    JettaKnight

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    My involvement in this part of the discussion revolves around this idea. I'm really not firmly on one side or other about the wall, but I do think illegal immigration is a big problem that needs solved. Is the wall a solution? I tend to be on the side of not, or at least not a complete solution, or a cost effective solution. The kind of wall Trump described sounds to me like it's really more of a monument to the failure of the US dyslexic immigration policy. But anyway, regardless of our opinions about solutions, we could have that discussion in a way that is more reasoned, less ideologically derived, than the argument that seems to have taken place.

    That eloquently sums up my position.



    It's unfortunate that because I don't solidly favor it, I'm painted as a lawless liberal on INGO; and because I don't outright condemn it, I'm cast as a Trump sycophant at home.
     

    jamil

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    That eloquently sums up my position.



    It's unfortunate that because I don't solidly favor it, I'm painted as a lawless liberal on INGO; and because I don't outright condemn it, I'm cast as a Trump sycophant at home.

    This seems to me to be an indicator that in terms of a clear political identity, you're homeless.
     

    nonobaddog

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    I see the wall as an unfortunate but essential part of the solution. As one learns more about the illegal trafficking going on in mexico it becomes obvious it needs to stop sooner and not just allowed to slowly wither. Other parts of a deterrent solution will take longer to be effective, if they can ever achieve effectiveness at all.

    The wall can help not only with the illegal alien invasion problem but also with the illegal drug flow problem.
     

    SheepDog4Life

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    Gee that sounds nice and simple.
    But...
    Problems with writing the bill. Plenty of opportunities to hork this up.
    Problems with getting it passed - brings to mind snowballs melting and flying pigs and monkeys.
    Problems with unintended consequences.
    Problems with identifying illegals - basic definition, legal status ambiguity, anchor babies, extended family, lying, phony documents
    Problems with enforcement - amnesty regions that refuse to enforce, manpower required
    Problems with legal issues - millions of court cases, millions of appeal cases, layers and layers of wonk

    Meanwhile back at the border... they just keep coming because nothing changed to stop them.

    I don't think new laws and penalties are required... just one change in enforcing existing laws: recognizing that accepting phony papers from hundreds of illegals in employment is knowingly and purposefully done to employ illegals. And this isn't a policy decision made by first line HR recruiters and managers, it is company policy established by the CEO and head of HR.

    Go after them!

    If you're running a company with hundreds of illegals on the payroll because you accept phony papers, instead of using e-Verify, that this is done purposefully and from the head of the company down will be prosecuted to the maximum extent of the current law.
     

    jamil

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    I see the wall as an unfortunate but essential part of the solution. As one learns more about the illegal trafficking going on in mexico it becomes obvious it needs to stop sooner and not just allowed to slowly wither. Other parts of a deterrent solution will take longer to be effective, if they can ever achieve effectiveness at all.

    The wall can help not only with the illegal alien invasion problem but also with the illegal drug flow problem.

    Okay, does it need to cost so much? Does it need to be across the entire southern border? Can this just be part of the solution? What about all the people who come here on work visas and then overstay their visas? I'm not sure I buy that this is the vast majority of the illegal population but it's certainly at least a very sizeable chunk of it. The wall won't deter that.

    But anyway. I think it's hard to get any of it actually done. Trump got some funding for the wall, but there isn't a lot of support by chamber-o-commerce Republicans or Democrats to get it done. Republicans want the cheap, under-the-table workers, and Democrats want a steady flow of potential democrat voters coming across an open border. Unless there can be some strong leadership for a comprehensive solution, AND some consensus on what the comprehensive solution is, I don't think a fix is coming anytime soon.
     

    nonobaddog

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    Okay, does it need to cost so much? Does it need to be across the entire southern border? Can this just be part of the solution? What about all the people who come here on work visas and then overstay their visas? I'm not sure I buy that this is the vast majority of the illegal population but it's certainly at least a very sizeable chunk of it. The wall won't deter that.

    But anyway. I think it's hard to get any of it actually done. Trump got some funding for the wall, but there isn't a lot of support by chamber-o-commerce Republicans or Democrats to get it done. Republicans want the cheap, under-the-table workers, and Democrats want a steady flow of potential democrat voters coming across an open border. Unless there can be some strong leadership for a comprehensive solution, AND some consensus on what the comprehensive solution is, I don't think a fix is coming anytime soon.

    Like I said above - PART of the solution.

    I think there is support for it. This guy is building a private section of the wall. He obviously supports it. He also wants a contract to build more wall.

    BBZ9Esv.img
     

    jamil

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    Like I said above - PART of the solution.

    I think there is support for it. This guy is building a private section of the wall. He obviously supports it. He also wants a contract to build more wall.

    BBZ9Esv.img

    If he's building it on private property with private funds (not in an easement) I have no problem with that.
     

    Ingomike

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    I've wondered about this. Do you really think Mexico is putting in an honest effort to stop immigration, or do you think it's just window dressing to sell to the gringos. I can see see then working along their southern border to prevent it, because they don't want them draining their country. But at the northern border? Why prevent people who are a drain on your economy from leaving?

    I agree that Mexico has little incentive to stop them at their northern border, but suspect there may be carrots extended to entice them to shut it down on the southern border.
     

    BugI02

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    [snip]
    First a little rant about paragraph #1 & 2. it's not Ockham's Razor. Which is most likely to be successful? That's opinion. You can give rationale for yours. Others can give their rationale for theirs. From my perspective there isn't an uncomplicated solution. It isn't an uncomplicated problem. The wall isn't uncomplicated. People crossing the border illegally is just one of many issues that contribute to the overall problem, and a wall would mostly address just that sub-issue. The wall isn't trivial to build. It will take years and billions of dollars to finish. There are plenty of ways to get around a physical barrier, probably some you haven't thought about, and these all need to be mitigated. That's complicated. Another complicated solution is is punishing employers who hire illegal aliens. That's not a simple solution either. There are plenty of ways to get around that too, which also have to be mitigated. This is just one of those areas where Ockham's Razor does not apply. Both are complicated solutions, and I think people are making assumptions about both solutions so that their favorite solution sounds like it's THE solution.

    Assuming we were all talking about deterring illegal immigration from south of the border, I took the question to be much simpler; whether to embark on a path that offered the possibility of affecting the problem now or in effect kick the can down the road in favor of some program that presents enormous obstacles to even trying it. That is why I quoted Gorshkov.

    Given that, straight from the William's mouth:

    Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate
    Plurality is never to be posited without necessity.


    Frustra fit per plura, quod potest fieri per pauciora.
    It is pointless to do with more what can be done with fewer.

    Perhaps you are a little too caught up in the current usage/formulation about Ockham's Razor. I have always felt it to mean the simplest solution with the least assumptions is usually the best solution. You certainly can, and most likely will dispute my interpretation of it and whether the wall is actually a 'solution' but I see that as semantics. I see the current legislative environment as a chance to achieve real change in the problem but one that could be squandered by dithering in search of a better or best solution. I see the wall as the simplest, most executable solution with a reasonable chance to achieve useful results; and doing something implementable that might not be best as preferrable to studying the problem some more and positing 'solutions' that are unlikely to be implemented or at least not in any recognizeable form

    I actually do think that people proposing waiting on future likely untenable solutions to problems should not be given the benefit of the doubt that they really want the problem solved without further proof of intent. Gorshkov knew what he was about

    Edit: Eventually you have to finalize a design and put the sucker into production, everything else just leads to creeping featurism
     

    BugI02

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    That eloquently sums up my position.



    It's unfortunate that because I don't solidly favor it, I'm painted as a lawless liberal on INGO; and because I don't outright condemn it, I'm cast as a Trump sycophant at home.


    You do know that talking about being 'the grey man' has almost nothing to do with being indecisive about your beliefs, yes? :)






    Guten tag, Jetta
     

    Ingomike

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    Okay, does it need to cost so much? Does it need to be across the entire southern border? Can this just be part of the solution? What about all the people who come here on work visas and then overstay their visas? I'm not sure I buy that this is the vast majority of the illegal population but it's certainly at least a very sizeable chunk of it. The wall won't deter that.

    But anyway. I think it's hard to get any of it actually done. Trump got some funding for the wall, but there isn't a lot of support by chamber-o-commerce Republicans or Democrats to get it done. Republicans want the cheap, under-the-table workers, and Democrats want a steady flow of potential democrat voters coming across an open border. Unless there can be some strong leadership for a comprehensive solution, AND some consensus on what the comprehensive solution is, I don't think a fix is coming anytime soon.

    Maybe sooner than you think, the Republican Party is being rebuilt into the policies of DJT, there are dozens of squishy house members retiring this election because they can't support the party change, and that is on top of a good number in the last election. Pelosi will have to be dragged out by the feet to leave the house, but pu**y Paul Pyan, who spent years to earn the Speakership, quits because he cannot be the leader of today's Republican Party.

    Change is coming, one way or another. The status quo is over for both parties...
     

    jamil

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    Assuming we were all talking about deterring illegal immigration from south of the border, I took the question to be much simpler; whether to embark on a path that offered the possibility of affecting the problem now or in effect kick the can down the road in favor of some program that presents enormous obstacles to even trying it. That is why I quoted Gorshkov.

    Given that, straight from the William's mouth:



    Perhaps you are a little too caught up in the current usage/formulation about Ockham's Razor. I have always felt it to mean the simplest solution with the least assumptions is usually the best solution. You certainly can, and most likely will dispute my interpretation of it and whether the wall is actually a 'solution' but I see that as semantics. I see the current legislative environment as a chance to achieve real change in the problem but one that could be squandered by dithering in search of a better or best solution. I see the wall as the simplest, most executable solution with a reasonable chance to achieve useful results; and doing something implementable that might not be best as preferrable to studying the problem some more and positing 'solutions' that are unlikely to be implemented or at least not in any recognizeable form

    I actually do think that people proposing waiting on future likely untenable solutions to problems should not be given the benefit of the doubt that they really want the problem solved without further proof of intent. Gorshkov knew what he was about

    Edit: Eventually you have to finalize a design and put the sucker into production, everything else just leads to creeping featurism

    We're probably not going to agree on the applicability of Ockham's Razor to these solutions. But you're entitled to your opinion about it, of course, as well as your opinion about the wall.
     

    jamil

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    Maybe sooner than you think, the Republican Party is being rebuilt into the policies of DJT, there are dozens of squishy house members retiring this election because they can't support the party change, and that is on top of a good number in the last election. Pelosi will have to be dragged out by the feet to leave the house, but pu**y Paul Pyan, who spent years to earn the Speakership, quits because he cannot be the leader of today's Republican Party.

    Change is coming, one way or another. The status quo is over for both parties...

    The preferred way of change in a free society is through consensus. Obama tried to hope and change us into his idea of change, and that brought us Trump. The thing that I don't like about the new Republican party is that if it goes full on into populism, it will likely lose what little sense of liberty it ever had. Principle being defeated by populism isn't a great thing for a free society either.
     

    BugI02

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    I don't think new laws and penalties are required... just one change in enforcing existing laws: recognizing that accepting phony papers from hundreds of illegals in employment is knowingly and purposefully done to employ illegals. And this isn't a policy decision made by first line HR recruiters and managers, it is company policy established by the CEO and head of HR.

    Go after them!

    If you're running a company with hundreds of illegals on the payroll because you accept phony papers, instead of using e-Verify, that this is done purposefully and from the head of the company down will be prosecuted to the maximum extent of the current law.

    I would refer you to Enron, Purdue Pharma, and just about anyone involved in the Great Recession and ask you how holding any of the principals accountable is going. That is the danger of trying to penalize the people making the decisions on this within the US court system. It's analogous to illegal drugs, you'll get a few low level people but the heads of the 'cartels' just skate

    You wouldn't even be able to prove execs knowingly and purposefully employed illegals unless you wrote that into the statute, and then that would be subject to court challenge. There will always be a lot of daylight between what we 'know' and what we can prove, and that's not a bad thing. Purdue Pharma's production of Oxycontin was 10X the amount of legitimate prescriptions for it. I 'know' they were merchants of death, but unless I can prove that they shouldn't be prosecuted for murder. All we can get them on is cooking the books, and settling and their company being bankrupt doesn't hurt their bank balances much but it does hurt a lot of people who were working for them. The states get more money to waste on programs, some of which adheres to sticky fingers, and the little people get screwed (again)

     

    Ingomike

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    The preferred way of change in a free society is through consensus. Obama tried to hope and change us into his idea of change, and that brought us Trump. The thing that I don't like about the new Republican party is that if it goes full on into populism, it will likely lose what little sense of liberty it ever had. Principle being defeated by populism isn't a great thing for a free society either.

    It feels like a constitutional populism but politically we are very fractured. I have believed that the two party norm will split, we will be thirds, conservative, middle, and AOC types. Where the middle swings is where we will go.
     

    BugI02

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    If he's building it on private property with private funds (not in an easement) I have no problem with that.

    Please recall that there is already an act, that dates from the late 1800s I believe, that gives the FedGov title to the land within a stated distance from the actual border and is only in doubt in a few places mostly in Texas and New Mexico where deeds were granted prior to the act (and in some cases prior to the settlement of the border lines). No easement necessary, just exercise existing authority. Adverse possession not an issue because no Federal property tax, so they can't be said to have been paying taxes on the land in lieu of the deed holder
     

    jamil

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    It feels like a constitutional populism but politically we are very fractured. I have believed that the two party norm will split, we will be thirds, conservative, middle, and AOC types. Where the middle swings is where we will go.

    I don't think it's a constitutional populism at all. I see people justifying things just because it's their side. I'm not talking about here per se, but throughout the country, and some things I hear some Trump supporting pundits say.

    Where the middle swings is where we always go, and we've never really been two parties ideologically. The political beliefs are and have always been diverse, it's just that the extremes are pretty phat right now. But we have only two pigeon holes within which we all have to fit our political beliefs, Republican or Democrat. I don't think we'll see an increase in third parties at all. We'll see a battle for control of the two. Trumpism has pretty much taken over the Republican party, which I do not see as a great thing. And the battle is still waging for control over the Democrats, but it looks to me like the AOC faction is making pretty good headway.
     
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