The President Trump Immigration Thread

[T.Lex]

Wow - 5k more Border Patrol agents, and possibly up to 10k more "enforcement" agents. I wonder if these are new hires or shifting people from places like the EPA.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Illegal immigrants would be aggressively detained, deported under new draft DHS guidelines | NOLA.com

ICE: 949,382 illegals with 'removal orders' still free, raids get just .07% | Washington Examiner

Roughly 1 million (950k) illegal aliens have had their cases heard by a judge and face a court issued "Order of Deportation". They have been accorded due process, had their day in court and lost. Under Obama, these people were not a "priority" unless they committed, and were convicted of, a violent felony. Under Trump, if apprehended, they are deported.

While the above source is right-biased, the source below is left-biased with the same numbers (950k). Here is a pertinent quote from the Slate (left-biased) article linked below:

Hundreds of thousands of immigrants with deportation orders attend regular check-ins with ICE; lawyers fear the era of prosecutorial discretion that allowed people like them to remain in the U.S. has now ended. "I called all my clients and said, 'You've got to be prepared for them to take you into custody,' " said Cheryl David, an immigration lawyer in New York. "I'm pretty sure they're all going to be detained or told to get a ticket and leave on their own." The probationary check-ins with ICE had always felt precarious, she said, because the law had never been changed. There are over 950,000 individuals with final deportation orders living in the United States and not in custody.

Are Trump's immigration actions normal?

tl;dr: About 1 million of the illegals Trump has prioritized but Obama allowed to stay already have court issued Orders of Deportation.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Wow - 5k more Border Patrol agents, and possibly up to 10k more "enforcement" agents. I wonder if these are new hires or shifting people from places like the EPA.

Lol... good luck with that. Border patrol I already think, unlike other agencies, has a hiring age past 37. They better move it back to 50, and do away with a good number or pre-reqs (i.e. degree, drug use)

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Wow - 5k more Border Patrol agents, and possibly up to 10k more "enforcement" agents. I wonder if these are new hires or shifting people from places like the EPA.

Some portion of the ICE enforcement officers could be staffed merely by transferring those ICE agents currently working as "parole officers" for the hundreds of thousands with Final Deportation Orders who remain here and check-in on a regular basis with ICE under Obama's deferred prosecution program.

LATE EDIT: I did some back of the napkin math on this... many articles cite that about 60% of those with deportation orders appeal then disappear, meaning about 40% report back regularly, or 400,000. Some googling indicates that regular parol officers handle 150-250 cases, so let's say an average of 200.

400,000/200 = about 2,000 additional ICE agents freed up for enforcement versus deferred prosecution "parole" monitoring. This might have already occurred via the EO. No idea what the "tooth to tail" ratio is for ICE, but that would doubtless be a meaningful, immediate surge.

 

[T.Lex]

Itl;dr: About 1 million of the illegals Trump has prioritized but Obama allowed to stay already have court issued Orders of Deportation.

I think a safe/consensus estimate of total illegal population in the US is 15M. (I believe it was 11M in 2005, some projections up to 20M.)

So we rid ourselves of these million, and let's add in another million (speculative, of course) who are active criminals and should be deported. Trump has, I believe, promised to continue DACA, which protects approximately another million. That would leave more than 10M.

That's still a big number.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I think a safe/consensus estimate of total illegal population in the US is 15M. (I believe it was 11M in 2005, some projections up to 20M.)

So we rid ourselves of these million, and let's add in another million (speculative, of course) who are active criminals and should be deported. Trump has, I believe, promised to continue DACA, which protects approximately another million. That would leave more than 10M.

That's still a big number.

We could quibble, most sources I've seen say the illegal population already peeked at 12 million and is currently 11 million. And, if you add to the felon criminals and existing deportation orders, those with multiple misdemeanors, even with overlap, you get to Trump's 2-3 million. But, because that still leaves 8-9 million, which as you say is still a big number, so no need to quibble.

Regarding DACA, I haven't read anywhere that Trump plans to continue DACA. He has, understandably, taken time to think about it... my guess is he will grand-father in existing DACA recipients, while halting the issue of new DACA credentials. I could see a program for existing DACA beneficiaries that if they get a degree, get a job and keep their noses clean, they could have a green card/citizenship path... but not if there is a continuing "magnet" to attract more.

tl;dr: Even Trump's increased enforcement leaves 8-10 million illegals, a big number and a big issue. Trump likely will not cancel DACA, but end new issuances, grand-fathering existing benficiaries.

 

[HoughMade]

I think's it's pretty unrealistic to expect that every illegal is going to be rounded up and deported. What is not unrealistic is the idea that we can enhance border security and, over time (years if not decades...assuming the commitment to do so), through attrition, we can reduce the number of illegal aliens.

 

[printcraft]

I think's it's pretty unrealistic to expect that every illegal is going to be rounded up and deported. What is not unrealistic is the idea that we can enhance border security and, over time (years if not decades...assuming the commitment to do so), through attrition, we can reduce the number of illegal aliens.

That there is ANY squealing over removing people in direct violation of the law of this country is the real tragedy here.

 

[T.Lex]

tl;dr: Even Trump's increased enforcement leaves 8-10 million illegals, a big number and a big issue. Trump likely will not cancel DACA, but end new issuances, grand-fathering existing benficiaries.

For INGO purposes, I have no problem agreeing to ~8M remaining after the current paroxysm of deportations. As we agree, that is still a big policy issue. I would hope that, generally, we could also agree that those that remain would be generally law abiding. Otherwise, they would be in the millions Trump is removing.

As for DACA, "with heart" will have to mean at least grandfather-ing. With Trump, it is certainly hard to tell, but my expectation is that he'll continue the program based on other statements he made during the campaign. Heck, I could even see him broadening it to the families of DACA. That would somewhat parallel the Bush/Clinton extensions.

 

[BugI02]

After you deport the 'deportables' why not proceed to tighten the screws on those that employ the ones that are left. I see no reason not to have zero tolerance for illegals as a goal even if it is thought to be unachievable

 

[T.Lex]

After you deport the 'deportables' why not proceed to tighten the screws on those that employ the ones that are left. I see no reason not to have zero tolerance for illegals as a goal even if it is thought to be unachievable

Some percentage of illegals are employed without the employer being aware.

I think as a goal, there should be corollary policies for the more difficult cases.

 

[jamil]

After you deport the 'deportables' why not proceed to tighten the screws on those that employ the ones that are left. I see no reason not to have zero tolerance for illegals as a goal even if it is thought to be unachievable

How? E-verify is a joke. It's been around since the 90's. When you hire a contractor, who shows up to do the work? Roofing? Landscaping? Framing? Wiring? Who shows up to do the work? I'll tell you this much, they don't typically speak much English.

Whatever the government can devise, the black market can figure out how to get around it. We can curb illegal immigration. We can make it harder to come here. We can make it harder for people here illegally to stay here. We can't stop it.

People keep talking about "self-deportation". Yeah, maybe a little. Maybe enough to put a dent into it. Prolly not enough to even say most though.

 

[jamil]

Some percentage of illegals are employed without the employer being aware.

I think as a goal, there should be corollary policies for the more difficult cases.

Back when I lived in Missippi a general contractor friend of mine told me he thought he was going to have to "git him some Mexicans" so he could compete. Said he hated to do it, but other general contractors in the area were outbidding him because they were using cheap illegal labor through the many subcontractors who provide various kinds of construction crews.

It's a common practice to hire illegals through subcontractors. Some get busted, but most don't. Keep it small and rural, and they're less likely to get busted. And if they do get busted, the subcontractor just shuts down and restarts in another area. Makes it hard to prosecute when all the people who can testify that the general contractor knew the crews were made up of illegal labor, disappear into the landscape.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

For INGO purposes, I have no problem agreeing to ~8M remaining after the current paroxysm of deportations. As we agree, that is still a big policy issue. I would hope that, generally, we could also agree that those that remain would be generally law abiding. Otherwise, they would be in the millions Trump is removing

I don't see how they could be otherwise law-abiding. Unless they are totally dependent upon the welfare system, they must either be:

1. Tax evaders
2. Identity stealers

Am I missing something?

As for DACA, "with heart" will have to mean at least grandfather-ing. With Trump, it is certainly hard to tell, but my expectation is that he'll continue the program based on other statements he made during the campaign. Heck, I could even see him broadening it to the families of DACA. That would somewhat parallel the Bush/Clinton extensions.

Both DACA and DAPA are extra-legal, unconstitutional projections of presidential power into the legislature's realm. I don't see that happening, but I do see him allowing existing DACA's to remain for a time while he figures out what to do with them.

After you deport the 'deportables' why not proceed to tighten the screws on those that employ the ones that are left. I see no reason not to have zero tolerance for illegals as a goal even if it is thought to be unachievable

I do believe that squeezing on the eVerify/I-9 side gets the needle moving in the right direction, and at least reduces, though doesn't eliminate, the "job magnet". I do believe that in order to reach critical mass, increased LEGAL immigration, both work permits and paths to citizenship, are necessary.

Once the ball starts rolling, those who are here face a choice... remain here amongst a smaller and smaller illegal population, waiting until you get caught... or return home to get in line to return legally.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Back when I lived in Missippi a general contractor friend of mine told me he thought he was going to have to "git him some Mexicans" so he could compete. Said he hated to do it, but other general contractors in the area were outbidding him because they were using cheap illegal labor through the many subcontractors who provide various kinds of construction crews.

It's a common practice to hire illegals through subcontractors. Some get busted, but most don't. Keep it small and rural, and they're less likely to get busted. And if they do get busted, the subcontractor just shuts down and restarts in another area. Makes it hard to prosecute when all the people who can testify that the general contractor knew the crews were made up of illegal labor, disappear into the landscape.

Hmmm... sounds suspiciously like a RICO case given it's repetitive nature. I wonder how many contractors/subs in federal pen for 10-20 it would take to make a large dent in that market?

 

[BugI02]

Even illegals leave a trail in the world. Employ a civilian contractor skilled in big data analytics with payment per successful deportation

 

[T.Lex]

I don't see how they could be otherwise law-abiding. Unless they are totally dependent upon the welfare system, they must either be:

1. Tax evaders
2. Identity stealers

Am I missing something?

Yes.

I've alluded to a couple situations upthread that I am aware of. These may perhaps be fairly classified as "falling through the cracks" but it is a non-zero problem. I do not know how extensive the issues are, but for me - someone only tangentially involved in this area - to see more than 1 makes me think it could be a significant number.

The best way to describe the issue is that there are people who have valid SSNs who are not:
1. Tax evaders - they pay their taxes.
2. Identity stealers - the SSN is linked to the right people.

Now, they may have incorrectly answered whether they are employable - often because they believe they are.

Both DACA and DAPA are extra-legal, unconstitutional projections of presidential power into the legislature's realm. I don't see that happening, but I do see him allowing existing DACA's to remain for a time while he figures out what to do with them.

I'll quibble with "unconstitutional." The executive is constitutionally vested with the authority to administer/enforce the laws. That includes prosecutorial discretion.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Yes.

I've alluded to a couple situations upthread that I am aware of. These may perhaps be fairly classified as "falling through the cracks" but it is a non-zero problem. I do not know how extensive the issues are, but for me - someone only tangentially involved in this area - to see more than 1 makes me think it could be a significant number.

The best way to describe the issue is that there are people who have valid SSNs who are not:
1. Tax evaders - they pay their taxes.
2. Identity stealers - the SSN is linked to the right people.

Now, they may have incorrectly answered whether they are employable - often because they believe they are.

Is it a significant number compared to the either the 12 or 15 million? I think not.

As I've said before, and I think you are talking about people who were legally adopted from abroad whose adoptive parents didn't follow thru on the child's naturalization paperwork, that these are indeed special cases. I think even the most hard-nosed judge would allow those individuals an opportunity to file the correct paperwork and not issue a deportation order. (is your experience otherwise?)

I'll quibble with "unconstitutional." The executive is constitutionally vested with the authority to administer/enforce the laws. That includes prosecutorial discretion.

It's absolutely true that the president can "ignore" the law and not prosecute someone here illegally... he cannot, however, create "new law" to "make" them legal. The first is prosecutorial discretion, the latter is far beyond that and not within any Constitutionally vested power that a president possesses, nor is there statute that delegates that power to him.

Is there a statute that allows the President to confer legal status upon any class of people he chooses? You know, kind of the like the one that allows him to block entry for any class of people he chooses? Lol!

 

[T.Lex]

Is it a significant number compared to the either the 12 or 15 million? I think not.

I guess that depends. I think we're down to about 8M non-active-criminals. Even 1% would be (and check my math) 80k people. That's statistically meaningful IMHO.

As I've said before, and I think you are talking about people who were legally adopted from abroad whose adoptive parents didn't follow thru on the child's naturalization paperwork, that these are indeed special cases. I think even the most hard-nosed judge would allow those individuals an opportunity to file the correct paperwork and not issue a deportation order. (is your experience otherwise?)

That is one subset. There are other subsets that include expired work visa issues and marriages where things were not properly followed up on. And these all probably fit in the 1% - although that's entirely speculative.

And this issue leads directly to....

It's absolutely true that the president can "ignore" the law and not prosecute someone here illegally... he cannot, however, create "new law" to "make" them legal. The first is prosecutorial discretion, the latter is far beyond that and not within any Constitutionally vested power that a president possesses, nor is there statute that delegates that power to him.

Is there a statute that allows the President to confer legal status upon any class of people he chooses? You know, kind of the like the one that allows him to block entry for any class of people he chooses? Lol!

Yes - executive authority. It is like diversion programs for people who go 10 mph over the speed limit, but not 11. Lines are drawn, some people left in, some left out. I thought that's basically what the argument was favoring deportation.

Going back to your administrative law judge issue - there's no statutory "do over" that I am aware of. (And if there is, many immigration lawyers appear to be unfamiliar with it, too.) I don't think a judge has the power to allow someone to correct the paperwork - sometime decades afterward - and avoid a deportation order.

Or are you advocating for judges to not follow the law?

ETA:
Oh, and my understanding of DACA is not that he made them "legal." Rather, he guaranteed no enforcement and allowed them to apply for work visas in some sort of preferential way. I haven't investigated it that deeply, as I don't think that's a situation I've come across.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Going back to your administrative law judge issue - there's no statutory "do over" that I am aware of. (And if there is, many immigration lawyers appear to be unfamiliar with it, too.) I don't think a judge has the power to allow someone to correct the paperwork - sometime decades afterward - and avoid a deportation order.

I have less sympathy for someone who "inadvertently" overstays a work permit. I've known many who have had them, and to a person, they knew the EXACT date that they expired by heart. On the other hand, do you personally know of people legally adopted as children by US citizen parents who were later deported solely because paperwork wasn't filed?

ETA: And, I would agree that these "special cases" are likely down in the 1% range... hence, not the "general" topic of conversation... 99% broke other laws in addition to being illegally present/illegal entry.

ETA:
Oh, and my understanding of DACA is not that he made them "legal." Rather, he guaranteed no enforcement and allowed them to apply for work visas in some sort of preferential way. I haven't investigated it that deeply, as I don't think that's a situation I've come across.

No, it extended far beyond just not deporting them... not sure on DACA, but DAPA made them legal residents for state benefits, driver's licenses, etc. Those were the standing issues the states sued upon...