The OFFICIAL Trump/HRC/2016 General Election Thread...

[HubertGummer]

Hell, that's not even the reason I dislike them most. I dislike them most because they want too much control over me. And they want an even more powerful government that can exert even more control. I'd vote for a black mexican tranny Muslim who advocates limited, constitutional government over a middle aged white socialist male any day.

Exactly this.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Interesting. A political flier telling you to not deviate from the two-party system.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Decent take

This Is The Least Important Election Of Our Lifetimes

 

[hoosierdoc]

Some obscure no-name organization makes a flier, Whocares.

go to their website and all you see is a donate page and nothing else

 

[ArcadiaGP]

New RCP map with no toss-ups

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

 

[hoosierdoc]

What is NE2?

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Makes me think
Ingo is terrible at sources. An orthodontist from Boco Raton had documents exclusively leaked to him by the department of state and posted them to his blog?

I heard something about this stuff on Hannity and the linked item was the most easily accessible so I posted it up for INGO to vet.

 

[T.Lex]

What is NE2?

Nebraska and Maine both award delegates based on congressional district. So you have an NE2 and ME2.

That map GP posted still looks like a best-case for DJT at this point. In the "good news" department, if he gets all those states, a couple of those blue ones could flip to give him the election.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

New RCP map with no toss-ups

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

Appears to be reasonable, but if New Mexico flips, the election goes to Trump. Both Hillary and Trump have started spending money in that state in the last day or two. Seems they think it is competitive.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Trump's lead in this poll is getting bigger. Seems the news is taking a toll on Hillary.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

 

[T.Lex]

Trump's lead in this poll is getting bigger. Seems the news is taking a toll on Hillary.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

(I've never liked that poll, regardless who they say is winning.)

The "who do you think will win" still favors HRC by a considerable margin, but it is narrowing. I really wonder where they came up with their pool of "voters."

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Decent take

This Is The Least Important Election Of Our Lifetimes

While I have no problem with the take on the past elections, the current one will determine whether we are a nation of laws of a nation of corruption. There is an unprecedented internal struggle going on in the gov't right now, particularly within the three letter agencies (the most public being the FBI). If Hillary wins, it will be game over for the honorable anti-corruption forces within the gov't. The disclosures and leaks are getting more numerous and damning for a reason. If the FBI doesn't succeed, there will never be another opportunity - Hillary will burn through the FBI like Sherman.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

(I've never liked that poll, regardless who they say is winning.)

The "who do you think will win" still favors HRC by a considerable margin, but it is narrowing. I really wonder where they came up with their pool of "voters."

I don't know the methodology behind this particular poll, but I do like how they have it broken down into numerous subsets where you can see changes over time within any particular subset. I agree that a look into their voter pool and sampling methodology would be informative.

 

[T.Lex]

I don't know the methodology behind this particular poll, but I do like how they have it broken down into numerous subsets where you can see changes over time within any particular subset. I agree that a look into their voter pool and sampling methodology would be informative.

They handpicked about 3k people back before the conventions. They don't explain how these people were picked. Then they ask about 400 of them each day who they'll vote for and who they think will win. They already have the demographics on each person because it is the same pool every day (but a random subset). Then:

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election

The result IMHO is interesting, but not particularly valuable. It has trended more pro-Trump than other sets of polls.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force | POLITICO

KKK, neo-Nazis and militias plan to monitor urban polling places and suppress the black vote.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

They handpicked about 3k people back before the conventions. They don't explain how these people were picked. Then they ask about 400 of them each day who they'll vote for and who they think will win. They already have the demographics on each person because it is the same pool every day (but a random subset). Then:


The result IMHO is interesting, but not particularly valuable. It has trended more pro-Trump than other sets of polls.

Thank you for the details. I was aware that it tended to be more pro-Trump than other polls. The two things I was particularly interested in was the overall change and the changes within particular subsets that are driving the overall change. For example, I noticed the >$75,000 bracket breaking noticeably towards Trump very late in the game.

Do you know of any other polls that show similar subset breakdowns over time? If you know what % of which group is breaking a certain way vs. maintaining status quo, you get an idea not just of which voters are in play, but roughly how many total are in play (since certain subsets make up different % of population).

 

[Ericpwp]

LOL@MSM

Racist Trump has rigged the election.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

LOL@MSM

Racist Trump has rigged the election.

What about the situation do you disagree with?

People are voting twice because Trump has them thinking it's all rigged.

Now unsavory groups are going to police polling stations because, again, Trump has them convinced it's rigged.

Why is this an "MSM" thing? Why not just see the story, and say... "Huh, that's a ****ty thing that's going to occur."

Personally, I don't tie this directly to Trump at all. Just the less-than-great groups that seem to be supporting him in this story. At least, I don't think he told anyone to police polling places.

 

[T.Lex]

Do you know of any other polls that show similar subset breakdowns over time? If you know what % of which group is breaking a certain way vs. maintaining status quo, you get an idea not just of which voters are in play, but roughly how many total are in play (since certain subsets make up different % of population).

Most of them post methodologies (to at least some detail), and those by universities tend to use the same methodology for each poll. Some of them do present the historic data, too. At 270towin.com they present an RCP-like breakdown of recent polls. When you click on a state, you can also select a poll to compare prior polls by that same group. I haven't gotten very deep into it in terms of demographics, but you can at least get a flavor for it. I suspect the drill down information is available on the site of the pollster, at some level.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Clinton’s campaign is returning thousands of dollars in donations linked to a huge straw-donor scheme