The (Current year) General Political/Salma Hayek discussion Thread Part V

[jamil]

Of course. And neither is Biden's. I see it more as a sampling-type poll. The fair presumption is that the general-only voters will vote in roughly the same ratios as the primary voters. That's a big assumption, of course, but I think it is fair. It may be close, but I don't see any significant risk that Indiana will go blue in November.

Interesting theory. But FiveThirtyEight blog says voter turnout in primaries means nothing for general elections.

 

[T.Lex]

Interesting theory. But FiveThirtyEight blog says voter turnout in primaries means nothing for general elections.

Specific to Indiana?

2016 Primary:
Republican total votes - ~1.5M.
Dem total votes - ~640k.

So, you would think the Republican would win.

2016 General:
Republican - ~1.5M.
Dem - ~1M.

Now, the Dems picked up about 400k non-primary voters, in a very contentious race.

Can't read much into 2012, but for completeness....

2012 Primary:
Republican - ~590k.
Dem - (Obama was uncontested.)

2012 General:
Republican - ~1.4M
Dem - ~1.1M.

The 2008 cycle brings us back to some comparators.

2008 Primary:
Republican - ~411k.
Dem - ~1.3M

So, you'd think the Dem would win.

2008 General:
Republican - ~1.345M
Dem (Obama) - ~1.375M

Now, it is clearly not a predictor of margin, but in the last couple cycles there is enough to support the theory. I'll try to go back a bit further, if you want.

 

[jamil]

Specific to Indiana?

2016 Primary:
Republican total votes - ~1.5M.
Dem total votes - ~640k.

So, you would think the Republican would win.

2016 General:
Republican - ~1.5M.
Dem - ~1M.

Now, the Dems picked up about 400k non-primary voters, in a very contentious race.

Can't read much into 2012, but for completeness....

2012 Primary:
Republican - ~590k.
Dem - (Obama was uncontested.)

2012 General:
Republican - ~1.4M
Dem - ~1.1M.

The 2008 cycle brings us back to some comparators.

2008 Primary:
Republican - ~411k.
Dem - ~1.3M

So, you'd think the Dem would win.

2008 General:
Republican - ~1.345M
Dem (Obama) - ~1.375M

Now, it is clearly not a predictor of margin, but in the last couple cycles there is enough to support the theory. I'll try to go back a bit further, if you want.

What? Why are you saying I’m saying things I didn’t say. I just said 538 said that voter turnout in primary elections is meaningless. Of course Republicans will win in MAGA country.

 

[T.Lex]

What? Why are you saying I’m saying things I didn’t say. I just said 538 said that voter turnout in primary elections is meaningless. Of course Republicans will win in MAGA country.

We're seriously having communication problems this morning.

I was talking about Indiana primary/general elections. You brought up 538 observing no correlation between primary and general voters. I asked whether that was specific to Indiana, because I believe there is an identifiable trend here. I'm not saying 538 is completely wrong; I'm just saying that they might not be right about Indiana.

And MAGA country has only existed since 2016, technically. So we don't know what will happen in a new cycle. Since Indiana went blue in 2008, there's precedent for Indiana going that way.

 

[jamil]

We're seriously having communication problems this morning.

I was talking about Indiana primary/general elections. You brought up 538 observing no correlation between primary and general voters. I asked whether that was specific to Indiana, because I believe there is an identifiable trend here. I'm not saying 538 is completely wrong; I'm just saying that they might not be right about Indiana.

And MAGA country has only existed since 2016, technically. So we don't know what will happen in a new cycle. Since Indiana went blue in 2008, there's precedent for Indiana going that way.

I think you would have enough there to identify a coincidence.

 

[T.Lex]

I think you would have enough there to identify a coincidence.

2004, Bush was uncontested.

2000 Primary:
Republican - ~406k
Dem - ~293k

So, you'd think the Republican would win.

2000 General:
Republican (Bush) - ~1.2M
Dem (Gore) - ~900k.

Aaaand the Republican won.

1996 Primary:
Republican - ~516k
Dem (Clinton, the incumbent, was only candidate) - ~329k

1996 General:*
Republican (Dole) - ~1M
Dem - ~890k.

More Republican voters in the primary and the Republican won the General (although lost nationally).

* And that was with Perot getting ~225k.

Looks like the 1992 and earlier data isn't as available. So I'll stop there.

 

[BugI02]

INGO 2019 - JAMES MATTIS FOR PRESIDENT, MAD DOG YOLO 420, BRO IS HARDCORE BADASS

INGO 2020 - omg mattis is a nevertrumper rhino liberal

Well, Benedict Arnold was a respected member of the military, too - until, you know ... he made that fateful wrong turn

 

[foszoe]

Looks like Murkowski may move past Sessions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/04/trump-murkowski-campaign-mattis-302308

 

[jamil]

2004, Bush was uncontested.

2000 Primary:
Republican - ~406k
Dem - ~293k

So, you'd think the Republican would win.

2000 General:
Republican (Bush) - ~1.2M
Dem (Gore) - ~900k.

Aaaand the Republican won.

1996 Primary:
Republican - ~516k
Dem (Clinton, the incumbent, was only candidate) - ~329k

1996 General:*
Republican (Dole) - ~1M
Dem - ~890k.

More Republican voters in the primary and the Republican won the General (although lost nationally).

* And that was with Perot getting ~225k.

Looks like the 1992 and earlier data isn't as available. So I'll stop there.

This is like stock trading based on technical analysis.

 

[jamil]

Well, Benedict Arnold was a respected member of the military, too - until, you know ... he made that fateful wrong turn

So Mattis is a traitor?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Biden claims '10 to 15 percent' of Americans are 'just not very good people'

And this is where you lay down a spicy meme by saying one word...

"DESPITE..."

(Obviously not my opinion, just implying it of Biden for the laughs)

 

[BugI02]

So Mattis is a traitor?

My, my. We are certainly willing to adopt the hyperbole and lack of nuance, the we elsewhere condemn, when it suits us

The quote responded to was referencing/passive-aggressively criticizing part of INGO changing it's cumulative opinion of Mattis based on his being at odds with the president. Perhaps I should have used Judas as the example, although there is some evidence that Arnold was influenced by no higher ideal than money - so Mattis might have that in common

For me, the jury is still out. One explaination I could see is Mattis remains loyal to his beloved military and knows that troops being used in the manner proposed would be lose-lose and a ****ty stick indeed

 

[BugI02]

Biden claims '10 to 15 percent' of Americans are 'just not very good people'

And this is where you lay down a spicy meme by saying one word...

"DESPITE..."

(Obviously not my opinion, just implying it of Biden for the laughs)

Well, during Hillary's run it was 50% deplorable, so four years of Trump have improved the situation by 70 to 80%! Bonus!

 

[jamil]

My, my. We are certainly willing to adopt the hyperbole and lack of nuance, the we elsewhere condemn, when it suits us

The quote responded to was referencing/passive-aggressively criticizing part of INGO changing it's cumulative opinion of Mattis based on his being at odds with the president. Perhaps I should have used Judas as the example, although there is some evidence that Arnold was influenced by no higher ideal than money - so Mattis might have that in common

For me, the jury is still out. One explaination I could see is Mattis remains loyal to his beloved military and knows that troops being used in the manner proposed would be lose-lose and a ****ty stick indeed

You kinda added the whole Benedict Arnold thing. I think that made the question reasonable. Especially since you guys tend to throw out the term "traitor" often enough. That's not hyperbole to ask that question.

 

[printcraft]

Well, during Hillary's run it was 50% deplorable, so four years of Trump have improved the situation by 70 to 80%! Bonus!

Well... biden was probably saying something similar.

50% of Trumps supporters were deplorables according to hitlary. 63 million votes for Trump so roughly 32 million people were deplorable.

Total US population 328 million... 10% of that is 32 million... roughly same number of "bad" Americans according to biden.

 

[jamil]

Well... biden was probably saying something similar.

50% of Trumps supporters were deplorables according to hitlary. 63 million votes for Trump so roughly 32 million people were deplorable.

Total US population 328 million... 10% of that is 32 million... roughly same number of "bad" Americans according to biden.

So he's including children.

 

[printcraft]

So he's including children.

There is a missing 5% in there to make up the 15% top figure...

Besides certain kids are genetically predisposed to racism etc. It's only natural.

 

[jamil]

There is a missing 5% in there to make up the 15% top figure...

Besides certain kids are genetically predisposed to racism etc. It's only natural.

I kinda think this girl is in the 10-15%. She's just not cooperating.

 

[printcraft]

^^^^^^ "come on man, I thought you liked me."

 

[jamil]

^^^^^^ "come on man, I thought you liked me."