The Coming Crash in Ammunition Prices

[Hotdoger]

GUN WATCH: The Coming Crash in Ammunition Prices

 

[Birds Away]

Wishful thinking?

 

[Hotdoger]

Yea I think so Birds Away.

 

[churchmouse]

I did not read the article but if ammo prices are going to fall I am all for it.

 

[Snapdragon]

So all of that was based on a box of ammo being marked down a dollar and a half at Walmart?

 

[Hotdoger]

Related INGO thread:

https://www.indianagunowners.com/forums/ammunition-reloading/348412-ammo-shortage-letting-up.html

 

[Hotdoger]

http://i.imgur.com/Qv1GEmF.jpg

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

What goes up, must come down doesn't seem to always hold true with prices. I don't have much confidence that we'll see sub-$10 22LR bricks again but it'd be nice just to find them on the shelves again, at "reasonable" prices someday soon.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

"At the lowest, we might see .22 cartridges below $10 for 500."
I'll believe this when I see it. I don't think we will, but I hope I'm wrong! I have seen ammo supplies gradually increasing and prices coming down, but .22lr remains elusive, at least at prices I'm willing to pay right now.

 

[cobber]

What goes up, must come down doesn't seem to always hold true with prices. I don't have much confidence that we'll see sub-$10 22LR bricks again but it'd be nice just to find them on the shelves again, at "reasonable" prices someday soon.

Unless the status quo becomes the new normal. But it's hard to see the demand for .22 continuing this way much longer. The hoarders only have so many garages and storage units.

 

[Principal Skinr]

Whether prices get ridiculously low, or not, I think ammo of all kinds is clearly becoming more available. It makes me want to ask the tin-foils what happened to Obama buying up all the ammo.

The fact is, many underestimated how powerful demand from the private sector really was. When Americans think there's a real and serious threat to their gun rights, they buy guns and ammo...and they hoarded and stored the ammo. On top of that, with the new guns, many discovered shooting, whether through practice or the fast growing shooting sports. Pretty soon, they discovered that they had a stockpile of ammo and that they had spent lots of money, so they slowed down, and now supply is catching up and appears to be outpacing demand.

I'm not so sure ammo prices won't drop. Look at AR 15's. Rifles that would have commanded close to $1000 can be had now for close to $500. In fact, you can get a Palmetto Freedom rifle kit with a stainless barrel for about $450, if you shop sales carefully.

Of course, lower demand will depend of a stable market. If some nut commits another really bad massacre causing a strong political backlash against gun ownership, then well go right back to square 1.

I'm waiting to see what would happen if a massacre is stopped by a CCW holder. Of course, the media won't report it other than maybe locally.

 

[padawan]

Yea I think so Birds Away.

$10/brick.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Unless the status quo becomes the new normal. But it's hard to see the demand for .22 continuing this way much longer. The hoarders only have so many garages and storage units.

You'd think. I think the problem is that once one hoarder maxes out and steps out of the early-bird line, another is there to take his/her place. It's lasted longer months longer than I thought it would.

 

[Expat]

$10/brick.

You'd think. I think the problem is that once one hoarder maxes out and steps out of the early-bird line, another is there to take his/her place. It's lasted longer months longer than I thought it would.

I was pretty happy with my hoard going into this run on the market. I have only bought a couple of bricks in the last few years and those just sort of fell in my lap (one was free w/the purchase of some magpul sights from PSA, i was at the LGS when they unloaded the truck). But if they hit $10/brick. I will hit new levels of hoarding. So I agree with GFGT (per usual), there are lots of people waiting to start hoarding at different price levels that aren't currently in the market.

 

[Hotdoger]

+ ! Expat!

That's where I am at. Prices drops is the time to build inventory.

 

[ViperJock]

+ ! Expat!

That's where I am at. Prices drops is the time to build inventory.

LoL. Me too. This is why prices will never actually get that low. Once the panic buyers and flippers stop, the rest of us will keep the demand high enough to prevent a huge drop in price.

 

[pudly]

$10/brick.

Agreed. That is pre-Obama pricing. Even between scares, 4 cents or less was an excellent deal on bulk ammo. My best was 3 cent bulk when buying by the case.

One point that they touched on in the article that I don't think was sufficiently emphasized:

Ammunition suppliers started running their manufacturing plants day and night, adding additional shifts. Importers scoured the world markets, trying to buy everything they could to satisfy the insatiable demand.

The ammo companies really didn't invest in a lot of new facilities/equipment because they saw the risks of a long-term investments in what was likely a short-term change in demand. If prices should actually crash at some point, I'll be buying hard because I don't see it lasting. Both US manufacturers and importers will be in a good position to scale back their production to avoid losing money.

 

[ole hombre]

This is something I have been anticipating--lower ammo prices. All "commodities" go through ups and downs in cost. I think prices for ammo will retract somewhat but would not expect a crash, especially with the deteriorating political environment we live in these days. The next political "crisis" will see them shoot up again in any case, IMO.

 

[ljk]

fishers walmart has removed the ammo purchase limits EXCEPT 22LR(if they every get any for real)

 

[DRob]

I believe the price increases are a product of supply and demand. We constantly crow about Obama being the best gun salesman ever but seem to forget that gun sales equate to ammo sales. If you bought your first .22 three years ago, and "cheap" ammo was priced at $8 a box, that is your "normal". If it was next to impossible to find, that's the market you know. If you compare every active INGO member to all the above mentioned people, we are invisible and the fact that some of us remember buying a box of .22 shorts for a quarter is no more than an entertaining memory.

And, by the way, if you're buying large quantities and shooting 'em, you are not a hoarder.