Tariffs on Chinese goods?

[JettaKnight]

What makes you think that? They have a million people in reeducation camps, they are creating social scores for every citizen...totalitarianism means total control, no limit to authority, every aspect of public and private life. There will be no subject allowed on any ladder rung that the state does not approve. You will work in a sweatshop if the state wants you to work in a sweatshop...at the end of China Dream it will be everyone else on the planet working for their ChiCom overlords.

Just curious - have you ever been there in the last decade?

 

[JettaKnight]

I'm curious - because I truly don't know the answer to this - has that ever worked?

[video=youtube;uhiCFdWeQfA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA[/video]

 

[Thor]

Just curious - have you ever been there in the last decade?

That question is irrelevant.

 

[T.Lex]

Posting this here, only because there isn't really a "China is the real enemy" thread.

This is an example of how China is winning Africa.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46467098

Senegal has built and opened a Museum of Black Civilizations. Which is a pretty cool thing IMHO.

But....

After decades of inaction, construction was finally made possible after a $34m (£27m) Chinese investment.

For a pittance, China earned a ton of good will.

 

[JettaKnight]

That question is irrelevant.

You seem to know everything that's happening in China, I just want to know how valid it is.


I certainly wouldn't consider a life-long civilian to be an expert on the military.

 

[JettaKnight]

Posting this here, only because there isn't really a "China is the real enemy" thread.

This is an example of how China is winning Africa.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46467098

Senegal has built and opened a Museum of Black Civilizations. Which is a pretty cool thing IMHO.

But....


For a pittance, China earned a ton of good will.

$43M? Can you imagine the uproar if that money came from America? Every congressman up for election would be stumping on that issue.

China's able to look at the big picture and plan more than two years in advance.

 

[T.Lex]

$43M? Can you imagine the uproar if that money came from America? Every congressman up for election would be stumping on that issue.

China's able to look at the big picture and plan more than two years in advance.

What I lament is that there could easily have been a matching-grant type thing, in which USian celebrities/athletes cobble together a mere $20M and the US aid agencies match it for $40M.

 

[HoughMade]

Something like $15 billion (with a "B") in foreign aid to 47 African nations last time I checked. On one side, $40 million is a drop in the bucket, so why not? On the other side, if we can't buy good vibes for $15 billion, why would we believe we can buy it for $40 million?

 

[Thor]

You seem to know everything that's happening in China, I just want to know how valid it is.

I certainly wouldn't consider a life-long civilian to be an expert on the military.

Life long military still working for the puzzle palace as a contractor, going on 40yrs now. You?

 

[BugI02]

View attachment 72600

 

[T.Lex]

Something like $15 billion (with a "B") in foreign aid to 47 African nations last time I checked. On one side, $40 million is a drop in the bucket, so why not? On the other side, if we can't buy good vibes for $15 billion, why would we believe we can buy it for $40 million?

I'm curious what constitutes the aid. I'm not arguing the numbers, just wondering how much of it is to prop up our preferred authoritarian in some of those nations.

Moreover, that $40M is truly a drop in the bucket for the Chinese, yet they were able to make it happen.

Depending on how you count, because China offers low or no-interest loans, with few strings attached for now, China's investment in Africa just about matches ours.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/31/chinese-aid-and-investment-are-good-for-africa/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...heres-what-that-means/?utm_term=.a970f0f0dd21

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...kes-old-order-western-donors-surge-aid-africa

In a competition, it isn't always about how much you spend - it is how you spend it. China's strategy involves spending money on concrete things (literally) and infrastructure. I'm not sure we've pursued the same strategy. Our seems to be more ephemeral.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Our we could spend much more (4.5x) than that helping them to survive and get bumpkus! Oh, wait, we did...

http://www.publishwhatyoufund.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/USFA-Senegal-1.pdf

In FY ‘16, the US spent $189m on aid to
Senegal.10 Of that, $51.2m was on agriculture.
Although it is the largest donor in the country,
Senegal represents just 0.4% of overall US
foreign assistance spending, making it the
34th most funded country by the US.11

 

[JettaKnight]

Life long military still working for the puzzle palace as a contractor, going on 40yrs now. You?

Oh, I know that about you. That's kind of my point. I would absolutely trust what you had to say about the DoD; foreign policy and economics, not so much. In my limited dealing with Chinese manufacturers and travel there, I learned that I don't know nearly as much as I think I do about the Chinese, and neither do most Americans.


On the way home I was thinking - "OK what would happen if we severely reduced our trade with China?" I mean, that's what you're proposing, correct?

My thought is:

1. Our economy would tank in every sector as the cost of raw material skyrockets.
2. China would suffer, but would find other trading partners in emerging companies looking for cheap goods.
3. Our current carrots and sticks we use with China would be feckless.
4. Many of our trading partners would go away, because hey, who wants a mercurial, self interest at all cost trading partner?
5. Chinese investment dries up, now we have to repay a big debt.
6. China's military might and influence grows, whereas the US shrivels.

How do you recover from that?

Where am I wrong in my thought process?

 

[hoosierdoc]

No home for you!

https://hotair.com/archives/2018/12/06/hmmm-canada-arrests-china-telecom-exec-will-extradite-us/

interesting that Canada helped us enforce Iran sanctions and arrested a prominent Chinese national for us

 

[Thor]

No home for you!

https://hotair.com/archives/2018/12/06/hmmm-canada-arrests-china-telecom-exec-will-extradite-us/

interesting that Canada helped us enforce Iran sanctions and arrested a prominent Chinese national for us

The arrest is to attempt to compel Huawei to appear in court and answer for dealing with Iran. All profitable Chinese companies are tied to the Communist Party and/or the People's Liberation Army so by extension this a challenge to the ChiComs as a whole. I would expect them to retaliate in kind. Also expect any trade discussions to end.

 

[Thor]

Oh, I know that about you. That's kind of my point. I would absolutely trust what you had to say about the DoD; foreign policy and economics, not so much. In my limited dealing with Chinese manufacturers and travel there, I learned that I don't know nearly as much as I think I do about the Chinese, and neither do most Americans.

So, you apparently have some direct immediate profit motive here. If you do business with the ChiComs and travel to ChiComland I may not have much respect for your opinions on ChiCom policy.

On the way home I was thinking - "OK what would happen if we severely reduced our trade with China?" I mean, that's what you're proposing, correct?

Correct.

My thought is:

1. Our economy would tank in every sector as the cost of raw material skyrockets. - Speculation, some companies would obviously be impacted...like those doing business with the ChiComs.
2. China would suffer, but would find other trading partners in emerging companies looking for cheap goods. - They would suffer way more than we would, no one could replace our market.
3. Our current carrots and sticks we use with China would be feckless. - Like the ChiComs care what we think.
4. Many of our trading partners would go away, because hey, who wants a mercurial, self interest at all cost trading partner? - That's silly. If the world sees that what we used to do with the ChiComs we're now going to do with them they'll come running to provide those products and services.
5. Chinese investment dries up, now we have to repay a big debt. - As I said before, it was a mistake to let an ENEMY become a major player in our economy, doing more of the same is bad business.
6. China's military might and influence grows, whereas the US shrivels. - Equally silly. As it stands now we are funding their military and dreams of world domination.

.

 

[JettaKnight]

I listened to Bolton on NPR's ME today. I am really glad that the Trump adm. is taking IP infringement seriously. I actually wish the EU would, but they're too busy fining Google and determining what can be called Cheddar cheese.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

On the way home I was thinking - "OK what would happen if we severely reduced our trade with China?" I mean, that's what you're proposing, correct?

My thought is:

1. Our economy would tank in every sector as the cost of raw material skyrockets.
2. China would suffer, but would find other trading partners in emerging companies looking for cheap goods.
3. Our current carrots and sticks we use with China would be feckless.
4. Many of our trading partners would go away, because hey, who wants a mercurial, self interest at all cost trading partner?
5. Chinese investment dries up, now we have to repay a big debt.
6. China's military might and influence grows, whereas the US shrivels.

How do you recover from that?

Where am I wrong in my thought process?

The Chinese are not as powerful as you are portraying them and we are winning this trade/tariff tiff. I think everyone discussing or reading along in this thread needs to read this article.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/mar...-strike-at-trump-and-missed-the-mark-entirely

Key points and takeaways:
The U.S. economy is booming, while China has just posted its weakest growth in nearly a decade.
The Chinese Communist Party controls the economy through state ownership and massive subsidies in dozens of sectors where U.S. goods and services can't compete fairly.
Anything we tariff from China can be had elsewhere or made here, the same cannot be said for soybeans and other foodstuffs (which the Chinese just learned the hard way).

My conclusion: The US will win because we control the food supply and we have idle industrial capacity that can take up the slack from anything that gets tariffed. Manufacturing is easier to expand than the food supply. Manufacturing here is stimulative for the economy even if it leads to marginally more expensive products because the money is being circulated in our economy rather than drained from it.

 

[Thor]

The Chinese are not as powerful as you are portraying them and we are winning this trade/tariff tiff.
Key points and takeaways:
The U.S. economy is booming, while China has just posted its weakest growth in nearly a decade.
The Chinese Communist Party controls the economy through state ownership and massive subsidies in dozens of sectors where U.S. goods and services can't compete fairly.
Anything we tariff from China can be had elsewhere or made here, the same cannot be said for soybeans and other foodstuffs (which the Chinese just learned the hard way).

My conclusion: The US will win because we control the food supply and we have idle industrial capacity that can take up the slack from anything that gets tariffed. Manufacturing is easier to expand than the food supply. Manufacturing here is stimulative for the economy even if it leads to marginally more expensive products because the money is being circulated in our economy rather than drained from it.

 

[BugI02]

Oh, I know that about you. That's kind of my point. I would absolutely trust what you had to say about the DoD; foreign policy and economics, not so much. In my limited dealing with Chinese manufacturers and travel there, I learned that I don't know nearly as much as I think I do about the Chinese, and neither do most Americans.


On the way home I was thinking - "OK what would happen if we severely reduced our trade with China?" I mean, that's what you're proposing, correct?

My thought is:

1. Our economy would tank in every sector as the cost of raw material skyrockets.
2. China would suffer, but would find other trading partners in emerging companies looking for cheap goods.
3. Our current carrots and sticks we use with China would be feckless.
4. Many of our trading partners would go away, because hey, who wants a mercurial, self interest at all cost trading partner?
5. Chinese investment dries up, now we have to repay a big debt.
6. China's military might and influence grows, whereas the US shrivels.

How do you recover from that?

Where am I wrong in my thought process?

Following is a list of the top twenty consumer markets from the wiki (sorted by their Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) which represents consumer spending in nominal terms)

View attachment 72614

Not seeing too many potential friends of the ChiComs. The EU is an aggregate, but you need all of it plus all of Japan and India to equal what they lose if the US stops doing business with them. We give them the same choice we give people on doing business with Iran - they can do business with the US or China but not both

It's the age-old problem of everybody is happy with the status quo because they are making out like bandits, parasites sucking on the much stronger US economy. It has to stop sometime, if nothing else then by the death of the host. The way the ChiComs prefer to do business, I don't see other advanced countries jumping at the chance to be the chumps we are for them

The hardest part would be countering the quislings in our own government and the people who would sell their birthright for a slightly cheaper mess-o-iPottage