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  • smokingman

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/treasury-scarcity-to-grow-as-fed-buys-90-of-new-bonds.html

    Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds

    Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.
    The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.



    Rest at the link.


    In short this is exactly what I have been talking about.Direct monetization of the debt.This will create inflation.It is very detrimental to the value of the dollar,and fully expect those who hold notes to try and unload them.Why would you hold an asset that was being deliberately devalued?As said earlier in this thread,we are pretty much in a full blown currency war.Most countries on earth are in a race to devalue to maintain trade.It is very much like the protectionism of the great depression,and has nearly the same effect.
     
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    smokingman

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    QE Backfires as Dividend Quest Usurps Growth: Cutting Research - Bloomberg

    Worldwide quantitative easing may be making investors richer rather than encouraging business investment, according to Citigroup Inc. (C)

    “They’ll take a bigger dividend over a new factory, anytime,” Buckland wrote. “Policy makers may succeed in forcing capital into equities, but from their perspective, it is the wrong kind of capital: income seeking rather than growth seeking.”

    Rest at the source.One thing is does not mention is all the cash sitting at the Federal Reserve as excess reserves.Money borrowed by the TBTF banks at 0 interest,earning around 3% for doing nothing.How would you like to borrow money at 0% and deposit at your bank and earn 3%?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-01/chart-keeps-ben-bernanke-night
    What changed in the last 30 days? Did the world just wake up to the idea that the only way out of this quagmire is a twisted currency war that appears to have re-ignited thanks to Abe's efforts? Something appears to have snapped in the American psyche as the last 30 days have seen the largest physical gold sales on record.

    2j3ptoo.png



    It is better than the alternative though,which will happen soon enough.Those excess reserves could already be in the public sector adding to an already over flowing capital surplus driving further inflation.
     

    smokingman

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    Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds - Bloomberg

    Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds

    Even as U.S. government debt swells to more than $16 trillion, Treasuries and other dollar fixed- income securities will be in short supply next year as the Federal Reserve soaks up almost all the net new bonds.
    The government will reduce net sales by $250 billion from the $1.2 trillion of bills, notes and bonds issued in fiscal 2012 ended Sept. 30, a survey of 18 primary dealers found. At the same time, the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.



    Rest at the link.


    In short this is exactly what I have been talking about.Direct monetization of the debt.This will create inflation.It is very detrimental to the value of the dollar,and fully expect those who hold notes to try and unload them.Why would you hold an asset that was being deliberately devalued?As said earlier in this thread,we are pretty much in a full blown currency war.Most countries on earth are in a race to devalue to maintain trade.It is very much like the protectionism of the great depression,and has nearly the same effect.

    ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
    Time For Bernanke To Retract His Sworn Testimony To Congress


    Three months ago, as part of our ongoing explanation of what happens next to the Fed's balance sheet (which is now established as official canon in advance of the December 12th FOMC, when Bernanke will effectively announce QE4 consisting of $40 billion in MBS and $45 billion in unsterilized TSY purchases as we predicted the day QE3 was announced), we said that "the Fed will continue increasing its 10 Yr equivalents by roughly 12% (of the total market) per year, for at least the next 3 years, at which point it will own 60% of the entire Treasury market. It means that the Fed will monetize all gross long-term issuance every year for the next 3 years." Most looked at the bold sentence without it registering just what it means. Perhaps, now that the "serious" media has finally taken on the topic of applying a calculator to the one driver of all marginal risk demand, it will register a little better: in a Bloomberg story titled, appropriately enough "Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds" we read that "the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co." Actually that's incorrect and it is more like 100%. What is however 100% correct is what the bolded means in plain language: it is now accepted that the Fed will outright monetize all gross US issuance. Let us repeat this sentence for those who just had flashbacks to Adam Fergusson's "When money dies." The Fed is now monetizing practically all net new debt. So what did the Chairman say about this absolutely certain eventuality back in 2009 to Congress...
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=n6qo2S84r5w
     

    GodFearinGunTotin

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    Mitchell
    The Baltic dry index plunged by 8% over night on top of the 3.9% it lost yesterday.It is the largest single drop since 2008.The BDI is now down 61.8% in the last 52 weeks.

    Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008 | ZeroHedge

    Bullish for holiday sales lol?

    OK. Clue me in a little. I take it, this is an indicator of economic health based on trade. Is it focused on China/US trade? Since what will be sold for Christmas this year has already been shipped, this would seem to indicate that future sales are expected to soften, right?

    This seems to correlate with what I'm seeing at work. For the first time since 2009/2010, plants are taking down weeks before and after our Christmas shutdown period. Seems we're seeing softer sales or expecting them too. (Though I'll have to admit I don't have our current numbers memorized).
     

    smokingman

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    12/12/2012
    The Federal Reserve just announced QE4 an additional 45 billion per month for a total of 85 billion a month in additional asset purchases.Unlike operation twist this is straight printing money.Twist used maturing treasuries to buy more,now they are out right purchasing over 90% of all treasuries issued.

    I watched the 45 minute press conference.All markets down,dollar down.I will post a link when one hits the wire.
     

    smokingman

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    OK. Clue me in a little. I take it, this is an indicator of economic health based on trade. Is it focused on China/US trade? Since what will be sold for Christmas this year has already been shipped, this would seem to indicate that future sales are expected to soften, right?

    This seems to correlate with what I'm seeing at work. For the first time since 2009/2010, plants are taking down weeks before and after our Christmas shutdown period. Seems we're seeing softer sales or expecting them too. (Though I'll have to admit I don't have our current numbers memorized).
    It is the world wide index for the shipments of dry goods.Raw materials.Iron,coal,wheat,anything that can be shipped dry(not container shipping that is different).It means the demand for raw materials is down incredibly and has been a pretty good leading indicator of where we are going.Some think it is not as reliable as it used to be,but if you take inflation out of growth figures and sales it is still very reliable to me.

    In short if the BDI is down,the demand for raw materials is down.

    Any time the index is below 1200 shipping companies are actually losing money(Just crew and fuel cost more than they are making),which is why so many have failed this year. Two big failures this year where Stephenson Clark(The oldest shipping company in the world at the time of failure)and Maersk Lines(largest container shipping company in the world) both filed for bankruptcy liquidation this year.
     

    smokingman

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    12/12/2012
    The Federal Reserve just announced QE4 an additional 45 billion per month for a total of 85 billion a month in additional asset purchases.Unlike operation twist this is straight printing money.Twist used maturing treasuries to buy more,now they are out right purchasing over 90% of all treasuries issued.

    I watched the 45 minute press conference.All markets down,dollar down.I will post a link when one hits the wire.
    QE4 Is Here: Bernanke Delivers $85B-A-Month Until Unemployment Falls Below 6.5% - Forbes

    QE4 Is Here: Bernanke Delivers $85B-A-Month Until Unemployment Falls Below 6.5%

    Ben Bernanke continues to make history at the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the FOMC announced
    more quantitative easing at a rate of $85 billion a month for an extended period of time. The Bernanke Fed has also modified its guidance, noting its ultra-accommodative stance will remain in place until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5% and inflation projections remain no more than half a percentage point above 2% two years out.
    QE4 is here. Only a few months after announcing what had been dubbed QE3, an open-ended $40 billion a month program to buy up mortgage backed securities (MBS), the FOMC decided to extend its asset purchases in 2013 as Operation Twist expires.
     

    smokingman

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    12/13/2012
    http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/13/news/economy/federal-reserve-us-dollar/index.html?iid=HP_LN
    What is a few more trillion here or there.So we now have QE1.5 QE3,QE4,and currency swaps active.

    The reality is just like what we saw from the one time partial audit of the Federal Reserve.On the surface it looked like banks where bailed out with the 700 billion dollar tarp fund,but the reality was the FED lent over 16 trillion to them privately during the same period.

    Now we have 85 billion per month publicly being printed.Wonder what the real figure of what is being done behind closed doors is?

    "The so-called dollar liquidity swaps are basically credit lines to foreign central banks. It's a tool that has been extended and revived several times, to lower the cost of short-term borrowing, particularly for European banks, and keep the global economy free of a credit crunch as in 2008.
    The Fed announced Thursday that it will extend the program through February 2014. Previously, it was set to remain in place until February 2013."
     

    lucky4034

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    For anyone who is unsure why all of this is important.... Ron Paul wrote a small book (only a couple hundred pages) that explains why a fiat currency is dangerous and explains the history of all the different US currencies that existed and failed since we became independent from England.

    Wikipedia has a couple of early books that Dr. Paul wrote early in his career and most of them are on our currency problems.

    Paul, Ron; Lehrman, Lewis; U.S. Gold Commission (September 1982) (PDF). http://www.mises.org/books/caseforgold.pdf. Washington, DC: Cato Institute (2d ed. Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2007). ISBN 0-932790-31-3. OCLC 8763972. Retrieved 2007-07-30

    For those too lazy to read... the idea is that, printing money increases supply to demand ratios and works as long as those using the fiat currency have faith in the imaginary value. Sure, inflation is the result, but inflation is ok as long as everyone trusts exists. However, once that currency is created to the point that the public realizes its worthless... value plummets and that currency no longer has any value.

    This has happened countless times through history all over the world. Its even happened in this country on smaller scales dozens of times in our short history and the result has always been the same. Those who create the currency couldn't keep the faith in it for very long and it because worthless.

    To the credit of those who have converted the US dollar from a real currency backed by gold into a fiat currency... first off... screw you for creating this mess, but secondly... kudos to you for being able to keep this hoax alive this long!!! No doubt, these bankers/politicians are absolutely genius! They were very wise to steal most of the worlds gold, separate the US dollar from it and expand the currency with credit to make themselves FILTHY RICH and powerful and then right before the dollar began to lose its steam... they had the foresight to convince the world to attach it to petroleum!

    I'm curious to see what is going to happen now? Where will they go if the Arab League and Opec wake up and lose faith in the US Dollar?

    Will the dollar collapse? (I think so)

    Or will the Federal Reserve come up with another scheme to keep this monopoly money afloat? If they do... America thrives... if they don't... America dies! (at least the way we all know it now dies)
     

    smokingman

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    lucky4034

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    Thats an awesome video...

    Its hard to predict how and where the end of this currency is going to play out or what the repercussions will be....
     

    smokingman

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    Front page of Bloomberg if you can believe that.
    Silver Vaults Stuffed Mean Prices Rising 29% in (2013)*not sure why it did not copy the whole text
    "The metal advanced 12 percent to $31.09 this year, compared with a 6.6 percent gain for gold and 13 percent rise for platinum. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities was little changed and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities jumped 14 percent. Treasuries returned 1.8 percent, according to a Bank of America Corp. index. “There’s going to be another big crash, we are really near it now,” said Chin Kuan Yew, a businessman and Silver Bullion customer who sold all his properties, including his condominium, to buy more metal. “You have on the one hand the U.S. printing money and the European Union is on the brink of collapse.”

    We will see how long that article lasts on the front page,my guess is not very long.
     

    smokingman

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    Baltic Dry Index 720 61.8% down in the last 52 weeks.

    Chaebol Founder Dismantles Life

    "The Baltic Dry Index (BDIY), which tracks dry-bulk shipping rates, has plunged more than 90 percent from its record close in May 2008.

    Kang Duk Soo spent eleven years turning a failing ship-engine maker into a conglomerate with $23 billion in assets. He is now dismantling it.
    His STX Group put the controlling stake of its shipping unit up for sale last week as it tries to raise 2.5 trillion won ($2.3 billion) to pay off debt. It’s already spent nearly a year looking for a buyer for its affiliated offshore-vessel maker.



    Other shipping and shipbuilding groups have also suffered in the market slump. Ship operator Korea Line Corp. has been in court receivership for almost two years as new investors are sought. Ulsan, South Korea-based Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world’s largest shipbuilder, has offered early-retirement programs demand withers."
     

    teddy12b

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    After all the "news" we've been getting lately I honestly can't believe that we're looking at silver spot prices under $30 per ounce today. That just blows my mind and I can't imagine that there will be another buying oportunity like what we've got right now.
     
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