Stocks, Gold, Silver, and the printing press.

[ZombieApocolypse]

I have a fun exercise for you.

Take GDP yearly figures from 1980 to current.Subtract out official yearly inflation figures.How many years has our GDP actually grown in the last 32 years?

For example.Last year.
2011 2.1% is the official GDP growth figure.
2011 3.4% is the official inflation figure.

With out inflation our GDP growth would have been a negative 1.3%

This is why very few see any kind of recovery.There is not one.Inflation is not growth,and the average person on the street can feel the difference between real growth and inflation derived growth.

Sadly QE to infinity and beyond is just boosting inflation at an ever rapid pace.Sure GDP will go up,but the reality is we are losing ground.Another good example is the Consumer price index.When it goes up the mainstream media cheers as consumers are spending more.The reality is they are spending more due to inflation,not a sudden uptick in non discretionary spending.Food and energy may not be counted in the official inflation rate,but food and energy account for around half of the Consumer price index.

My brain is to fried to make the chart.Here are the figures lol.
GDP Growth Rates, List by Country
Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2012, Annual and Monthly Tables - US Inflation Calculator

Without actually doing the work here, is it safe to assume inflation is and has been hiding our sad gdp growth?

 

[smokingman]

Without actually doing the work here, is it safe to assume inflation is and has been hiding our sad gdp growth?

Not quite.Inflation has been hiding the fact our GDP has been negative for quite some time.In other words 0 growth.

 

[rambone]

Sure,but they do not make it easy to read.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/time.series/ap/ap.item

That gives you the food item and the food item number.Then you take the number and manually look it up on each AP chart(year/month).
It is a ton of work to sift through it all.
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/time.series/ap/

You are looking through the "foot notes".

Hmm. I tried following your work and have been unsuccessful on my first 4 attempts. Actually I'm not even seeing the BLS data being current through 2012 M10.

Then there is this table...
Average retail food and energy prices, U.S. city average and Midwest region

 

[smokingman]

Hmm. I tried following your work and have been unsuccessful on my first 4 attempts. Actually I'm not even seeing the BLS data being current through 2012 M10.

Then there is this table...
Average retail food and energy prices, U.S. city average and Midwest region

Start here ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/time.series/

Go to CU.
From there click CU USfoodbeverage.The data series goes from 1967-Oct 12,2012.

See the foot note numbers? You can enter those in search(which currently looks to be down)and get the actual data.Footnote text and data is currently down, I just tried.So currently all you can do is get the item,the date,and footnote number to enter into the search when it is up.

The chart you posted.Did you notice how 1/3 of the data points are just blank? It is also for the Midwest only.The figures I am trying to show you are national averages.I wonder if your missing data is related to the text data server being down?One last thing.The data points I am giving are the RAW data before the BLS does seasonal adjustments.That is also a huge difference to your chart.Those are "adjusted" figures.

Here is a link to the official chart of consumer prices(NOT seasonally adjusted prices) since January 2002-current..Current to 10/24/2012
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?data_tool=XGtable

 

[smokingman]

Earning season is in full swing.So how about some humor from the mainstream media?
CNN on the 3% drop in earnings(average of companies that have already reported).
3 scariest things about this disappointing earnings season - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blog Term Sheet
Or Bloomberg on how a 3% drop in average earnings is actually better than estimated.
U.S. Stocks Advance on Better-Than-Estimated Earnings - Bloomberg
Bloomberg must have a slow connection,it claims stocks are up when they are in fact down.
Both articles are from today 10/25/2012

 

[ATOMonkey]

Things are good because they're not as bad as we thought they'd be! Brilliant!!!

 

[EvilBlackGun]

"i It's ALL lies !"

@ first this thread attracted me just for the linked-mention of silver - gold - currency. And the punctuation was kind of sucky. But the more I got into it, the more I could see that it is a direct indicator for me of the prices I ask and give for my groceries, gas, guns, etc. This is now the first topic I'll search when I log on. HIHB : hell in a hand-basket. With this thread available there is no need to fear zombies. Read & heed. EBG.

Things are good because they're not as bad as we thought they'd be! Brilliant!!!

 

[smokingman]

@ first this thread attracted me just for the linked-mention of silver - gold - currency. And the punctuation was kind of sucky. But the more I got into it, the more I could see that it is a direct indicator for me of the prices I ask and give for my groceries, gas, guns, etc. This is now the first topic I'll search when I log on. HIHB : hell in a hand-basket. With this thread available there is no need to fear zombies. Read & heed. EBG.

No Pressure lol.Punctuation,spelling,paragraphs and the English language in general I find challenging.The rules never did make much sense to me.I am good with data,forming larger pictures,spotting trends,and discrepancies in information.I have an analytical mind.
If presented with information that does not fit the data given I find myself driven to find out why.If the data does not fit within the trend why did it change.I am also a fan of history and sociology.What drives people?What drives governments?How far have we really come as a species?Those are the kind of questions that lead me to write this thread

Some of you know I was a broker.I saw this mess unfolding before it was mainstream news.The collapse in the real estate market,lending,and in the shadow banking systems was epic.It led to the visible fall in stock indexes.

As bad as it was, it was just a correction.Instead of letting natural forces play out in an over leveraged,indebted,and wreck less market the government and Federal reserve decided to prop up the burning house.In doing so they used your retirement,your labor,and your life as sticks nailed onto the side of that house.We rely on currency to transact most of our daily life.

We are in much more trouble than I have stated in this thread.I know why did I hold back lol?I held back in the hope that a warning would be heard and listened to rather than an alarm.It is not just our currency at risk,but our very way of life.Look at Greece.A sovereign country run by unelected bankers.It is spreading as well.Soon Spain will be run by the banks.In historical terms democracy has failed the bankers.

Democracy was spread because one debtor(a king)was less liable to repay a loan than a body of citizens.The next stage is to just run countries by the lenders themselves.It is already happening,and we will not be immune.The Federal Reserve has been given more and more power,not less as this crisis has drug on.They already own more of our debt than any foreign country.The power the bankers already have is beyond politics.Our government could not function at this point with out the free money from the FED(buying treasuries to fund it).

It is a dark time in our Republic.The best form of government to stop exactly what is happening.A return to our republic is the only way we will avoid forever being a banker run state.This is my larger fear.More pressing than even a collapse or devaluation of our currency.That we lose our republic to bankers,and it is already happening.

As always.Prep.


*In today's news
Today the University of Michigan released consumer confidence numbers.Americans where moderately less confident than expected.
Just to really illustrate how propaganda works lets compare consumer confidence with business confidence.

The red line represents business expectations,the green consumers.

Here is an article about the value of labor(priced in gold). At no time in history has your labor been worth less on any scale(global or Continental United States).
An Hour Of Your Time Has Never Been Worth Less | ZeroHedge

 

[EvilBlackGun]

I know you are not a woman ...

"But Damn the punctuation ... go for it, Baby!" EBG

 

[smokingman]

October 13,2010
JPMorgan beats all earnings estimates(with this little note "The provision for credit losses, the funds set aside for the allowance of bad loans, was reduced to was $3.2 billion, down 67% from a year ago."So there actual "profit" was 1.2 billion...and even that is doubtful.
DOW 11096 (+75)
Gold $1374.5(+4)
Silver $24.04(+.78)
Everything is up.Including staples we need.Corn is up 15% in the last 6 days.
Rally likely with very few down days now that the "banks" are in the clear until the next fed meeting.

This while the wheels come off.
Just curious if anyone else has put any thought into the huge disconnect between reality and what we are seeing?If I can figure this out and understand why it is happening anyone can.I see just an out right destruction of the middle class in the USA.It is deliberate and obvious.Plan well.

US Comptroller of the currency finally has something to say about the practice of lowering loan reserves to show profit at the end of every quarter.They should have put a stop to the practice three years ago.
"

The U.S. could stop banks from boosting their earnings by cutting back on reserves held against future loan losses, a top bank regulator said Monday, arguing that the economy remains too rocky for financial institutions to lower their cushions.

Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry has been warning for several months about the practice of bank-reserve releases, which occur when banks add less to their loan-loss reserves than they write off for uncollectible loans. The difference has bolstered banking profits in recent quarters.

Mr. Curry repeated his criticism in a speech before a group of bank risk managers in Dallas, citing the potential for future losses in residential and commercial real estate.

"I remain very concerned that too many institutions are continuing to reduce provisions solely to boost earnings," Mr. Curry said.

"We are ready to take action if and when it is needed," he said.

Regulators are concerned banks will suffer more losses from borrowers who took out home-equity loans from 2004 to 2008, as the housing bubble grew and then burst, Mr. Curry said. Most of those loans allowed borrowers to make only interest payments for seven to 10 years. When that period ends, some borrowers are unlikely to be able to meet monthly payments that are increased to include principal. And many likely won't be able to refinance.
​

U.S. Comptroller Warns on Banks' Loan-Loss Reserves - WSJ.com

10/30/2012




​

 

[smokingman]

I do not know what to say.I am beyond words on this one.
Front page of Bloomberg news.

Rise in U.S. Unemployment a Sign of Growing Worker Confidence



Rise in U.S. Unemployment a Sign of Growing Worker Confidence - Bloomberg

When spreading propaganda it is best to use multiple sources.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/02/news/economy/unemployment-rate/index.html
The good news in the rising jobless rate

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/11/02/good-news-the-unemployment-rate-rose/

Good News! The Unemployment Rate Rose

 

[ZombieApocolypse]

I do not know what to say.I am beyond words on this one.
Front page of Bloomberg news.

Rise in U.S. Unemployment a Sign of Growing Worker Confidence



Rise in U.S. Unemployment a Sign of Growing Worker Confidence - Bloomberg

When spreading propaganda it is best to use multiple sources.
The good news in the rising unemployment rate - Nov. 2, 2012
The good news in the rising jobless rate

Good News! The Unemployment Rate Rose - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Good News! The Unemployment Rate Rose

That just hurt my brain .... dare i even read those?

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Is it any wonder Obama got elected and Romney didn't wade into this stuff?

This is scary stuff and the public won't believe/understand it as long as they're comfortable in their everyday lives.

 

[ATOMonkey]

Ahhh.... More "Bad stuff is actually Good Stuff!!! " News...

Makes me all warm and tingly inside. I think I'll go buy a couple cars and 5 or 6 TVs.

If anyone lends me money, it's their own damn fault.

 

[ThrottleJockey]

But, but, b-b-b-but they told me there was no inflation! You mean the standard 4% annual doesn't apply any longer?

 

[smokingman]

The Federal Reserve today decided the international Basel III agreement would be to difficult for the banks,and delayed it indefinatly.This is after it agreed to Basel III along with every central bank of the G20.

"The delay comes as Wayne Byrnes, the head of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, earlier this week reportedly said that the Basel III bank capital rules are critical to nursing the international financial system back to health and that more is needed."

Fed delays Basel III bank capital buffer rules - MarketWatch

Link to the Federal Reserve press link,text follows.
FRB: Press Release--Agencies provide guidance on regulatory capital rulemakings--November 9, 2012


The U.S. federal banking agencies issued three notices of proposed rulemaking in June that would revise and replace the current regulatory capital rules. The proposals suggested an effective date of January 1, 2013. Many industry participants have expressed concern that they may be subject to a final regulatory capital rule on January 1, 2013, without sufficient time to understand the rule or to make necessary systems changes. In light of the volume of comments received and the wide range of views expressed during the comment period, the agencies do not expect that any of the proposed rules would become effective on January 1, 2013. As members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the U.S. agencies take seriously our internationally agreed timing commitments regarding the implementation of Basel III and are working as expeditiously as possible to complete the rulemaking process. As with any rule, the agencies will take operational and other considerations into account when determining appropriate implementation dates and associated transition periods.



Banks:"Capitol,we do not need any reserves!We can just borrow funds from the FED window at 0 interest if we need money!When is that helicopter supposed to get here Jamie?"

Just for those who actually care.You bank is required to keep a maximum of 10% of your money on deposit in cash.The rest they can use as they see fit.

Reserve requirements currently are assessed on the depository institution's net transaction accounts (mostly checking accounts). Depository institutions must also regularly submit reports of their deposits and other reservable liabilities. For net transaction accounts in 2013, the first $12.4 million, up from $11.5 million in 2012, will be exempt from reserve requirements. A 3 percent reserve ratio will be assessed on net transaction accounts over $12.4 million up to and including $79.5 million, up from $71.0 million in 2012. A 10 percent reserve ratio will be assessed on net transaction accounts in excess of $79.5 million.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121025a.htm

 

[ThrottleJockey]

T..........................


Banks:"Capitol,we do not need any reserves!We can just borrow funds from the FED window at 0 interest if we need money!When is that helicopter supposed to get here Jamie?"

Just for those who actually care.You bank is required to keep a maximum of 10% of your money on deposit in cash.The rest they can use as they see fit.

Reserve requirements currently are assessed on the depository institution's net transaction accounts (mostly checking accounts). Depository institutions must also regularly submit reports of their deposits and other reservable liabilities. For net transaction accounts in 2013, the first $12.4 million, up from $11.5 million in 2012, will be exempt from reserve requirements. A 3 percent reserve ratio will be assessed on net transaction accounts over $12.4 million up to and including $79.5 million, up from $71.0 million in 2012. A 10 percent reserve ratio will be assessed on net transaction accounts in excess of $79.5 million.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board announces annual indexing of reserve requirement exemption amount and of low reserve tranche for 2013--October 25, 2012

Yup, fractional reserve banking is a brilliant scheme, isn't it modeled after the Knights Templar system? There are some wonderful youtube videos explaining how it works, that's actually how I first learned of it.

 

[ThrottleJockey]

I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.
~ Woodrow Wilson
​

He said this AFTER creating the Fed...and then we have it in the words of a few other great men.

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. – Thomas Jefferson in the debate over the Re-charter of the Bank Bill (1809)

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.” – Thomas Jefferson

History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance. -James Madison

If congress has the right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given them to use themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or corporations. -Andrew Jackson

...and some other great and not so great men in history,

When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” – Napoleon Bonaparte, Emperor of France, 1815

Money plays the largest part in determining the course of history.” Karl Marx writing in the Communist Manifesto (1848).

It is not money that is the root of all evil but rather the LUST for money.

 

[smokingman]

Not sure how I missed this Friday.

Press Releases- Sprott Physical Silver Trust - Sprott Physical Bullion Trusts

Sprott Physical Silver Trust (the "Trust") (NYSE: PSLV / TSX: PHS.U), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical silver bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has priced its follow-on offering of 20,500,000 transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units") at a price of US$13.15 per Unit (the "Offering"). As part of the Offering, the Trust has granted the underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase up to 3,075,000 additional Units. The gross proceeds from the Offering will be US$269,575,000 (US$310,011,250 if the underwriters exercise in full the over-allotment option).

The latest purchase will put the physical trust in control of more physical silver than the entire COMEX dealer network.Total dealer inventory on the Comex is 36.408 million oz as of 11/10/12.It took them nearly two months to acquire the physical silver for the July purchase(directly from miners).
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
If they do the over-allotment option,that is right at 1/3 of the total dealer inventory on the Comex from this purchase alone.

The Sprott trust already holds $477,250,000 from the initial public offering,$303,600,000 from the January purchase,and
$200,005,000 from the July purchase.

 

[smokingman]

H.R. 6570: To amend the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008





Full Text of H.R. 6570: To amend the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and the Emergency Economic ... - GovTrack.us

IE it makes the Emergency economic stabilization act of 2008 permanent(with a possibility of repeal in 2016)giving the Federal Reserve much more power than it had prior to 2008.


It is awaiting Obama's signature having already passed,without debate.


In other news.Interesting article/graphics on food stamp usage.
America The Food Stamp Nation: The Infographic | SilverDoctors.com

Are you a turkey?
A turkey has a great life,until he doesn't.He is well fed by his farmer every day right up until the day he is butchered.Nothing in his experience would lead him to think anything bad would happen in his life.Everyday he gets copious amounts of feed,is cared for and has mostly a great life.His experience says this is the way life is,I am fat and happy.Then one day his life ends for reasons he did not even see as a possibility.

Do not be a turkey.Realize just because something has not happened in your life,does not mean it is not going to.

Break out of the normalcy bias.

Prep.