Mad scramble to buy now because rates are going way up?...sigh.
Ok, this is a bit insane.
New home sales just set a new record for September(or any month) all the way back to 1972 when it was created. Not by a little either it is the fastest increase MoM ever. Does anyone believe that?
United States New Home Sales MoM
Get the New Home Sales (MoM) results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.www.investing.com
I may reply to this thread tonight after digging through the actual numbers. I suspect multi occupant(apartments) units are the reason if it is to be remotely believed.
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Be sure to read this post! Beware of scammers. https://www.indianagunowners.com/threads/classifieds-new-online-payment-guidelines-rules-paypal-venmo-zelle-etc.511734/
Stock Market is ROCKING
- Thread starter Pepi
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The sales data and approved mortgages does not point to that at all(both have fallen by double digit percentages in the last 2 months). It would need to be cash buyers of new homes being built...in this market. It is unlikely.
The irony of this is they have a 13% cash reserve still vs US banks with 4.5% and they are still very much likely to be out of business if not bailed out by the government.
Monday looks to be ugly for sure.
This is what happens when you have share buybacks making a stock look good while it fails in every way. That and the unregulated derivatives marked pretty much all banks put huge amounts of wagers in. Someone always has to lose.
I am sure the impact will be felt.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
When Lehman and Bear failed, their core capital - U.S. Treasuries - were NOT dropping like a stone. In the last twenty years, our global banking system has NEVER faced a one-two punch of interest rate risk and credit risk combined.
Can you imagine being a board member of Credit Suisse? You take the Archegos and Greensill financial hits – then come war, an energy crisis-driven recession, and your foundation bedrock capital on the balance sheet, good old government bonds are dropping 10-30 points in a month. The CET1 ratio compares a bank's capital against its assets. Additional Tier 1 capital is composed of instruments that are not common equity. In the event of a crisis, equity is taken first from Tier 1. It´s a measurement of a bank's core equity capital, compared with its total risk-weighted assets.
With the declines in government bonds in Europe coupled with near certain recession risk – bank balance sheets look more like Credit “Swiss Cheese” than strong financial institutions.
It appears the entire house of cards is at risk.
Emergency meeting of the Federal Reserve called for Monday 10/3/2022
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Don’t they call an emergency meeting about once a month?
Not by a long ways. I think in the last 25 years or so we have seen them call an emergency meeting 8-10 times. Included a couple during 2008,again in 2017 when they backed off and restarted QE,and a few others. It is not a common occurrence,though this year it has happened once already, this will be the second time.
I just checked to make sure that was correct. It seems to be. Even in 2020 during the crisis they did not need to call an emergency meeting during the entire year. It is usually a systemic risk to the system that causes one to be called.
I think it is likely that the FED will do something to bailout EU and British banks(swap lines,discount window access ect) to stop the risk from hitting US banks to hard(high probability).
Pause rate hikes(medium probability)
Go full QE(least likely)
No matter what it does behind the closed door meeting it will have an over sized impact on global markets.
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You’re correct, they had one Feb 14th of this year, I neglected to look at the year when I searched for it and found other results.
Welp, tis the season for an October surprise.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Swap lines are being used by the fed to bailout EU banks(much like 2009-2010,but in larger sums).
Discount window lending has increased terms now. It has gone from overnight only to 90 days. I fully expect the amount of money lent to increase massively. It is already almost 4 trillion to banks PER DAY.
This article sums up well why I left the markets when I did early this year.
www.zerohedge.com
Friendly reminder 95 US banks borrowed 2.2 trillion plus every day for over 3 months now.
www.newyorkfed.org
The FED has now used swap lines to bail out EU banks to the tune of 6.3 billion in tier one credit for garbage they had on the books.
www.zerohedge.com
Currency wars are picking up steam and bond market liquidity is so bad the US treasury is considering selling US treasuries to BUY US treasuries from banks(do not try to explain logic to them,it is pretty much a treasury for the banks now),NOT the FED the US Treasury. IE our government would be doing QE without the Federal Reserve participating(working against each other on inflation).
What If Everyone's Wrong (Just Long Enough To Blow Up Their Account)? | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Friendly reminder 95 US banks borrowed 2.2 trillion plus every day for over 3 months now.
Reverse Repo Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
The FED has now used swap lines to bail out EU banks to the tune of 6.3 billion in tier one credit for garbage they had on the books.
Cue Dollar Squeeze Panic: Fed Sends A Record $6.3 Billion To Switzerland Via Swap Line | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Currency wars are picking up steam and bond market liquidity is so bad the US treasury is considering selling US treasuries to BUY US treasuries from banks(do not try to explain logic to them,it is pretty much a treasury for the banks now),NOT the FED the US Treasury. IE our government would be doing QE without the Federal Reserve participating(working against each other on inflation).
US treasury now giving away our money to the EU central bank(SDRs deposited with the IMF).
Seems the FED needs the treasury these days to keep the system from collapse.
So now the IMF is set to use US SDR deposits as collateral for loans to EU banks. We are in fact backing the entire EURO at this point,it is not even viable without US dollar backing. Even the French development minister called for the IMF to issue them loans,back by of course US SDRs 10/15/2022.
Awaiting approval from your congress critters.
www.dailywire.com
www.euronews.com
Seems the FED needs the treasury these days to keep the system from collapse.
So now the IMF is set to use US SDR deposits as collateral for loans to EU banks. We are in fact backing the entire EURO at this point,it is not even viable without US dollar backing. Even the French development minister called for the IMF to issue them loans,back by of course US SDRs 10/15/2022.
Awaiting approval from your congress critters.
Janet Yellen Asks Congress For Billions To Help Other Countries’ ‘Debt Relief,’ ‘Climate Change’ Initiatives
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asked Congress for billions to help foreign countries’ climate change and debt relief efforts. In prepared remarks to the House of Representatives’ Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, Yellen expressed concern that other economies are...
French development minister backs World Bank reforms, calls for U.S. SDR loans
By David Lawder
www.euronews.com
Attachments
Using SDRs to back other countries debts is not the same as providing US bonds or dollars for trade. It is two very different things. The later we have done since world war two,but the other is something totally new. It turns the EURO into a de-facto US dollar with citizens in those countries owing the USA taxes on SDR loans. It is not how things have ever worked in the EU.
It's still rocking. In a Sisyphus kinda way.
and the why appears. One of the largest banks on earth had a bank run and for good reason.The irony of this is they have a 13% cash reserve still vs US banks with 4.5% and they are still very much likely to be out of business if not bailed out by the government.
Monday looks to be ugly for sure.
This is what happens when you have share buybacks making a stock look good while it fails in every way. That and the unregulated derivatives marked pretty much all banks put huge amounts of wagers in. Someone always has to lose.
I am sure the impact will be felt.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
When Lehman and Bear failed, their core capital - U.S. Treasuries - were NOT dropping like a stone. In the last twenty years, our global banking system has NEVER faced a one-two punch of interest rate risk and credit risk combined.
Can you imagine being a board member of Credit Suisse? You take the Archegos and Greensill financial hits – then come war, an energy crisis-driven recession, and your foundation bedrock capital on the balance sheet, good old government bonds are dropping 10-30 points in a month. The CET1 ratio compares a bank's capital against its assets. Additional Tier 1 capital is composed of instruments that are not common equity. In the event of a crisis, equity is taken first from Tier 1. It´s a measurement of a bank's core equity capital, compared with its total risk-weighted assets.
With the declines in government bonds in Europe coupled with near certain recession risk – bank balance sheets look more like Credit “Swiss Cheese” than strong financial institutions.
It appears the entire house of cards is at risk.
Emergency meeting of the Federal Reserve called for Monday 10/3/2022
Credit Suisse Crashes Most Ever After Admitting It Suffered A Bank Run And Breached Liquidity Requirements | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Even though I was completely wrong and openly admit it, I have been able to best the S&P over the past 3 months.
When you only have 5% capitol reserves,and people withdraw more than you have, liquidations of assets happens to meet the demand for cash(deposits). Then the attempt at raising more capitol. If that fails you look for any buyer(not just for a stock offer,but of the company).
They have failed to raise capitol through stock sales. Liquidated any assets they could,and still do not have enough to cover deposits. Now the company is trying to firesale itself.
Loads of other banks and investing firms already own the stock and are taking billions in losses.
Schwab alone has gone from 82 a share to 61. All banks though are down(Chase down 7.3% as I write this)because they became dependent on each other to float capitol requirements.
I suspect the next emergency fed meeting within days,that or the treasury starts bailing out banks with capitol is does not really have(debt limit). They should have never lowered capitol requirements post 2008 from 10% to 5%. This is the result of that policy change and bad capitol management because few large institutions expected higher rates,and many bet against rates rising. They were wrong.
www.zerohedge.com
They have failed to raise capitol through stock sales. Liquidated any assets they could,and still do not have enough to cover deposits. Now the company is trying to firesale itself.
Loads of other banks and investing firms already own the stock and are taking billions in losses.
Schwab alone has gone from 82 a share to 61. All banks though are down(Chase down 7.3% as I write this)because they became dependent on each other to float capitol requirements.
I suspect the next emergency fed meeting within days,that or the treasury starts bailing out banks with capitol is does not really have(debt limit). They should have never lowered capitol requirements post 2008 from 10% to 5%. This is the result of that policy change and bad capitol management because few large institutions expected higher rates,and many bet against rates rising. They were wrong.
SVB scrambles for options after stock sale failed-sources By Reuters
SVB scrambles for options after stock sale failed-sources
www.investing.com
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
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