Stock Market is ROCKING

[smokingman]

Well...Recession
"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively." https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/res...source=twitter-atlantafed&utm_campaign=gdpnow

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

YTD basis as well, just 4 of 38 tracked assets are in positive territory, which as it stands is even lower than the 7 assets that managed to score a positive return in 2008. (link to charts above this post).

Chart of the reality we are in.


I hope the FED does not back off on raising rates,if they do inflation will be riot levels(stonks seem to think they will based on the rally after the Atlanta Fed release). Me,I do not see how they could,it would tank the dollar in a way never before seen(and lead to even more inflation).

 

[smokingman]

Checking in. I would like to point out current PE ratio's.
DOW is actually below 6 now at 5.56 today. 11.38 median value. It is by far the best looking of the 3 main markets in the USA.

Dow PE Ratio Analysis | YCharts

In depth view into Dow PE Ratio including historical data from 2019, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

S&P 19.48(media is 14.89)so still very high.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 29.94, a change of -0.04 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Nasdaq 22.48(median is 11.33) it is by far the most over valued of the 3.

Nasdaq PE Ratio 2010-2024 | NDAQ

<p>Current and historical p/e ratio for Nasdaq (NDAQ) from 2010 to 2024. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under...

www.macrotrends.net

The dollar is at almost 2 decade highs. 107.99 currently. Euro and Yen falling are the main reason.
Japan is a serious mess. The EU is preparing for Russia to not turn back on the gas(in 10 days if the maintenance goes as normal). No event has been as important in the last 70 years for markets. If the gas stays off Germany is estimating now a -17.2 gdp hit,and it has been the life boat for half the countries in the EU.

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/safe-haven-dollar-stands-tall-on-inflation-energy-jitters-2845780

 

[smokingman]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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Inflation 9.1%(officially). Notice the "sale" is in China not everywhere. Why? The currency it is priced in there. I think a point will come when it goes on sale even when priced in US dollars,but not until later in the cycle.
Here's the complete list of Apple product discounts during the upcoming sale this weekend:

• iPhone 13 Pro Max or iPhone 13 Pro, you can save RMB 600 immediately.
• iPhone 13 or iPhone 13 mini, you can save RMB 600.
• iPhone SE (3rd generation) can save RMB 200.
• iPhone 12 or iPhone 12 mini, you can save RMB 500 instantly.
• Save RMB 200 on Apple Watch SE.
• AirPods Pro can save RMB 250.
• AirPods (third generation) can save RMB 150.

"Weakening consumer demand, inflation and supply chain issues triggered a 9% fall in global smartphone shipments in the second quarter, research firm Canalys said this month. Chinese companies took the brunt of that hit, registering double-digit declines. -Bloomberg

The US dollar has had some serious swings lately. Moves of more than 1% per day are not rare events like they have been since the 1970s. Currently it is down 2.75% or so from the highs two weeks ago,but that is about to change. I suspect it continues the march higher very soon.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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The gas pump Canada has still not been delivered,though it has been cleared to be. It has been approved to be delivered for over 4 weeks now,but it has not moved from Germany. Yes,you read that correctly. It is and has been in Germany for over a month. They did send delivery paper work to Russia,today(7/25/2022) but not the pump itself...after the flow of gas was reduced 20%.
Germany will likely move to phase 3 of their emergency gas plan,as currently it is very unlikely that they can get enough gas before winter. It will close down a large portion of their manufacturing.

It is all rather odd at this point. As if someone wanted the gas to Germany and the EU shut off no matter the cost,and it is not Russia.

Siemens Finally Delivers Gazprom Transport Documents For Nord Stream Turbine | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

US 10 yr US Treasury is looking more stable the last couple of days,but if you look at even a 30 day chart you will notice the huge swings,partially because the US dollar has been all over the place.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield - Investing.com

Get our 10 year Treasury Bond Note overview with live and historical data. The yield on a 10 yr treasury bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond for 10 years.

www.investing.com

 

[mbkintner]

Posted this in the funny political pictures thread but everyone here should enjoy...

 

[smokingman]

Well Apple has just borrowed 5.5 BILLION. Oh, not to invest manufacturing ,research, or in anything that would improve company performance...that would be crazy talk.
No, they borrowed it to do more share buybacks on top of the 421 billion in surplus cash they have already used. You know stock buybacks used to be illegal for a reason(pre 1982 SEC 10b-18). Just in case you are wondering how a company hit that 3 trillion dollar valuation. The system is broken.

Apple Stock: Most Of Free Cash Flow Used To Buy Back Shares (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Apple stock is trading near record-high valuations. Buyback program provides strong support for AAPL stock. Learn more on Apple’s valuation and returns here.

seekingalpha.com

Blain: Apple's Bond Was A Critical Moment - Sell Euro, Buy Dollars! | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach $3 trillion market cap

Apple's cash flow also makes the stock a safe haven during times of market uncertainty.

www.cnbc.com

 

[smokingman]

USD index 110.278
Just a reminder June 13,2022 the dollar hit 104.81 and it was a new all time record. Now we are over 110. I still fully expect 120 by October given the EU just has off and Japan is still printing money to fund just about anything and everything.

So why is everything not cheaper? Something that used to cost 100 dollars should now cost around 91. Near as I can tell using logic and reason is inflation. So to make widgit "A" in the EU/Asia and export it to the US they have to use their own currencies for things like raw materials,labor,and infrastructure while also importing energy(oil,gas,ect)using dollars(at a much higher cost in their own currency). So widgit "A" ends up costing them much more to make. Then they have to sell it in their own currency based on the value of the dollar without losing money,so they raise the price even more causing more inflation(for us,which we then export back to them in the form of energy...it has become a loop).

The only true way humans have really ever increased in wealth/standard of living is cheaper energy. It determines everything. No cheap energy means every process in life costs more. The only way we will ever get back our standard of living(and for it to increase) is cheap energy. Nothing can really change that dynamic,it has been this way for thousands of years.

 

[Mikey1911]

USD index 110.278
Just a reminder June 13,2022 the dollar hit 104.81 and it was a new all time record. Now we are over 110. I still fully expect 120 by October given the EU just has off and Japan is still printing money to fund just about anything and everything.

So why is everything not cheaper? Something that used to cost 100 dollars should now cost around 91. Near as I can tell using logic and reason is inflation. So to make widgit "A" in the EU/Asia and export it to the US they have to use their own currencies for things like raw materials,labor,and infrastructure while also importing energy(oil,gas,ect)using dollars(at a much higher cost in their own currency). So widgit "A" ends up costing them much more to make. Then they have to sell it in their own currency based on the value of the dollar without losing money,so they raise the price even more causing more inflation(for us,which we then export back to them in the form of energy...it has become a loop).

The only true way humans have really ever increased in wealth/standard of living is cheaper energy. It determines everything. No cheap energy means every process in life costs more. The only way we will ever get back our standard of living(and for it to increase) is cheap energy. Nothing can really change that dynamic,it has been this way for thousands of years.

The sources of wealth are:
1) Mines (including oil and gas wells)
2) Factories
3) Farms
4) Power Plants

(taught to me by one of my seniors at Alcoa, who was a Central Fire Control gunner on a B-29 and survived with only 60% hearing loss when a Japanese fighter shot up his airplane with cannon shells)

 

[ancjr]

I figure $90 by mid October. Some are predicting much much higher by end of year...

 

[smokingman]

DOW,Nasdaq,and S&P are all down more than 11% each in the last 2 weeks.

At the same time the US dollar is setting almost daily record highs. Still a ways to go to my 120,but I have a feeling with the collapse of the British pound(they have an emergency central bank meeting today),Euro falling below parity,and the Yen failing to hold any ground after the bank of Japan intervened with the sale of over 10 billion in US treasuries to try and prop it up just yesterday that did almost nothing to stop the fall,I see no way the dollar does anything but go up for now. It of course will come back down as dollars return to the USA,but that is possibly a long ways off(years not months I believe).

US Dollar currently 112.82 at the market close to today.

Stocks on the US market are of course priced in dollars as I have pointed out many times. With the value up over 10% is the market down 10% really a shock to anyone? The real down turn has not even hit yet,the current one is almost totally dollar related. When unemployment starts climbing and profits do not come in as expected in a big way,that is when we will see the larger down turn I believe.

Same goes for all commodities. Even energy and foods are down(priced in dollars after all).

I also fully expect the price of anything imported to keep increasing(which is now in a loop that is only getting worse currently).

Brokerages are already limiting withdraws to prevent outright failure of some of the larger names. Most app based trading platforms are now taking out loans to cover losses and were given access the the FED overnight REPO window(for over night loans). That repo window is almost 3 trillion in daily loans now to mostly banks.

As a reminder parts of Frank Dodd were rolled back. Banks after 2008 were required 10% reserves(10 dollars for every 100 they lent),that has changed. It is now 4.5% or $4.50 per $100 they lend(it is now lower than the 5% required pre 2008). It will only likely end with bailouts and or bail-ins(the second is more likely where banks use depositor funds as the parts of Frank Dodd still on the books makes it illegal for the government to again bail out the banks). *side note FDIC insurance only covers you if the bank fails,not if they use your deposits. You simply will be a very low ranked debt holder,likely until the bank restructures and ends up owing you nothing in court.

Why Bank Bail-Ins Are the New Bailouts

Public outcry over rescuing banks with taxpayer money in 2008 forced a switch in governmental tactics, making bail-ins the new bank bailouts.

www.investopedia.com

About recaps where things stand 9/23/2022

 

[firecadet613]

DOW,Nasdaq,and S&P are all down more than 11% each in the last 2 weeks.

At the same time the US dollar is setting almost daily record highs. Still a ways to go to my 120,but I have a feeling with the collapse of the British pound(they have an emergency central bank meeting today),Euro falling below parity,and the Yen failing to hold any ground after the bank of Japan intervened with the sale of over 10 billion in US treasuries to try and prop it up just yesterday that did almost nothing to stop the fall,I see no way the dollar does anything but go up for now. It of course will come back down as dollars return to the USA,but that is possibly a long ways off(years not months I believe).

US Dollar currently 112.82 at the market close to today.

Stocks on the US market are of course priced in dollars as I have pointed out many times. With the value up over 10% is the market down 10% really a shock to anyone? The real down turn has not even hit yet,the current one is almost totally dollar related. When unemployment starts climbing and profits do not come in as expected in a big way,that is when we will see the larger down turn I believe.

Same goes for all commodities. Even energy and foods are down(priced in dollars after all).

I also fully expect the price of anything imported to keep increasing(which is now in a loop that is only getting worse currently).

Brokerages are already limiting withdraws to prevent outright failure of some of the larger names. Most app based trading platforms are now taking out loans to cover losses and were given access the the FED overnight REPO window(for over night loans). That repo window is almost 3 trillion in daily loans now to mostly banks.

As a reminder parts of Frank Dodd were rolled back. Banks after 2008 were required 10% reserves(10 dollars for every 100 they lent),that has changed. It is now 4.5% or $4.50 per $100 they lend(it is now lower than the 5% required pre 2008). It will only likely end with bailouts and or bail-ins(the second is more likely where banks use depositor funds as the parts of Frank Dodd still on the books makes it illegal for the government to again bail out the banks). *side note FDIC insurance only covers you if the bank fails,not if they use your deposits. You simply will be a very low ranked debt holder,likely until the bank restructures and ends up owing you nothing in court.

Why Bank Bail-Ins Are the New Bailouts

Public outcry over rescuing banks with taxpayer money in 2008 forced a switch in governmental tactics, making bail-ins the new bank bailouts.

www.investopedia.com

About recaps where things stand 9/23/2022

Good synopsis, thank you!

 

[jsx1043]

Japan selling off T-Bills to save the fall of the Yen

 

[smokingman]

Monday 9/26/2022
US Dollar is at 114.18(+.99%)

S&P -1.03%(officially in a bear market Friday down 21%+ now)
DOW -1.11%(officially a bear market down more than 20% from highs)
Nasdaq -.60 (The difference was Amazon,Apple,and Tesla all having stock buy backs today with their stocks up slightly. The top 5 companies on the Nasdaq are Apple,Mircrosoft,Amazon,Tesla,Alphabet and together they account for 49.8% of the Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq entered a bear market more than 2 months ago and is down 31.8% as of today since January.

The UK pound collapsed to almost parity with the dollar and is currently the lowest level it has seen since WW2.

The Yuan fell to the same level it was at during the peak of lockdowns in 2020(was a record low then).

The Yen gained .98% after selling 58 billion in US Treasuries,then turning around and buying longer term ones. You got me on this one. I have no clue how that worked to stop the fall. I do not think anyone does but the ones letting it(a boat load of shorts were absolutely destroyed).

The Euro is the lowest it has ever been vs the US dollar at .96 per dollar. They also sold off US treasuries today,but only a few billion. It was not enough to help as a whole to prop up the Euro.

I failed to mention the Australian dollar before,but have been paying attention to it for more than a decade. It is also at a new low. Having fallen from 1.04 per US dollar to .64 per US dollar.
Just since April it has gone from .78 to .64. I feel for that country. The green policies and government spending have destroyed it(60% GDP to Government debt,not counting pensions).

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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Germany's manufacturing index came in much worse than expected.
Oh,the Giga Tesla factory in Germany is on fire. The attached recycling center is where it started. Not under control yet.

Oil was down today,but likely short lived as rigs are being shut down in the gulf and gulf coast refineries are massively reducing production(not complete shut downs...yet) do to the incoming hurricane. It should at least temporarily lower natural gas prices in the US as our largest LNG export hub is in the gulf and it is reducing volumes in preparation as well.

In politics Italy has a new conservative Prime minister(the first in decades). She is actually fairly amazing. Good luck Italy.

 

[smokingman]

...sigh.
Ok, this is a bit insane.
New home sales just set a new record for September(or any month) all the way back to 1972 when it was created. Not by a little either it is the fastest increase MoM ever. Does anyone believe that?

United States New Home Sales MoM

Get the New Home Sales (MoM) results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.

www.investing.com

I may reply to this thread tonight after digging through the actual numbers. I suspect multi occupant(apartments) units are the reason if it is to be remotely believed.

 

[Wolfhound]

 

[smokingman]

...sigh.
Ok, this is a bit insane.
New home sales just set a new record for September(or any month) all the way back to 1972 when it was created. Not by a little either it is the fastest increase MoM ever. Does anyone believe that?

United States New Home Sales MoM

Get the New Home Sales (MoM) results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.

www.investing.com

I may reply to this thread tonight after digging through the actual numbers. I suspect multi occupant(apartments) units are the reason if it is to be remotely believed.

Same day National Association of Home builders report.

The NAHB housing market index in the US fell for the ninth straight month to 46 in September of 2022, below market forecasts of 47. It was the lowest level since May 2020 as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability. Current sales conditions dropped three points to 54, sales expectations in the next six months declined one point to 46 and traffic of prospective buyers fell one point to 31. “Buyer traffic is weak in many markets as more consumers remain on the sidelines due to high mortgage rates and home prices that are putting a new home purchase out of financial reach for many households,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter. source: National Association of Home Builders​

One of these is not like the other.

 

[rhamersley]

 

[smokingman]

Well Great Britain has now followed the terrible lead of Japan and the Fed for the first time.
They will start printing to buy their own bonds. I am sure it will help their inflation,food,and energy problem.

Pound drops more than 1% as Bank of England steps into bond market By Reuters

Pound drops more than 1% as Bank of England steps into bond market

www.investing.com

Euro is in deep trouble.
German Consumer Climate is at the lowest level ever. Much less than even during the peak of lock downs in 2020.

Germany GfK Consumer Climate

Get the GfK German Consumer Climate results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.

www.investing.com

 

[smokingman]

Same day National Association of Home builders report.

The NAHB housing market index in the US fell for the ninth straight month to 46 in September of 2022, below market forecasts of 47. It was the lowest level since May 2020 as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability. Current sales conditions dropped three points to 54, sales expectations in the next six months declined one point to 46 and traffic of prospective buyers fell one point to 31. “Buyer traffic is weak in many markets as more consumers remain on the sidelines due to high mortgage rates and home prices that are putting a new home purchase out of financial reach for many households,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter. source: National Association of Home Builders​

One of these is not like the other.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I am calling BS on the new home sales index. Nothing points to it being reality. The data has to be made up. It shows increases in almost every market. While every other housing index number has been crashing for months. I am just going to label that entire index as made up garbage(I tried to find the source of their data,but could find out very little other than what they posted as end results). They are clearly either are deliberately misleading or criminally compliant with someone who wants better numbers. Even MoM mortgage applications are down more than 8%. So for them to claim some new record is sales is laughable.
I thought multi unit building could explain it,but they do not include multi unit numbers in their report at all...zero.

 

[snorko]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I am calling BS on the new home sales index. Nothing points to it being reality. The data has to be made up. It shows increases in almost every market. While every other housing index number has been crashing for months. I am just going to label that entire index as made up garbage(I tried to find the source of their data,but could find out very little other than what they posted as end results). They are clearly either are deliberately misleading or criminally compliant with someone who wants better numbers. Even MoM mortgage applications are down more than 8%. So for them to claim some new record is sales is laughable.
I thought multi unit building could explain it,but they do not include multi unit numbers in their report at all...zero.

I agree the numbers are a little shady. However one thing that could push an uptick are a surge from pre-approved buyers with low locked in rates. If their pre-approval period is about to expire they would likely pull the trigger on the purchase.

 

[smokingman]

It of course will come back down as dollars return to the USA,but that is possibly a long ways off(years not months I believe).

I may have been wrong about this. It seems US Treasuries are being dumped all over the world from the EU,Great Britain,and the middle east(later just started happening today,shortly before the OPEC meeting next week).
The dollar is swinging more than 10% up and back down 5% in less than two weeks. If I am not mistaken I believe that to be the largest percentage moves(including up and down)in history.

US Dollar Index (USDX) - Investing.com

Our interactive US Dollar Index (USDX) chart shows you the live price of the US Dollar index as well as the top analysis, news, historical data and more.

www.investing.com