Russia vs. Ukraine Part 3

[Flash-hider]

A lot better all the way around than what the White House trots out daily.

 

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[Shadow01]

This looks good to me, and at first glance, makes me smile. However, and I'm no military strategist by any means, what is Ukraine's end game here? Do they think that Putie is going to allow this embarrassment to stand?

Place fear in the minds of Russian citizens in the region

 

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[Ark]

Russia Racing Troops To Kursk In Hopes Of Booting Ukraine's Invasion Forces

Four days into Ukraine's invasion of Russian territory, Moscow is trying to get a handle on an increasingly perilous situation.

www.twz.com

Basically a mad, chaotic rush underway as Ukraine tries to consolidate some gains in Kursk and Russia pours assets into what was clearly an improperly defended front. Ukraine has committed to this operation with a significant number of personnel and Western armored vehicles. Good information has been extremely hard to find, but Russia has taken losses from convoys of equipment getting hit by HIMARS on the way to the new front, and Ukraine has taken losses from looks like direct CAS by Russian air. No air-to-air losses so far claimed by either side, which is interesting as some have speculated this offensive was intended to draw Russian air out to be engaged by F-16s and AMRAAMs.

PR move to kick the narrative of front collapse in Ukraine out of the news? Hail Mary attempt to grab some territory to trade in peace talks? Hard to say exactly what the intention is with this attack, but Ukraine is clearly in a situation where they had to try something. To their credit they seem to have achieved a remarkable level of strategic surprise over Russia.

 

[jwamplerusa]

Russia Racing Troops To Kursk In Hopes Of Booting Ukraine's Invasion Forces

Four days into Ukraine's invasion of Russian territory, Moscow is trying to get a handle on an increasingly perilous situation.

www.twz.com

Basically a mad, chaotic rush underway as Ukraine tries to consolidate some gains in Kursk and Russia pours assets into what was clearly an improperly defended front. Ukraine has committed to this operation with a significant number of personnel and Western armored vehicles. Good information has been extremely hard to find, but Russia has taken losses from convoys of equipment getting hit by HIMARS on the way to the new front, and Ukraine has taken losses from looks like direct CAS by Russian air. No air-to-air losses so far claimed by either side, which is interesting as some have speculated this offensive was intended to draw Russian air out to be engaged by F-16s and AMRAAMs.

PR move to kick the narrative of front collapse in Ukraine out of the news? Hail Mary attempt to grab some territory to trade in peace talks? Hard to say exactly what the intention is with this attack, but Ukraine is clearly in a situation where they had to try something. To their credit they seem to have achieved a remarkable level of strategic surprise over Russia.

Ukraine has definitely managed to get well inside Russia's OODA loop!

If they exploit it with another bold unexpected move, then the attack was likely a well constructed plan. If not, it was a hail Mary based on hope.

 

[Ark]

Ukraine has definitely managed to get well inside Russia's OODA loop!

If they exploit it with another bold unexpected move, then the attack was likely a well constructed plan. If not, it was a hail Mary based on hope.

I absolutely think Russia was caught in the complacency of attrition warfare on this one. Hell of a risk for Ukraine, though, if they get their salient surrounded they'll be in trouble. It's unclear how much of their fanciest Western hardware is on the line with this operation.

This also isn't a "police operation" in a foreign country anymore. Russia now has enemy combatants on their established homeland soil for the first time in the war. Remains to be seen if that changes the rules.

 

[Ark]

Long roundup of incursion info. Sounds like some major intel screwups led to reinforcement convoys getting targeted by artillery. Probably not that surprising, though, imagine there was a border incursion in Texas and the government was trying to keep every zoomer with a cell phone from tweeting about convoys of military gear rolling through town.

Several possible strategic targets in the area, including the nuclear plant that powers most of Kursk and a major railway that parallels the border.

Ukraine is digging even deeper with the new round of drafts. It's hitting the workforce and the economy hard, on top of previous losses and people fleeing the country.

The impact of attacks on refining capability have been minimal. Russia has been repairing the refineries quickly, but there is a possibility of larger weapons with better warheads being used. About 60% of total Russian refining and export capability is theoretically within range.

Russian infrastructure attacks are increasingly shifting from targeting substations to targeting generation facilities directly.

 

[DadSmith]

 

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[KellyinAvon]

This ain't good.

 

[Route 45]

This ain't good.

Maybe he should launch a 3-day special military operation to take Kyiv.

 

[Leadeye]

My guess is that the offensive will run out of logistical gas and the front will be static until the russians get enough of a logistical buildup to start an offensive of their own. Modern weapons with their high to hit probability and lethality have made this like a new WW1. It's always less of a logistical drain to defend than it is to attack.

The war will go on, and on, and on.

 

[rhamersley]

My guess is that the offensive will run out of logistical gas and the front will be static until the russians get enough of a logistical buildup to start an offensive of their own. Modern weapons with their high to hit probability and lethality have made this like a new WW1. It's always less of a logistical drain to defend than it is to attack.

The war will go on, and on, and on.

 

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[DragonGunner]

View attachment 372688

And all that $$ landing in politicians pockets.

 

[KellyinAvon]

That is WW I with more advanced weapons.

 

[Ark]

Absolutely nobody is going to be doing this crap with a 12 pound 80,000psi 6.8 battle rifle that kicks like a mule and has an LPVO with a computer in it.