Did world war 3 just start?

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    INGO Clown
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    Uranus
    https://twitter.com/Kredo0/status/1156973549615308800

    Iranian Terrorists Demand $80 Million Ransom to Stop Mass Ecological Disaster -- Houthi militants blocking access to stranded oil tanker seen as large 'floating bomb' that will cause disaster four times larger than the Exxon-Valdez spill


    Meh, there is oil leaking into the oceans every day from natural fissures at probably 10 times the rate of that tanker.
     

    T.Lex

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    Seems odd seeing POLICE in English on the shields to me.

    As a British protectorate (or whatever legal status it had) for a VERY long time, English is a common language over there. Plus, there are so many people from so many other places, it is a convenient language for commerce.
     

    T.Lex

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    The potentially bigger issue, diplomatically speaking, is the April Glaspie maneuver of saying it is a matter between Hong Kong and China, because Hong Kong is part of China.
     

    Thor

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    The PLA garrison in HK published a video of its anti-riot training. The 3 minute video showed troops beginning with shouts of "All consequences are at your own risk." This is their standard fare. It shows typical lines of troops carrying shields and batons performing anti riot drills, moves on to tanks, armored street sweepers, rocket launchers, water cannon, troops deploying barbed wire and ends with ChiComs descending from helicopters and shooting their way through streets and into peoples homes.

    The Foreign Ministry said that "We resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and security and Hong Kong's prosperity and stability." They will define those terms as they see fit, and added "We believe the PLA Hong Kong Garrison will continue to be the anchor for Hong Kong's long-term prosperity and stability."

    If HK was going to contest its being consumed by the ChiComs they should have done it when the Brits were leaving. It is too late for them now. This would give us a good reason to CUT ALL ECONOMIC TIES TO THE CHICOMs though...the ChiComs, who are our enemies.
     

    NKBJ

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    On the brighter side Kashmir hasn't resulted in alpha, beta and gamma emitting clouds floating downwind so really that's a pretty good thing.
     

    Thor

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    Yeah, now that they have declared the Kashmir Special Status null and void and made them just another Indian state things may change rapidly. They have pissed off both Pakistan and China with the move. While they could be looking at a two front war the Pak's really can't afford one right now, and any war between P&I would be a nuclear war, and the ChiComs would probably only engage in a limited action to 'protect' the land they've claimed...sovereignty being a trigger for them...as they know a full out conflict with India would probably go nuclear.

    India may have judged it a good time to make the move permanent because of the 'stan's current economic woes but were probably surprised by the ChiCom push back. And everyone is sitting with their finger on their respective launch buttons.
     

    T.Lex

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    I'm stuck with "why now." Their economy seems solid - and losing a war rarely helps an economy. (Fighting one, arguably might.) Pakistan's isn't doing great, but that's not really new.

    China was looking elsewhere, but can turn its attention pretty easily. Could Modi be acting as our proxy by distracting China? Between the tariffs, Taiwan, and the SCS - not to mention the Africa initiatives - it could be a multi-front endeavor for them, too.

    Personally, I doubt very much this will go nuclear. At least not between India and Pakistan. They've had ample opportunities over the years for that to happen. I see something more like a continuation of the low simmer that's been going on there for a couple generations.
     

    Thor

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    If Pakistan declares war and India mobilizes the Paks will have no option that could possibly involve winning that does not involve nukes. They would lose a conventional war as badly as they lost all their other wars with India and their military is actually in worse condition than it was the last time India spanked them.
     

    T.Lex

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    I agree. And that's why I don't think they'll do anything... now.

    Well, a (stronger) pivot toward China could happen. Pakistan has long lived by the grace of its strongest allies. I don't see us intervening in that particular dispute, so that leaves China. Since China also has some skin in that game, I could see a concerted effort to help Pakistan.

    Even with Hong Kong and the trade war, they have the manpower to help Pakistan. Then it would be on us to help India... which I don't see happening.

    Diplomatically, if India sees Pakistan and China work together, I think India will realize that there is more to be lost than gained.

    None of us have a crystal ball, but I think there's still a variant of MAD out there among the nuclear powers.
     

    NKBJ

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    Recently listened to an intel type being interviewed that mentioned in passing that Mumbai terror in the shopping center thing that went down a while back. It was said in the interview that as painful as it is to say anything good about HRC she is the one that let India know that Pakistan was capable of and ready for nuclear deployment faster than the India government was basing it's planning on. Thus, nuclear war was averted.
    Now here they come cranking up the virmanas.
     

    Thor

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    Kashmir remains in lock down. No civilian communications and limited reporting. 400 Kashmiri politicians have been detained. Pakistan has suspended all trade with India. Six reported killed and 100 injured in protests. Jaish-e-Mohammed, the militant group dedicated to having Kashmir ceded to Pakistan can be counted upon to throw a jihadist hissy fit. India is locking down their airports with additional security checkpoints.
     
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