Coronovirus IV

[T.Lex]

...which is exactly what they do. Which, I'm sure, you know.

The thing is, that "burden" includes flu-induced pneumonia and other conditions that are worsened/exacerbated due to flu, or that are opportunistic due to flu-caused immune-system weakening.

That may sound similar to what has been done for COVID; however, the difference is that flu deaths don't subsume reported pneumonia deaths - whereas currently, COVID deaths completely subsume flu deaths, pneumonia deaths, and all manner of co-morbidities and opportunistic diseases/disorders.

Which also dilutes the "only the flu" argument.

We actually don't know what "the flu" does in any given year, with any accuracy. We have relied on... wait for it... modeling.

ETA:

In a way, this constitutes a defense for how the CDC has handled COVID reporting. They've never (as far as I can tell) been asked to collate data on actual deaths from anything (other than guns) in a comprehensive or meaningful way. Hard to expect them to do it for something new.

 

[BugI02]

Which also dilutes the "only the flu" argument.

We actually don't know what "the flu" does in any given year, with any accuracy. We have relied on... wait for it... modeling.

ETA:

In a way, this constitutes a defense for how the CDC has handled COVID reporting. They've never (as far as I can tell) been asked to collate data on actual deaths from anything (other than guns) in a comprehensive or meaningful way. Hard to expect them to do it for something new.

Then perhaps the CDC could do a bit less telling us 'what the numbers say' and a bit more admitting 'we don't really have any numbers, just more models'

Confidence windows exist for a reason

 

[nonobaddog]

No, no they weren't. At least no where near this level. Schools were never closed, etc., etc.


When in the past have you seen masks worn in America?

Are you talking about before the plague from china? Then you are right. But the flu was going just as normal until the chinese virus started and then people started doing things, a lot of things, that reduce ALL virus spreading. This includes reducing the spread of the flu.

The flu numbers are seasonally normal for 2019 and into 2020 right up until these actions started.

The scary thing is if the flu numbers are this suppressed by the actions taken - then maybe the chinese virus numbers are also this suppressed by the actions taken. So when the actions taken are relaxed will we see a huge second wave?
In a way I hope the CDC has been dicking around with the flu numbers (and they probably are) so the real flu suppression is not this effective. Because if the flu suppression is real then maybe the plague suppression is equally real and relaxation of the suppressing actions will be bad news.

 

[Ziggidy]

Are you talking about before the plague from china? Then you are right. But the flu was going just as normal until the chinese virus started and then people started doing things, a lot of things, that reduce ALL virus spreading. This includes reducing the spread of the flu.

The flu numbers are seasonally normal for 2019 and into 2020 right up until these actions started.

The scary thing is if the flu numbers are this suppressed by the actions taken - then maybe the chinese virus numbers are also this suppressed by the actions taken. So when the actions taken are relaxed will we see a huge second wave?
In a way I hope the CDC has been dicking around with the flu numbers (and they probably are) so the real flu suppression is not this effective. Because if the flu suppression is real then maybe the plague suppression is equally real and relaxation of the suppressing actions will be bad news.

Is it being suggested that the reason for the low seasonal flu numbers are because we began to take precautions for the china flu?

Interesting but I cannot buy into it if that is what is being presented; at least not totally. I have 2 thoughts that come to mind why the seasonal flu records may be lower than normal. 1) No one was being allowed to see any doctors and such that would normally classify an illness as seasonal fly. IOW, lower contact with healthcare professionals, ER's, hospitals, doctor visits and such prevented identification of seasonal flu and 2) just about everything was being classified as the china flu. People who were sick for whatever reason - has the china flu. Many deaths were erroneously reported as china flu to manipulate the numbers.

I do believe there may have been a slight impact of our efforts but it cannot be proven.

 

[BugI02]

Is it being suggested that the reason for the low seasonal flu numbers are because we began to take precautions for the china flu?

Interesting but I cannot buy into it if that is what is being presented; at least not totally. I have 2 thoughts that come to mind why the seasonal flu records may be lower than normal. 1) No one was being allowed to see any doctors and such that would normally classify an illness as seasonal fly. IOW, lower contact with healthcare professionals, ER's, hospitals, doctor visits and such prevented identification of seasonal flu and 2) just about everything was being classified as the china flu. People who were sick for whatever reason - has the china flu. Many deaths were erroneously reported as china flu to manipulate the numbers.

I do believe there may have been a slight impact of our efforts but it cannot be proven.

I don't believe you get $19000 for treating a flu case and $39000 if that case is admitted to ICU, either. That and the starving of hospitals and practices of non-WuVid 19 cases and procedures would seem to be very likely to create downward pressure on flu diagnoses in favor of WuVid 19

 

[nonobaddog]

Is it being suggested that the reason for the low seasonal flu numbers are because we began to take precautions for the china flu?

Exactly! With all the precautions being taken there is no way in hell it couldn't reduce flu numbers. This ain't difficult - everything everybody is doing to reduce the chinese virus works to reduce the influenza virus too.

 

[Ziggidy]

Exactly! With all the precautions being taken there is no way in hell it couldn't reduce flu numbers. This ain't difficult - everything everybody is doing to reduce the chinese virus works to reduce the inflenza virus too.

Is it possible that, without direct medical interpretation, a large segment of those who claim they had the china flu actually had a bad case of the seasonal flu; only classified as china flu for convenience and manipulation?

I'm suggesting that the china flu numbers may have reflected those who may have had just seasonal flu. No one was testing, no one was allowed to see doctors, even with symptoms they were not testing to determine if it may have been seasonal flu (as a rule out measure).

I am saying, just maybe, the china flu numbers were never as high as reported; thus the curve was flat to begin with?

 

[nonobaddog]

Is it possible that, without direct medical interpretation, a large segment of those who claim they had the china flu actually had a bad case of the seasonal flu; only classified as china flu for convenience and manipulation?

I'm suggesting that the china flu numbers may have reflected those who may have had just seasonal flu. No one was testing, no one was allowed to see doctors, even with symptoms they were not testing to determine if it may have been seasonal flu (as a rule out measure).

I am saying, just maybe, the china flu numbers were never as high as reported; thus the curve was flat to begin with?

Except that some people were being tested, some people were seeing doctors, that is how they all got into the hospitals.

I would bet there are definitely crossover diagnoses both ways depending on the symptoms and the doctors mood or agenda.
About the only thing we know with accuracy is that the numbers are not accurate.

 

[Ziggidy]

Except that some people were being tested, some people were seeing doctors, that is how they all got into the hospitals.

I would bet there are definitely crossover diagnoses both ways depending on the symptoms and the doctors mood or agenda.
About the only thing we know with accuracy is that the numbers are not accurate.

100% agreed!

 

[T.Lex]

Is it possible that, without direct medical interpretation, a large segment of those who claim they had the china flu actually had a bad case of the seasonal flu; only classified as china flu for convenience and manipulation?

I'm suggesting that the china flu numbers may have reflected those who may have had just seasonal flu. No one was testing, no one was allowed to see doctors, even with symptoms they were not testing to determine if it may have been seasonal flu (as a rule out measure).

I am saying, just maybe, the china flu numbers were never as high as reported; thus the curve was flat to begin with?

Here on INGO, and in the real world, people cast doubt on the reported number of infections as being too low because many people were being told to stay home. At this point, based on anecdotes and limited reporting of antibody testing, I do think a significant number of those people "just" had the seasonal flu. In which case things like having the vaccine helped.

The idea was, though, that the actual mortality rate was MUCH lower than reported because so many cases were untested.

As testing has increased, I think we're getting a better idea of the actual infection rate, and thus the actual mortality rate.

Until relatively recently, there was little to no reporting of "presumptive positives." And, until the antibody testing is more comprehensive, we won't really know how many of those were actual positives.

At this point, the reported positives are primarily (from what I can glean), actual testing-positives or contact tracing presumptive positive among people who have had confirmed exposure. There are uncounted positives and counted negatives in that mix, and overall I figure they pretty much net out. With more than 1.4M reported positives, the confidence factor for that number is still pretty high.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Back to arguing about modeling. *sigh*

 

[HoughMade]

https://fox59.com/news/coronavirus/...o-give-update-on-covid-19-efforts-in-indiana/

Preliminary results from study by the Fairbanks School of Public Health at IUPUI shows mortality rate from COVID-19 in Indiana of .58%

 

[Fargo]

https://fox59.com/news/coronavirus/...o-give-update-on-covid-19-efforts-in-indiana/

Preliminary results from study by the Fairbanks School of Public Health at IUPUI shows mortality rate from COVID-19 in Indiana of .58%

If they could keep it out of the old folks homes, that number would be dramatically lower, but with the asymptomatic numbers that’s going to be difficult to do, especially at this point.

 

[HoughMade]

If they could keep it out of the old folks homes, that number would be dramatically lower, but with the asymptomatic numbers that’s going to be difficult to do, especially at this point.

Certainly.

Towards the end of 'Rona III, I shared a personal anecdote about a friend of the family who worked in a nursing home and brought it home from there to her elderly parents and brother before she knew she had it. Long story short, her Dad, my pastor in my teen years (and a pretty good softball pitcher in the '80s) who was also my dad's best friend, died of this on Monday. The numbers are low, with a time machine, would have been lower, but it has really cut a swathe through nursing homes and people in contact with nursing homes.

 

[ghitch75]

why is not everyone who has been to walmart,lowes,menards ect are not dead yet if this is so deadly??????.....it should have took us all out by now....right????

 

[HoughMade]

why is not every who has been to walmart,lowes,menards ect are not dead yet if this is so deadly??????.....it should have took us all out by now....right????

I'm just spitballin' here...because it's not that deadly at all to the average person and while contagious, not as contagious as some led us to believe?

I mean, on INGO, I was warned about going outside on my own 2.5 rural acres, yet....

 

[nonobaddog]

why is not everyone who has been to walmart,lowes,menards ect are not dead yet if this is so deadly??????.....it should have took us all out by now....right????

Some people wash their hands.

 

[ghitch75]

so as i think that the 80k + that has died where going to die anyway....with or with out it

 

[Phase2]

If they could keep it out of the old folks homes, that number would be dramatically lower, but with the asymptomatic numbers that’s going to be difficult to do, especially at this point.

Some states have been actively working against that goal. New York, Pennsylvania and some other states *ordered* their nursing homes to accept Wuhan coronavirus patients.

Too bad we didn't know early on that this disease was most serious for the elderly, those with additional conditions or that the first outbreak in the US was in a nursing home in Washington...

 

[churchmouse]

why is not everyone who has been to walmart,lowes,menards ect are not dead yet if this is so deadly??????.....it should have took us all out by now....right????

I was in the hospital today for a battery of tests to see why my blood pressure is low.
In my discussion of this crap with my Dr we figured out I most likely had this last fall or so. Symptoms were all there. Sick as I have ever been.
The took some Blood (several samples) and will check to see if any trace is there. He said even money it is.

So, with a compromised immune system and not a young man by any stretch and I survived. And add in the spouse is also somewhat compromised she was fine. The terrorists were fine. The daughter and hubby were fine. We all had major contact. So WTAF here peoples. Models be damned. Masks be damned.