Coronovirus IV

[HoughMade]

It looks like he is speculating -

...and his opinion is about the timing, not speculation, not what causes the timing.

 

[BugI02]

No, not really. It is when the intent of your actions goes from merely doing what you think is right to making a "statement" or attempting to influence the actions or beliefs of others that you move into the realm of virtue signaling.

"If I don't post a picture of me doing it on social media to show everyone how educated/compassionate/woke I am, did I even really do it at all?"

And people doing it for the right reason would be content with that, they wouldn't be trying to influence the behavior of others by proselytizing and mask shaming. IMO that demonstrates that they are unsure of their own decision and need the reinforcement of the crowd and general compliance. If they were confident they would not care if they were the only one wearing a mask or the only one not

 

[BugI02]

Trump expressed disagreement?

No, I think it was Bartholomew I

 

[nonobaddog]

...and his opinion is about the timing, not speculation, not what causes the timing.

Where has the spread dropped to "almost zero" in 70 days? Maybe if you believe the china numbers?
In Minnesota it is well past 70 days and we are right near the top for deaths per day and patients in the ICU today.
Indiana is not "almost zero" now and neither is New York or the USA as a whole.

 

[Ingomike]

This was covered in these threads earlier a little bit, but ignored, and that’s a shame because, while I have always thought the virus a potential threat, that threat started waning at about 40 days, but we were already on this terrible trajectory of shutdown that was hard to reverse.

It is a part of our overall arrogant affluence in society that all risk can be mitigated, particularly by government. Once the government told the sheeple what to do, and government had that power rush, the train is very hard to stop...

 

[Ingomike]

Where has the spread dropped to "almost zero" in 70 days? Maybe if you believe the china numbers?
In Minnesota it is well past 70 days and we are right near the top for deaths per day and patients in the ICU today.
Indiana is not "almost zero" now and neither is New York or the USA as a whole.

It depends on your definition of "almost zero " for 328 million people. Is 1% near zero? .5%? .25%? Just what number are you looking for?

 

[drillsgt]

What he has observed, he reports. He is not speculating as to why it peaks at 40 days or drops to almost nothing at 70. An academic who knows the limitations of the data and his own expertise.. That's actually refreshing.

I agree, it's one of the things I will ding you on when reviewing a manuscript, if you are start speculating vs. what you have evidence for etc.

 

[nonobaddog]

It depends on your definition of "almost zero " for 328 million people. Is 1% near zero? .5%? .25%? Just what number are you looking for?

That is true. He didn't define what "almost zero" means. I don't think it matters what I think it means. He said it and I don't know exactly what it means.
I truly hope he is right that it goes away at 70 days and I am sure he has numbers that I don't have but I sure don't see any evidence that supports his statement. If you see any please share.

 

[nonobaddog]

I agree, it's one of the things I will ding you on when reviewing a manuscript, if you are start speculating vs. what you have evidence for etc.

Do you see any supporting evidence?

 

[HoughMade]

Do you see any supporting evidence?

First of all, the Article is from April 14th. Has he updated his opinion since then? What does the data show? Is he right, is he wrong at the end of May? Don't know.

He reported what he observed. That's all he said and all I said.

 

[nonobaddog]

First of all, the Article is from April 14th. Has he updated his opinion since then? What does the data show? Is he right, is he wrong at the end of May? Don't know.

He reported what he observed. That's all he said and all I said.

Well, I hope and pray that I am wrong but it looks to me like he is wrong.

 

[jamil]

No, not really. It is when the intent of your actions goes from merely doing what you think is right to making a "statement" or attempting to influence the actions or beliefs of others that you move into the realm of virtue signaling.

"If I don't post a picture of me doing it on social media to show everyone how educated/compassionate/woke I am, did I even really do it at all?"

Surely you can see why one might wonder. You basically said, if the viral load is so much less, then the asymptotic mask wearers are virtue signaling. And certainly there are the virtue-signalers trying to make a statement. But also people like to behave to facilitate the general good as long as it’s not too costly. They’re being told wearing masks reduces the spread. So they wear them. And they believe it’s helping themselves and others. That’s not virtue signaling. Also, many asymptomatic people wear masks because it’s required to enter the place they want to be. So there are plenty of reasons to wear masks that have nothing to do with virtue signaling. And maybe you intended an implied disclaimer to exclude what I think would be the most common reason, because they believe it’s helping. Maybe you could modify the statement to say “ignorance or virtue signaling.” I think I’d agree with that more.

 

[jamil]

OK. I read those statements as meaning the asymptomatic person doesn't need to wear a mask. Since the mask protects other people, when you say they don't need a mask then they must not be a risk to other people.

I'm not sure I buy that just yet. There has been an awful lot of stuff out there saying they could spread the chinese virus which means they are a risk to other people.

I definitely buy that it’s possible or even likely. Especially those people wearing masks outdoors in open spaces. I see people outside jogging, riding bicycles, doing yoga, wearing masks all the time. And I wonder when I see them if all they’re accomplishing is depriving themselves of enough oxygen as they’re getting their heart rates up.

 

[chipbennett]

Surely you can see why one might wonder. You basically said, if the viral load is so much less, then the asymptotic mask wearers are virtue signaling. And certainly there are the virtue-signalers trying to make a statement. But also people like to behave to facilitate the general good as long as it’s not too costly. They’re being told wearing masks reduces the spread. So they wear them. And they believe it’s helping themselves and others. That’s not virtue signaling. Also, many asymptomatic people wear masks because it’s required to enter the place they want to be. So there are plenty of reasons to wear masks that have nothing to do with virtue signaling. And maybe you intended an implied disclaimer to exclude what I think would be the most common reason, because they believe it’s helping. Maybe you could modify the statement to say “ignorance or virtue signaling.” I think I’d agree with that more.

That's an awfully long-winded way to say...basically exactly what I said.

Virtue signaling is attempting to bring attention to the implied intent behind your actions. Anyone merely doing something and not trying to draw attention to themselves doing it are not virtue signaling. Ignorance doesn't really play a part. One can virtue signal about something that is true or about something that is untrue, and one's knowledge or ignorance of truth does not impact whether one's actions constitute virtue signaling.

 

[jamil]

That's an awfully long-winded way to say...basically exactly what I said.

Virtue signaling is attempting to bring attention to the implied intent behind your actions. Anyone merely doing something and not trying to draw attention to themselves doing it are not virtue signaling. Ignorance doesn't really play a part. One can virtue signal about something that is true or about something that is untrue, and one's knowledge or ignorance of truth does not impact whether one's actions constitute virtue signaling.

That’s what you said after the original statement. I was getting more at what you initially said. You did not qualify it. Admittedly my post was a stream of thought as usual. So the intent may have been lost.

 

[jamil]

Here’s an example of virtue signaling.

Was out biking with my wife on the Louisville Loop, through a string of parks along Floyd’s Fork. In one of the parks, in an oddly public space for doing yoga, some lady (fit and attractive) was signaling her, uh, we’ll call it “virtue”. Of course she was waring a mask. Clingy yoga outfit. Right near the pavilion which is the focal point of that particular park. The park was very crowded with bicyclists, walkers, joggers, people putting their canoes in, etcetera.

Okay. She’s free to set up wherever she wants. I’m just asking why there? In the city, this would be like doing yoga near the playhouse area at McDonald's. I mean. Why would you unless you want people to see you do yoga. Definitely signaling something. Like, dude’s yer out of my league but you may ogle. Ladies, this is what you dream your ass looked like.

I didn’t stare. Didn’t want to get socked by my wife. Yeah. She noticed that lady too. Everyone did.

 

[JettaKnight]

That’s what you said after the original statement. I was getting more at what you initially said. You did not qualify it. Admittedly my post was a stream of thought as usual. So the intent may have been lost.

THIS.


There was no qualifier on the statement, which made be question it.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

ABC looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH

 

[T.Lex]

ABC looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH

Yeah, in aggregate, the numbers appear to be holding pretty steady and maybe even declining. Things seem manageable at this point.

 

[BugI02]

That is true. He didn't define what "almost zero" means. I don't think it matters what I think it means. He said it and I don't know exactly what it means.
I truly hope he is right that it goes away at 70 days and I am sure he has numbers that I don't have but I sure don't see any evidence that supports his statement. If you see any please share.

You mean like these numbers from the Ohio Dept of Health?

Start of graphing 21 Mar Daily new deaths: 1 Total Deaths: 8

Highest single day new deaths 28 Apr (38 days in) Daily new Deaths: 63 Total Deaths: 1126

40 days in 30 Apr Daily new deaths: 31 Total Deaths: 1201

Most recent numbers 28 May (68 days in) Daily new deaths: 5 Total Deaths: 2111
Previous day numbers 27 May(67 days in) Daily new deaths: 11 Total Deaths: 2106
Previous day numbers 26 May (66 days in) Daily new deaths: 8 Total Deaths: 2095

The daily death rate is clearly tailing off to numbers substantially similar to the start of record keeping, which will need to stand in for the start of the epidemic which is unknown

The worst single day occurred very close to 40 days in, and the numbers of new death began to drop off substantially as we approach 70 days in

We began re-opening May 7, so we are 3 weeks into the process with no sign of a secondary peak