Coronovirus III

[jamil]

Then please explain Bell Labs and/or Xerox Parc. They were not dependent on government largesse, and intellectual stars would compete to work there because of the freedom not the salaries (not to say that those were stingy, though)

To me; government, when involved in research at all, should be supporting research into far future technology that may eventually be needed like fusion or Thorium cycle power generation and high density electrical storage with fast discharge capability for using renewable power generation for peaking. When government gets too involved in near future tech, you have the crony capitalism/picking winners and losers issues. Think NASA in cutting edge aeronautics. Companies should feel the need to do the research so they will be rewarded with a desireable process or product's market success, not get paid to do the research whether it is useful or not. The latter is how you get research on the flower preference of drunken honeybees

Hiring the best and brightest and giving them a little time and company resources, to use as they wished, worked out pretty well. Even the work done at Apple in the Jobs days was impressive. The model of slavish devotion of all of a successful company's resources to pursuits revolving around stock price has just meant that disruptive technology arises from outside the firm and generates competition rather than arising from within and generating new products

Well. Yeah, but you're talking about why another, much smaller country, with a way smaller research budget, is further along in some of the virology than we are. It's not because all our researchers are social justice warriors. It's more likely it's because of priorities.

 

[jamil]

Those are both kind of self-fulfilling prophesies.

If you predict dire consequences(over-reach) then there is at some part of the population that will react to avoid the doom and gloom(whatever it is) and thus affect the outcome by reducing the doom and gloom. This automatically makes the over-reach more over-reached. Fewer people die.

If you predict minor consequences(under-reach) then there is at some part of the population that will not react to avoid the doom and gloom(whatever it is) and thus affect the outcome by increasing the doom and gloom. This automatically makes the under-reach more under-reached. More people die.

This creates a motivation for the politician/pseudo-scientist/witch-doctor to present an over-reach to the people. Fewer people die is good.

yeah. pretty much.

 

[smokingman]

After getting the masks I recommended from Maskd Health yesterday, I simply can’t recommend them. My face isn’t huge, but the straps (which are not particularly stretchy) pull forward on my ears. They’re simply too small. That, and they don’t seal around the nose. Just not very well engineered at all.

Quick easy solution for the ear loops. Sun-glass retaining straps. Tie to both loops and use the bungee tightener of the straps to pull your mask tight(not your ears). If you have someone that can sew them to the loops it would be better. Something like these....
https://www.amazon.com/Chums-Origin...2-7547-4d9b-b4f8-fe31bfe05040&tag=fsmag_os-20

 

[Snapdragon]

Quick easy solution for the ear loops. Sun-glass retaining straps. Tie to both loops and use the bungee tightener of the straps to pull your mask tight(not your ears). If you have someone that can sew them to the loops it would be better. Something like these....
https://www.amazon.com/Chums-Origin...2-7547-4d9b-b4f8-fe31bfe05040&tag=fsmag_os-20

Or a small zip tie pulling the loops together in back of your head.

 

[smokingman]

Or a small zip tie pulling the loops together in back of your head.

We are talking reusable cloth masks. With the sun glass tightener and the fact you can just leave it on your mask when you wash it. I think it is a better idea than zip ties.

I really do not like the ear loops either. The ones that go all the way behind my head I do not mind. I just do not like something pulling on my ears so I found a solution.

 

[Snapdragon]

We are talking reusable cloth masks. With the sun glass tightener and the fact you can just leave it on your mask when you wash it. I think it is a better idea than zip ties.

I really do not like the ear loops either. They ones that go all the way behind my head I do not mind. I just do not like something pulling on my ears so I found a solution.

OK, so bad idea. I was thinking they were disposable.

 

[jamil]

Long-term, there are two legitimate (related) questions about the models:

1) What was the predictive value of the models against actual outcomes?
2) Did the models accurately predict, with any statistical significance, differences in outcomes based on differences in policy?

The first question will be easier/faster to answer. The second one will take some digging, and I'm not sure it will prove to have been true. I have a growing suspicion that COVID-19 model curves will, in the end, be pretty much like the climate-change junk-science models, that yield a hockey stick curve regardless of any random data set input into the model. What if, in the end, the COVID-19 curves will have been pretty much the same, regardless of social policy implemented?

I'm not sure there is the same incentive. I often say if you act like you're hiding something, I have a good reason to think you're hiding something. The climate change zealots act an awful lot like they're trying to hide something. Probably too early to tell, but I don't really have any reason to think that the people developing the models to predict COVID-19 have some other motive. And they don't need a motive to be wrong. It could be that they just happen to be making a lot of bad assumptions that stack up to a hockey stick.

I think that it's mostly that the models were stuffed with data from some unreliable sources. Like China. And also stuff with more data from sources that aren't close enough to our society to be as applicable. Like Italy. And, mostly, it's a really hard problem to model. I would expect that if the people doing the models are just trying to make an accurate model, and they're smart, and we get better information for the inputs, the models will get closer to reality. I don't think we're talking about anything on the scale of climate models.

 

[Alpo]

Well now hold on. It's the distance from the center that makes the stubbornness, not the direction from center. The world is filled with fringe ideologues both on the left and right. People on the fringe left are just as bat **** crazy as the fringe right. They're just anti-science in a different direction. So let's not try to assert that "anti-science" has anything to do with an exclusive ideology. Also let's not try to implicitly assert that one fringe is any more or less intelligent than the other. But I'll concede that the fringe left have more people with advanced degrees than the fringe right. Makes no difference. A bat **** crazy phd who believes he is justified in throwing bike locks at students he disagrees with is as bat **** crazy as Billy Ray Beaucracker holed up in his bunker making explosives to bomb the abortion clinic. The fringe nutter with a phd just means he's had a formal education in bat **** crazy.

[video=youtube_share;6b-FFwVFMME]http://youtu.be/6b-FFwVFMME[/video]

 

[jamil]

It is funny how the left cannot imagine in their wildest dreams that the right and conservatives are not the knuckle dragging bafoons they have always believed and that it is they, perceiving themselves so worldly and scientific, that have turned what was once a bipartisan idea of cleaning the planet up into a religious cult complete with very unscientific dogmas...

I have a coworker that is trying to understand his dad, a Trump supporter. He says they can't talk about politics. It seems to me that he's not really trying to understand his dad as much as that he's trying to find a way to accept and tolerate that he believes the things he does. As if the things he believes about the world is the right way, and why in the world can't his dad get it through his head how wrong he is. He acts like the things he believes are the standard, sort of common knowledge indisputable. And they're not. It's mostly stuff that he gets from his view of the world. I think he'd get along better with his dad if he accepted that his dad is no more or less crazy than he is.

 

[Trigger Time]

Sadly we are still just at the start of this. I also mentioned things like oil filters(auto),tires,soap,and pretty much anything you have purchased in the last 20 years. China just shut down a few cities again and some suburbs of Wuhan. Shipping is still down. If you look at inter Asia shipping it almost does not exist.

A clothing factory in South East Asia is not getting cloth from China still(India,Pakistan,Vietnam,and Bangladesh) so they are not making exports. Shipping world wide is down over 30% so far this year. This is likely a good read for those interested in shipping released April 30,2020. https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl...documents/pdf/glo-dgf-ocean-market-update.pdf

Some interesting white papers on shipping issues specifically. https://www.joc.com/whitepapers

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/ We are at around 105 prescription drugs experiencing shortages in the USA. It does not include any over the counter shortages of which we have many.

Some things will become harder to get as time passes. I have ordered some clothing items that I am sure I will use in the future as well as many other things. Worst case I pay less now as we are guaranteed to have inflation in things we need and deflation in things we do not.

Expect some great deals in the coming year for things you do not need. Especially used. Yachts,cars,planes,and recreational vehicles should all drop in price. I would give it a few more months,but it will happen. When someone can not afford to pay for the slip fee on a 100k boat they will put it up for sale. Most likely they would reject a 40k offer now,but in a few months they will be willing to sell it for 15k just to get rid of the liability and fees. We are not there yet but it is starting at a smaller scale already.

Sweet. I'm wanting a used airplane.

 

[smokingman]

We have a drug that works in critical cases. It is a known drug used to treat arthritis. Auranofin. Might want to write this one down just in case as it is one if not only drug I have seen that works in the late stages of the disease.

The FDA- approved gold drug Auranofin inhibits novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) replication and attenuates inflammation in human cells


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.041228v1

I think with a good antioxidant (IV vitamin C) to deal with excess iron and a couple of transfusions it would help even the most critically ill.

HoosierDoc how many have you seen that needed blood transfusions do to hemoglobin levels?

 

[singlesix]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/even...toms-fade-coronavirus-victims-face-new-danger

Article indicating some other serious side affects of COVID-19

 

[smokingman]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/even...toms-fade-coronavirus-victims-face-new-danger

Most studies are pointing this out now. Any standard blood thinner like warfarin needs to be administered to covid-19 patients.

The general thing I have learned about this disease in the last 3 months is that is more a blood disease than typical pneumonia. It attacks red blood cells,bursting them and releasing iron. Causing a cytokine storm(inflammation) and clotting especially of the smaller blood vessels in the lungs. Many mention patients needed transfusions because they lack enough hemoglobin to transport oxygen effectively(thus the low oxygen levels). A ventilator will help with none of that. It also affects the brain and if someone stops breathing,then of course a ventilator is needed.

Still quite a bit to learn about it,but I think the science is getting to where we can have much higher survival rates.

 

[nonobaddog]

We have a drug that works in critical cases. It is a known drug used to treat arthritis. Auranofin. Might want to write this one down just in case as it is one if not only drug I have seen that works in the late stages of the disease.

The FDA- approved gold drug Auranofin inhibits novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) replication and attenuates inflammation in human cells


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.041228v1

I think with a good antioxidant (IV vitamin C) to deal with excess iron and a couple of transfusions it would help even the most critically ill.

HoosierDoc how many have you seen that needed blood transfusions do to hemoglobin levels?

Why is this only for critical cases? Inhibiting replication would be good anytime. Does it have side effects?

 

[nonobaddog]

Ignoring the question for now on whether china let this virus out "accidentally" or "intentionally".
Why were they playing with it in the first place?

 

[smokingman]

Why is this only for critical cases? Inhibiting replication would be good anytime. Does it have side effects?

It will help in non critical cases as well. Things like Chloroquine do not work well unless given early,it was the only reason I mentioned this worked no matter when it was given.

 

[smokingman]

Ignoring the question for now on whether china let this virus out "accidentally" or "intentionally".
Why were they playing with it in the first place?

Why was the NIH funding the research in Wuhan to test gain of function in corona viruses generally?

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...ng-for-bat-coronavirus-research-project-67486

 

[Ingomike]

Ignoring the question for now on whether china let this virus out "accidentally" or "intentionally".
Why were they playing with it in the first place?

The world has been studying this since mid 2000's. They are preemptively studying this among many viruses, how they work, and how to stop them. (I presume some may have evil motives.) I believe much US based research has been outsourced to China because the bleeding hearts have put the kibosh to live animal testing. This is why you read about CDC and universities "giving" the Chinese money for research at Wuhan.

 

[Ziggidy]

Most studies are pointing this out now. Any standard blood thinner like warfarin needs to be administered to covid-19 patients.

The general thing I have learned about this disease in the last 3 months is that is more a blood disease than typical pneumonia. It attacks red blood cells,bursting them and releasing iron. Causing a cytokine storm(inflammation) and clotting especially of the smaller blood vessels in the lungs. Many mention patients needed transfusions because they lack enough hemoglobin to transport oxygen effectively(thus the low oxygen levels). A ventilator will help with none of that. It also affects the brain and if someone stops breathing,then of course a ventilator is needed.

Still quite a bit to learn about it,but I think the science is getting to where we can have much higher survival rates.

I still believe we can prevent many patients from reaching the advanced stages of the china flu by allowing the administration of hydroxychloroquine. They need to be targeted and treated early on instead of waiting. It seems as though survival rate decreases as time increases.

We need to do what we can before the need for a vent arises.

 

[smokingman]

I still believe we can prevent many patients from reaching the advanced stages of the china flu by allowing the administration of hydroxychloroquine. They need to be targeted and treated early on instead of waiting. It seems as though survival rate decreases as time increases.

We need to do what we can before the need for a vent arises.

Agreed that we can slow it. I read an Italian study of Lupus patients and less than 3% of the over 8000 in Italy that where taking hydroxychloroquine even contracted covid-19.None where hospitalized and zero died even though they had lupus. The problem is most do not take it early and it is much less effective by the time someone actually tests positive or shows up at a hospital.

From what I have seen and read Auranofin is a better drug for most cases in the USA that show up only when they are ready to be admitted into the hospital.