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Coronavirus II
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About the British guy who said his model was wrong....turns out that is not what he even said.That is how the media misrepresented it though. Without sheltering in place he stands by his 500,000 deaths.
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
"This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged."
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
...or ask him about it yourself here.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928
Dispelling media myths since 3-26-2020. T-shirts are still at the pre-order price...while supplies last.
[FONT="]On the front page of the NY Times yesterday is a story that deeply distresses me. Across the US pharmacists are pushing back against physicians who are prescribing large amounts of hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, and azithromycin (HC&A) for themselves and their families—with refills. Doesn’t that make you proud? One of the few positive things we can say about this pandemic is that it gives us a precious opportunity to carry out proper double-blind, randomized controlled trials of therapeutics like HC&A. Because the numbers are so large, and growing so rapidly, such a trial could be carried out very fast. Enrolling large numbers quickly also allows us to rely on meaningful hard end-points, which avoids bundling a bunch of soft end-points into a composite, solely for the purpose of dredging statistical power out of smaller (and cheaper) trials. The hysteria surrounding HC&A is almost entirely anecdotal, propped up by a handful of tiny, unconvincing trials. Ask yourself this: if 98% of patients survive, and many have relatively minor illness that resolves in a week or two, what value is an anecdote in which patient X starts taking HC&A after a few days (when he’s feeling really lousy), then (lo and behold) he improves? Sacre bleu! And now the MDs featured in the New York Times are fanning the flames, nudging us along from ignorance to superstition. Almost 100 years ago (1928) Bertrand Russell said “What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite.”
[/FONT]https://columbiasurgery.org/news/covid-19-update-32620
Doctor at Columbia hospital in New York still doing daily updates.More at the source.
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
"This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged."
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
...or ask him about it yourself here.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928
Dispelling media myths since 3-26-2020. T-shirts are still at the pre-order price...while supplies last.
[FONT="]On the front page of the NY Times yesterday is a story that deeply distresses me. Across the US pharmacists are pushing back against physicians who are prescribing large amounts of hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, and azithromycin (HC&A) for themselves and their families—with refills. Doesn’t that make you proud? One of the few positive things we can say about this pandemic is that it gives us a precious opportunity to carry out proper double-blind, randomized controlled trials of therapeutics like HC&A. Because the numbers are so large, and growing so rapidly, such a trial could be carried out very fast. Enrolling large numbers quickly also allows us to rely on meaningful hard end-points, which avoids bundling a bunch of soft end-points into a composite, solely for the purpose of dredging statistical power out of smaller (and cheaper) trials. The hysteria surrounding HC&A is almost entirely anecdotal, propped up by a handful of tiny, unconvincing trials. Ask yourself this: if 98% of patients survive, and many have relatively minor illness that resolves in a week or two, what value is an anecdote in which patient X starts taking HC&A after a few days (when he’s feeling really lousy), then (lo and behold) he improves? Sacre bleu! And now the MDs featured in the New York Times are fanning the flames, nudging us along from ignorance to superstition. Almost 100 years ago (1928) Bertrand Russell said “What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite.”
[/FONT]https://columbiasurgery.org/news/covid-19-update-32620
Doctor at Columbia hospital in New York still doing daily updates.More at the source.
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In 2011 I had the privilege to play their State Police soccer team in NYC in the World Police and Fire Games. Gentlemen and AWESOME athletes. We got murdered!!! Haha
Er Nurse in Michigan.
Telling her story of how covid-19 is impacting her hospital. The local radio station posted it for all to see.
https://929thelake.com/er-nurse-shares-chilling-firsthand-account-of-covid-19-frontline/
Telling her story of how covid-19 is impacting her hospital. The local radio station posted it for all to see.
https://929thelake.com/er-nurse-shares-chilling-firsthand-account-of-covid-19-frontline/
That's exactly right...."IF" they will even see you.
Some one wanted to go to Immediate Care for SOB, fatigue and coughing and was told to call first. Immediate Care was not seeing patients and said to use IU's virtual screen. Did that and the screen was negaitve for corona. Asked what to do, sysptoms were progressing with SOB. They (virutal NP) sad call the primary in the morning and see what he wants to do. Called primary this morning and they are not seeing patients - no appointments; but did set up a telephone appointment for later in day.
Docter called and explained issues and said it sounds like "a" virus but not "the" virus but still stay home for 10 days and then he ordered cough syrup. Take tylenol, cough surup and rest.
This is not about me.....
I'll add to this. The doctor called from his home and cannot get a script out for the patient to give to work saying stay away for 10 days. The work is being nasty about it and said that is not acceptable, even though the doctor is willng to receive a call from them. They won't call. Nightmare.....
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I just spray everything down with disinfectant and let it sit. Throw away all of the packaging and wash my hands.
Sigh.[h=1]Video reveals lung damage in US coronavirus patient: 'People need to take this seriously'[/h]
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/covid-19-lung-damage-video/index.html
Dr. Keith Mortman, the chief of thoracic surgery at George Washington University Hospital. The Washington, D.C., hospital recently released a 3D video of the coronavirus patient's lungs.
The imagery shows extensive damage to the lungs of a generally healthy 59-year-old male with high blood pressure, Mortman said. Since becoming seriously ill, the patient requires a ventilator to help him breathe, but even on the highest setting, it's not enough. He also needs another machine that circulates and then oxygenates his blood, Mortman said.
The images suggest that the words to describe common symptoms -- coughing and shortness of breath -- can't really capture the impact of the virus on the body.
In some people, Mortman said, the damage will be irreversible -- making it imperative that Americans heed advice on social distancing and self-isolation.
"I want people to see this and understand what this can do," Mortman said. "People need to take this seriously.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/covid-19-lung-damage-video/index.html
Dr. Keith Mortman, the chief of thoracic surgery at George Washington University Hospital. The Washington, D.C., hospital recently released a 3D video of the coronavirus patient's lungs.
The imagery shows extensive damage to the lungs of a generally healthy 59-year-old male with high blood pressure, Mortman said. Since becoming seriously ill, the patient requires a ventilator to help him breathe, but even on the highest setting, it's not enough. He also needs another machine that circulates and then oxygenates his blood, Mortman said.
The images suggest that the words to describe common symptoms -- coughing and shortness of breath -- can't really capture the impact of the virus on the body.
In some people, Mortman said, the damage will be irreversible -- making it imperative that Americans heed advice on social distancing and self-isolation.
"I want people to see this and understand what this can do," Mortman said. "People need to take this seriously.
That's what I do. I bought four cans of Lysol a few weeks ago but now they are next to impossible to find. Ordered a couple of gallons of this, and I'll just put it in spray bottles. Says 4-5 weeks lead time, but I'm good til then. I checked manufacturer's website and it looks like it can be diluted up to 2 oz per gallon of water. I would probably not dilute that much.
Also, if you order $49 or more, try the coupon code ship49 to get free shipping.
https://www.cleanitsupply.com/p-647...virucidal-disinfectant-1-gallon-spe-01mn.aspx
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What is meant when they say "highest setting"? Highest setting of what?
Pressure of the ventilator. They are saying with the highest pressure they could use it was not enough. So they also put him on an ECMO machine as well,which oxygenates your blood outside of your body and then pumps it back in.
Many hospitals do not have the ability to do ECMO.
[FONT="]The number of U.S. hospitals offering ECMO has more than doubled from 108 in 2008 to 264 today(June 17,2019)
[/FONT]https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...stions-ecmo-can-part-life-support/1439787001/
What is ecmo?
https://uihc.org/health-topics/family-guide-ecmo
Ventilator?
https://www.thoracic.org/patients/patient-resources/resources/mechanical-ventilation.pdf
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I have dealt, worked with patients that have similar diagnosis and have worked with them while on ECMO. Familiar with both. The difficulty is in that diagnosis (ARDS) is the lungs become very stiff. WHen it becomes critical, ECMO is tried. By that time prognosis is not ususally good. It's not the flu that kills them, it is the symptoms of ARDS that is the reason for death. Using ECMO can prolong therapeutic time that could be benefivial for recovery
I don't doubt it for a minute. I have a friend who is an ER doc, and I also have many ER nurse friends from when I worked at the hospital. Not only is it that bad, but they have little or no PPE. They are wearing bandanas over their mouths and garbage bags for gowns.
I think the domain DeathClockCrier.com is available.
Wow! Rep sent...
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