Coronavirus II

[ditcherman]

Oh, that number will still go up dramatically. Testing is simply revealing what we couldn't see before. You have a hard time fighting what you can't see.

That said, light at the end of the tunnel means improvement in the future, not right now. That is not false hope at all.

The key to better understanding this situation is that so many people are looking backwards rather than looking forwards. If you looked forward two months ago, you would have seen that this disease had the possibility to become a nasty pandemic. If you look forward now, you will see that we are actively getting better at fighting this disease and will get past it.

I was there 2 months ago looking forward, seen this coming, so I’m with you. I understand how testing works and the numbers adjust. Trump was talking about lifting restrictions in 2 weeks. I believe that is false hope. Time will tell.

 

[dwh79]

I believe he said they were looking at regions to lift restrictions in not whole country. So Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota type places may loosen.

 

[Phase2]

I'd agree that two weeks is a bad idea strictly from getting the virus under control. I'm sure he is balancing other things, like long-term damage to the economy, public psychology, etc. He may also simply be doing the best he can and have to extend it. No one knows. I'm sure not even Trump at this point.

 

[nonobaddog]

I was there 2 months ago looking forward, seen this coming, so I’m with you. I understand how testing works and the numbers adjust. Trump was talking about lifting restrictions in 2 weeks. I believe that is false hope. Time will tell.

People are hoping all the staying home and social distancing will have an effect. It will take more days, maybe 10 to 14 to see. I think everybody is hoping it shows some slowing. If not then more measures are needed.

 

[Vigilant]

Not sure what you think is fake, the guy self medicated with pool chemicals and died.

The part about chloroquine and Trump, not the idiot.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Deaths are about days 9-10 of illness I believe. Hard to know when people were tested and when result came back. Death rate will lag the positive tests

 

[ultra...good]

I kinda cringe when people say all active duty, and veterans are "heroes".

The last time people were hero's because they were active duty was because they were drafted, and went into action. I respect all military and am truly grateful for their service. But hero is not just singing up and doing the job.

The term hero is thrown around so lightly these days that it has lost it's meaning. Bruce (Caitlynn) Jenner is considered a hero by many because he wears a dress in public. Contrast that with a fireman that runs into a burning building, or a police officer that runs towards the gunfire.

 

[Phase2]

New York converting Javits Center into 2,000-bed COVID-19 hospital

"It's just the flu" is officially dead and buried. When was the last time it was necessary to send USN hospital ships to an American city and converting massive convention centers to handle a single disease with the flu? That's not fear-mongering by the government or media. That's scrambling to handle the quantity of seriously ill.

 

[ditcherman]

People are hoping all the staying home and social distancing will have an effect. It will take more days, maybe 10 to 14 to see. I think everybody is hoping it shows some slowing. If not then more measures are needed.

I am completely confident we will see good results, if people social distance, whatever that may look like, in two weeks. That doesn’t mean we’ll be out if the woods and can all get back together right then, we’ll still need to be cautious. In two weeks we should see the numbers reach a peak, they’ll probably continue to grow until about then. So the numbers are peaked in two weeks, that’s a lot of cases still out there, that will be the reason we can’t just completely end the quarantine. I believe when someone says we’ll get back on track in two weeks, people will hear what they want.

 

[maxwelhse]

Or, apply the rules equally.

I have to comply with OSHA, IOSHA, EPA, IDEM, and other requirements.
But a company overseas, less burden for them.
Maybe they should have that "added" on to make it more competitivie.

That's one of the things I meant when I said subsidize. China shouldn't even be a UN member, never mind have most favored status at the WTO. They break our balls if we don't recycle plastic bottles in our break rooms at work, but those guys have literal chemical lakes just hanging out all over the place. That's what mineral mining / electronics manufacturing looks like in China...

Handing a bunch of communists our money and thinking that they would just spread the wealth into capitalism was a stupid idea. Time to stop. The nukes worked better. More subs! More silos!

 

[ditcherman]

https://youtu.be/PGDwF6YjF8M

Tom Cotton absolutely roasts dems for holding up aid.

Let me know if this crosses the political line and I’ll remove it.

 

[maxwelhse]

https://youtu.be/PGDwF6YjF8M

Tom Cotton absolutely roasts dems for holding up aid.

Let me know if this crosses the political line and I’ll remove it.

Good for him, but it won't matter. Orange Man Bad!

 

[Bennettjh]

I am completely confident we will see good results, if people social distance, whatever that may look like, in two weeks. That doesn’t mean we’ll be out if the woods and can all get back together right then, we’ll still need to be cautious. In two weeks we should see the numbers reach a peak, they’ll probably continue to grow until about then. So the numbers are peaked in two weeks, that’s a lot of cases still out there, that will be the reason we can’t just completely end the quarantine. I believe when someone says we’ll get back on track in two weeks, people will hear what they want.

 

[tbhausen]

 

[smokingman]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc...bins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html

CDC says coronavirus survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left



About that 3 days on surfaces.......

The pandemic is accelerating," Tedros said. "We need to attack the virus with aggressive and targeted tactics."
He noted that it took 67 days to confirm the first 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000 and four days for the 100,000 cases.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-chief-warns-coronavirus-pandemic-is-accelerating



Go figure. After 3+ months of saying it was just the Flu for 80%,now it is an issue. Hmmm wonder why?
Exponential spread,maybe the WHO should have talked more about that than trying to downplay what covid-19 is.


I do not think we are at even 1/100 of the peak in 2 weeks. It is difficult to wrap your head around RO from 3-6.7,but we will not reach the peak I do not think until the end of May possibly later,and that will just be the first wave not the follow ups.

 

[Ingomike]

That's one of the things I meant when I said subsidize. China shouldn't even be a UN member, never mind have most favored status at the WTO. They break our balls if we don't recycle plastic bottles in our break rooms at work, but those guys have literal chemical lakes just hanging out all over the place. That's what mineral mining / electronics manufacturing looks like in China...

Handing a bunch of communists our money and thinking that they would just spread the wealth into capitalism was a stupid idea. Time to stop. The nukes worked better. More subs! More silos!

Out of of sight out of mind. The sheeple have no idea that the crap they buy from China is made in such nasty environmental conditions and if you proved it they would bury their heads in the sand. You know, kinda like how they pretend Tesla's are emissions free because they don't have a tailpipe but conveniently forget the power plant emissions...

 

[Dead Duck]

I am completely confident we will see good results, if people social distance, whatever that may look like, in two weeks. That doesn’t mean we’ll be out if the woods and can all get back together right then, we’ll still need to be cautious. In two weeks we should see the numbers reach a peak, they’ll probably continue to grow until about then. So the numbers are peaked in two weeks, that’s a lot of cases still out there, that will be the reason we can’t just completely end the quarantine. I believe when someone says we’ll get back on track in two weeks, people will hear what they want.

Good One!

 

[ditcherman]

The pandemic is accelerating," Tedros said. "We need to attack the virus with aggressive and targeted tactics."
He noted that it took 67 days to confirm the first 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000 and four days for the 100,000 cases.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-chief-warns-coronavirus-pandemic-is-accelerating



Go figure. After 3+ months of saying it was just the Flu for 80%,now it is an issue. Hmmm wonder why?
Exponential spread,maybe the WHO should have talked more about that than trying to downplay what covid-19 is.


I do not think we are at even 1/100 of the peak in 2 weeks. It is difficult to wrap your head around RO from 3-6.7,but we will not reach the peak I do not think until the end of May possibly later,and that will just be the first wave not the follow ups.

You are correct about me not being able to wrap my head around an R0 of that magnitude. I thought we were 2.5 to 2.8.
Time will tell.
Luck favors the prepared, or something like that. Too bad I don’t believe in luck.
I’m wondering if the rapid increase in cases can simply be attributed to the fact that the virus reached new groups, a lot of ‘novel’ groups, within a relatively short period of time, and those new, individual groups that had not dealt with it yet had to get ‘up to speed’ in handling it. It seems every new country/culture has to relearn the method before containing. Goes right back to normalcy bias.
If my thoughts on the virus reaching new groups could be correct then the trajectory of those 100k numbers would seem a little less alarming.

 

[smokingman]

You are correct about me not being able to wrap my head around an R0 of that magnitude. I thought we were 2.5 to 2.8.
Time will tell.
Luck favors the prepared, or something like that. Too bad I don’t believe in luck.
I’m wondering if the rapid increase in cases can simply be attributed to the fact that the virus reached new groups, a lot of ‘novel’ groups, within a relatively short period of time, and those new, individual groups that had not dealt with it yet had to get ‘up to speed’ in handling it. It seems every new country/culture has to relearn the method before containing. Goes right back to normalcy bias.
If my thoughts on the virus reaching new groups could be correct then the trajectory of those 100k numbers would seem a little less alarming.

[FONT=&amp]the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.

[/FONT]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1


Also a new study on S and L types of covid-19.

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

 

[Cameramonkey]

Well, currently there is at least an effort to balance a response. Based on current variables (risk v. response), how many dead people would make the current response "worth it."

Put another way, if it could be shown that the current response saved X number of lives, what would you need that X to be?

And to put a finer point on it:

We lost 3.5% of the population to WWII. They estimate an ugly level of 6% for this outbreak worst case.

Which is worse? Losing 6% of the population, yet the world economy continues, more or less with a bit of a hiccup, allowing the survivors to continue to thrive and maintain a solid economy and good quality of life.

Or

Doing everything possible to prevent every last death, at the expense of society as we know it? What's the use saving a relative handful* of humans that will be dead within a decade or two anyway if those that are left are worse off in the long term via a Great Depression 2.0? Will our kids barely scraping by MAYBE recovering by the 3rd decade after suffering the entire way, come out of this OK? will they have to rally around WWIII to jump start the economy? I dont know. What I do know is this smacks of the socialist/communist type groupthink that is save every last soul you can, even if it means every last one of us is miserable because of the policy. Heaven forbid somebody dies to allow someone else to live a blessed life... Gee, that sounds like a familiar story. I wonder where I might have heard it before? I'm sure if I wait a couple more weeks my pastor might remind me of that story.

*I have multiple factors that label me as high risk for this virus. So I'm coming at this as somebody that if I caught it I'm screwed at best with reduced lung capacity, Dead at worst. I'm not one of those that have no skin in the game and are most likely to escape without a scratch like some.