Coronavirus II

[smokingman]

That would make some people very happy indeed. Especially if they got to play warlord as a consequence.

I do not think anyone would be happy at that point. Sure some might think playing warlord would be fun,right up to the point they realized it meant living in a war state with others constantly.

I do not think anyone wants the USA to end up like a 3rd world country.

The only way I see a true recovery is a return of the US manufacturing base. I have said it for well over 10 years now,you can not base an economy on financial services and restaurants. You have to actually make things.

 

[ditcherman]

This season CDC estimates that, as of mid-March, 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses.

Wuhan virus 8,024

Good thing we don't shut down business every flu season or we would be about like Somalia economically.

Be patient.
I’m sure it doesn’t need to be explained to you that there is a delay in deaths, we’re just getting this party started, etc?
Will you change your opinion when the beer bug claims 200k?

 

[ditcherman]

I do not think anyone would be happy at that point. Sure some might think playing warlord would be fun,right up to the point they realized it meant living in a war state with others constantly.

I do not think anyone wants the USA to end up like a 3rd world country.

The only way I see a true recovery is a return of the US manufacturing base. I have said it for well over 10 years now,you can not base an economy on financial services and restaurants. You have to actually make things.

Dad? Is that you?

Wise words.

 

[ditcherman]

I have updated this list before. This is becoming an issue faster than I though.
It is not just export restrictions,which are expanding daily.

It is not just supply line problems(take for example most of the EU and Great Britain not having egg cartons to get eggs to markets so the eggs are rotting).
The impact of shutdown or slowing of food processors due to covid-19.

Or even the solar minimum which still has states like North Dakota struggling to harvest last years corn from fields in April of 2020. Italy just wrote off 90-100% of the grape harvest of 2020 with the worst frost seen in over 60 years hitting already budding plants in the first few days of April 2020.

India the largest tea producer in the world is not harvesting anything and expects tea production to be down 90%,and the lack of care for plants may take years to recover from.

India also has reduced food oil production by over 50% due to a lack of imports of seeds to make oil from China. They export around 20% of the food oils for the world.

The price wars and demand/lack of demand issues,for example beef prices crashed driving many smaller producers out of business. Restaurant demand stopped,while house hold demand spiked,but if you can not get product to the stores because you lack the packaging and processing ability the price crashes.

The Dutch have over a million tons of potatoes left that normally would go to restaurants in Europe. Now they are trying to get them to consumers at the store level,but packaging is a serious issue. Most consumers do not want 23kg bags of potatoes.The price has spiked so low farmers and processors are going out of business. It is a large surplus with no way to get it where it needs to go. Many of the normal packaging plants in Europe are shut down,some from covid-19 others because of a lack of material from China.

Labor issues due to so many countries all over the world using migrant workers,that are now restricted from entering countries.

We have a real mess. Not one that can easily be fixed. I talked about supply system problems back in early February,and even mentioned just last week we had not felt the effects yet. Now it appears we are seeing some of those world wide.

It is not just food. It is hitting everything. Every impact sends a ripple effect out. Sometimes a lack of demand in say restaurants causes a spike in house hold demand,one our supply systems are failing to be able to adjust to.

In Great Britain they are already talking about setting up a rationing program like they did in world war 2. With the government taking over production,processors,and delivery of consumer staples.

Our just in time supply system broke. It really is that simple. Not just in the USA,but the world. You are most likely not going to starve. You do not need to panic. But if you have some food you prefer you may want to get more of it.

At this point I think the next 2-4 years will see huge changes. I understood months ago nationalism would rise all over the world. It has. What I did not see coming where individual states within countries fighting over supplies. Right now it is mainly medical supplies,but I think soon food may follow that trend(it has already started in Asia and is spreading into the EU). Take southern Italy made up of largely farmers,the military was called in because they stopped shipments of food to northern Italy.

What can we do to prepare for this? You can stock up on items you want. You can start a garden.I have a strong feeling gardening will be pushed nationally here in the USA very soon,it would be a good thing.

I could get into the politics of nations,states,or even political parties impact on the supply issues,but I am not going to. I am aware that it is happening though. It is not going to do any good to focus on it. It is a response to the problems,yes it can make them worse but it does nothing to argue over a symptom of the problem.

Prepare.
Be well,be safe,you are loved.


Adding this.

“Senior Leadership Brief COVID-19” and dated April 2, 2020, bears the seals of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services. It contains a brief description of findings made by the Food Supply Chain Task Force on the availability of PPE.
Such equipment has been in short supply in hospitals, where doctors and nurses are routinely exposed to high amounts of coronavirus. The food industry also relies on a variety of protective equipment for food safety.
The April 2 briefing warns that the task force had completed an analysis and there could be “commodity impacts if current PPE inventory is exhausted.” There would be shortages of milk within 24 hours and of fresh fruits and vegetables “within several days.” The document estimates that “meat, poultry, seafood, and processed eggs” would become scarce within a period of two to four weeks, while “dry goods and processed foods inventories” — that is, the non-perishables that are pantry staples — could become scarce “as soon as four weeks” after face masks and gloves run out across the food supply chain.

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-...tages-says-government-document-223308504.html
https://www.dhs.gov/taxonomy/term/3486/all/feed

North Dakota corn harvest was only 43% complete as of Dec, and I would bet not much progress has been made since. That probably looks like nearly 0% progress because around here we may have had 20% left of ‘18 that just did get harvested before the ‘19 spring rains prevented planting. And it looked like about 50%!

The good news is we don’t really need that corn.
Quite a few ethanol plants are not receiving uncontracted bushels at this time. As far as I know this is unprecedented. This is a major go-to market for many around here. This will be a serious blow if the beer bug ramifications linger, which I have no doubt will.
Many times farmers think they’re immune, or at least on a different cycle than the general economy, but this is widespread across everything.

ETA; start a garden or join a co-op! Get fresh, local, responsibly grown (you get to choose what that is) without paying the middle man!

 

[KittySlayer]

. Our just in time supply system broke. It really is that simple. Not just in the USA,but the world. You are most likely not going to starve. You do not need to panic. But if you have some food you prefer you may want to get more of it.

I do not believe the JIT system broke, it worked exactly as designed. It was the selection of a JIT system that was the mistake. The JIT system should never have been used in critical areas such as food, medical, law enforcement, military defense, etc. If a widget production line shuts down who cares? If medical personnel lack PPE something is wrong and someone (a person) made a poor decision.

 

[nra4ever]

US professor invents open source ventilator that can be build from Home Depot parts for $125

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=uZRCh_1586065109

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

This season CDC estimates that, as of mid-March, 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses.

Wuhan virus 8,024

Good thing we don't shut down business every flu season or we would be about like Somalia economically.

After this one plays out and all the damage is done and assessed, it will be interesting to see how we respond to future epidemics and pandemics. I could see it going either way.

 

[Rookie]

I do not believe the JIT system broke, it worked exactly as designed. It was the selection of a JIT system that was the mistake. The JIT system should never have been used in critical areas such as food, medical, law enforcement, military defense, etc. If a widget production line shuts down who cares? If medical personnel lack PPE something is wrong and someone (a person) made a poor decision.

I think part of the problem is inventory tax. If hospitals had warehouses full of inventory in case of emergency, they would be paying for them every year which is why just in time makes financial sense.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I think part of the problem is inventory tax. If hospitals had warehouses full of inventory in case of emergency, they would be paying for them every year which is why just in time makes financial sense.

How did ObamaCare’s medical device tax affect all of this? Is that still in effect?

 

[Rookie]

No idea. I'm not entirely positive how inventory taxes work, so I could be wrong.

 

[foszoe]

How do we decide what is essential?
How do we decide the quantities of essentials that are needed?
Who decides where the essentials are stored?
Who pays for it?
Who decides how they are distributed in times of need?
Are the above questions answered by households, towns, cities, counties, states, the federal government?

IF we make it through the above questions and have all the essentials we need, will we allow a company to serve the needs of other countries by building factories closer to their foreign customers to return value to their shareholders here in the US?

What do we expect of the companies that produced them?
Are they to carry the plants and equipment on their books until the next time they are needed?
Do they deserve compensation for doing so, or will that be the cost of doing business in the US?
If we chose the wrong quantity of essentials, who is responsible, households, towns, cities, counties, states, federal government?

will we lay claim to the output of the company's foreign factories until our needs are met?
What consequences for taking such actions are we willing to accept?

We need to bring those laws back.
We need to start fining and yes maybe even prosecuting companies that go outside of the U.S. to produce some essential things after this. I think for sure there needs to be a threshold of how much we allow any company to import from China of their goods. After they reach say 20% imported we start leveling massive fines on them. If they hit 40% we start prosecuting.
This is clearly a matter of national security, with Any foreign nation having that much power over the U.S.
But especially China who IS our enemy, not our friend. We call them our friend because we have like a cold war with them like we did the Soviets. But the Chinese are pieces of ****. I've been saying this way before the Corona

 

[smokingman]

How do we decide what is essential?
How do we decide the quantities of essentials that are needed?
Who decides where the essentials are stored?
Who pays for it?
Who decides how they are distributed in times of need?
Are the above questions answered by households, towns, cities, counties, states, the federal government?

IF we make it through the above questions and have all the essentials we need, will we allow a company to serve the needs of other countries by building factories closer to their foreign customers to return value to their shareholders here in the US?

What do we expect of the companies that produced them?
Are they to carry the plants and equipment on their books until the next time they are needed?
Do they deserve compensation for doing so, or will that be the cost of doing business in the US?
If we chose the wrong quantity of essentials, who is responsible, households, towns, cities, counties, states, federal government?

will we lay claim to the output of the company's foreign factories until our needs are met?
What consequences for taking such actions are we willing to accept?

We know quite a bit about what we need.Using it to bring production of those things back to the USA is more the issue.
This list does not include things like autos or construction equipment,or most things that are needed to bring production back to the USA.

We are going to need something like the cold war era civil defense program to be more prepared in the future. I also remember things like ending our federal grain reserve program in 1996...add it to idiotic mistakes made.

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/...rastructure_Workforce_Version_2.0_Updated.pdf

 

[ghitch75]

question...are they saving blood samples from everyone that dies to see if they did die from it????......

 

[Sylvain]

Have you guys seen more people wearing masks in public, at the grocery stores, etc?

 

[smokingman]

Have you guys seen more people wearing masks in public, at the grocery stores, etc?

I have worn one in public for around 7 weeks now. I have been in MN for a little over 2 weeks now. Decided to leave the Geist Reservoir area based on how people where reacting to this and made plans to do so for a couple weeks before leaving. I left before Indiana had locked down,when I left it was just California,Washington state,and parts of New York state in locked down(stay at home orders).

In Duluth MN yesterday it was around 50% wearing them. Older people much more so than young people. It was my first time in public since arriving here.

 

[ditcherman]

They'd rather see the plane crash and burn even if they would die too than to see the other side win.
I look at all of us as Americans UNTIL someone is actively trying to undermine my country. Then they are an enemy.
Liberals look at anyone who disagrees with them and supports trump as their enemy from the get go. They could give a crap less about America. This tells me where they rank.

Haven't had time to listen to all of it but I will.
I DO NOT want to take this into forbidden territory, but I think we can have a discussion about "undermine my country".
I say forget the polarization as much as is possible. You say we're all Americans, but then jump right into separation by politics, instead of giving someone the benefit of the doubt that they mean the best for this country, but from a whole different view, immediately dividing and polarizing with no hope of reconciliation.
I guess my question is, what, or who is undermining the country? I think it's the big govt types, the enormous behemoth "we've" created. So is trying to create a better place, as our forefathers possibly expected, warranted and even a good thing?

Edited to change phraseology from a big scary word even though I was only quoting someone else.

 

[BugI02]

I do not think anyone would be happy at that point. Sure some might think playing warlord would be fun,right up to the point they realized it meant living in a war state with others constantly.

I do not think anyone wants the USA to end up like a 3rd world country.

The only way I see a true recovery is a return of the US manufacturing base. I have said it for well over 10 years now,you can not base an economy on financial services and restaurants. You have to actually make things.

This^^^ As I've been saying for quite some time, you cannot remain a first rate military power, nor retain much of a technological edge, if other countries are making your steel and your aluminum, your semiconductor chips and control your access to strategic materials like rare earth elements

 

[BugI02]

After this one plays out and all the damage is done and assessed, it will be interesting to see how we respond to future epidemics and pandemics. I could see it going either way.

I kind of favor nuking any source of repeat major outbreaks or pandemics from orbit, just to be sure (slightly purplish)

 

[Trigger Time]

Have you guys seen more people wearing masks in public, at the grocery stores, etc?

I did the other day when I had go go out yes. First time I had seen so many masks. I've been wearing mine for a while if I'm going inside somewhere. If I'm outside I do not. But I still use other precautions.
I use sanitizer, lysol wipes, gloves pumping gas and I THROW THEM IN THE TRASH BECAUSE I'M NOT A SCUMBAG, spray lysol, spray steramine, bleach solution, constant handwashing.
I also have a decontamination pan I step in with my shoes before coming inside, & I spray down my clothes or immediately put them in the washer. I should start shampooing my hair at minimum but shower after any outside excursions from now on too but I also wear a hat and spray it down. You can never be too safe when you're talking about life or death and passing it to others.
I'm responsible for getting supplies for afew elderly others not in my household. I've volunteered to do this to keep them isolated at home. I have my own risks if I get this but I'm taking every other precaution I can and I'm not making daily trips out in public. It's very limited.

 

[Trigger Time]

I have worn one in public for around 7 weeks now. I have been in MN for a little over 2 weeks now. Decided to leave the Geist Reservoir area based on how people where reacting to this and made plans to do so for a couple weeks before leaving. I left before Indiana had locked down,when I left it was just California,Washington state,and parts of New York state in locked down(stay at home orders).

In Duluth MN yesterday it was around 50% wearing them. Older people much more so than young people. It was my first time in public since arriving here.

Do you feel your chances there are better than Indiana for survival if society collapses? As your reasoning for leaving. I'm assuming that had been part of your "bug out" plans for years and wasn't just a hastily picked destination