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  • CarmelHP

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    Nickels are not made of silver (except 1942-45, 35% silver), they're mostly copper (75%) with 25% nickel giving the color and name.

    I kinda see it like this. If an ounce of silver is $10 (hypothetically) Then a dime is a dollar a nickle is 50 cents a quarter is $2.50 and so on.
     

    Chefcook

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    Cars, trucks, houses, rent, retail clothing prices, commercial real estate, commercial rent.

    Here is an interesting article to consider, it explains the overall concept: CAN DEFLATION BE PREVENTED?

    Here is a timely article, posted by Reuters 2 hours ago:
    U.S. would need more borrowing if deflation sets in: Summers | Reuters

    Deflation is briefly mentioned as a possibility in this article, posted in the Washington Post today: The Ticker - Summers: White House Stimulus Action May Have Stabilized Consumer Spending - Economy Watch *

    News from India suggests that inflation fears are overblown and deflation is likely: Goodbye inflation, hello deflation!

    The BUSINESS STANDARD predicts deflation: Inflation slips to 2.43%, experts predict deflation

    Ireland's Irish Times says deflation is already starting: Deflation of 1.7% driven by interest, rent and clothing - The Irish Times - Fri, Mar 13, 2009

    News from Switzerland saying that the Swiss are selling off currency to try to prevent deflation: EUobserver

    And another from Switzerland saying deflation is starting: Swiss Central Bank Sounds Deflation Alarm, Targets Franc - DowJonesNewswires - Onet.pl Biznes - 12.03.2009

    Forbes reports the European Central Bank is not predicting deflation but is saying that prices are dropping: ECB's Mersch sees disinflation in '09, no deflation - Forbes.com

    News show that China is seeing both CPI and PPI dropping, but is not yet claiming full deflation: Epoch Times - China’s CPI and PPI Drop Together in February

    In London they are saying that inflation fears are likely overblown and deflation is possible can could prolong the recession: Inflation expectations fall to near 4-year low | Reuters

    And here in the good old USA a warning that deflation could derail any progress toward a recover: The Associated Press: Obama adviser says 'excess of fear' must be broken


    Like I said, your economic model is based on an economy that exists largely in a vacuum without any significant international play. These articles above, from every part of the globe show that the economies are all in trouble and that deflation is a real risk. I'm just pointing out that while HYPER INFLATION fears are common, there is another real risk.



    Again, this is a great example of a very isolated economy. Nazi Germany did not effectively participate in world trade, it traded largely with a few nations that it considered allies of its regime and existed in a vacuum within those economies. Look at the economy of Italy at the same time. Same problem. Italy was one of the few trading nations with Germany. I believe you are actually reinforcing my point that we have to look at the world economy because your example shows that Germany and its trading partners suffered similar fates.


    I had this discussion with my brother the other day. He believes that we are going to have deflation that things are going to get really cheap but that a dollar will be very hard to come by. Kinda like in the first depression.

    I believe in the long run the dollar is going to be worthless and that it would be prudent to invest in things that will retain value like food, water, ammo and precious metals. basically spending your dollars while they still have value..

    If you go with my prediction and I am wrong the worst case scenario is that you will get stuck eating a lot of freeze dried food and get to put in some extra range time...

    If you do it his way the worst case scenario is your family will starve to death while you sit on a pile of worthless paper. The upside of this scenario is that you will always have something to wipe your azz with...

    In my lifetime I have never seen silver or gold fall to any level where I couldn't later recoup my paper money. In weighing these these options its better to be safe than sorry.

    My actual belief is that it will be both. Money is going to get hard to come by, but it is also going to become worthless, just my :twocents:...
     

    jedi

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    Thanks all for your great post on INFLATION/MEGA-INFLATION/DEFALTION.
    Sorry if I am rude on this one but can we stick to the OP.

    I need help in getting rid of my paper money and converting it to metals.
    From what I gather there are 3 levels of metals I should look into.

    1) Silver coins (pre-????) to use to trade for other goods.
    2) Gold goins (non-rare) to keep your "wealth" safe during these times when the paper currency is all over the place.
    3) Gold bullion ???

    How about sources for these items?
    What is current market value?
    Someone mentioned ebay?


    Like ChefCook said in not so many words. GOLD IS GOLD. Be it Uncle Sam, The Repbulic of BO, Fidel Castro's Son government, New World Order, The Son's of Liberty government, etc.. at the end of the day whatever givernment we end up with or comes they WILL accept gold/silver once things settle down. Now the good old american green back does not look like it will stay for long thanks to the idiots on the hill. I want some piece of mind and to ensure that I have something that *IS* valued by the world. That is metals and not paper or some electronic file saying Ihave so much in my profolio.
     
    Last edited:

    Chefcook

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    Thanks all for your great post on INFLATION/MEGA-INFLATION/DEFALTION.
    Sorry if I am rude on this one but can we stick to the OP.

    I need help in getting rid of my paper money and converting it to metals.
    From what I gather there are 3 levels of metals I should look into.

    1) Silver coins (pre-????) to use to trade for other goods.
    2) Gold goins (non-rare) to keep your "wealth" safe during these times when the paper currency is all over the place.
    3) Gold bullion ???

    How about sources for these items?
    What is current market value?
    Someone mentioned ebay?


    Silver coins 1964 or before are 90% pure silver
    Silver Coins 1964 to 1968 are 80% pure silver
    Silver is about 13 bucks a troy ounce that's 31. something something grams. As a rule of thumb one dollar in US silver 90% pure silver is equivalent to 1 ounce...
     

    CarmelHP

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    Carmel
    Silver Coins 1964 to 1968 are 80% pure silver

    Incorrect, 1965 to 1968 HALF DOLLARS were 40% silver. No other fractional currency 1965 to 1968 had any silver, all were and are cupro-nickel except for cents.
    As a rule of thumb one dollar in US silver 90% pure silver is equivalent to 1 ounce...

    Not quite, about .80 ounces of silver per dollar of silver coinage (may be where you got the 80% figure). That fifth of an ounce may not seem significant to you, but if I were trading with you I sure would.

    Like ChefCook said in not so many words. GOLD IS GOLD. Be it Uncle Sam, The Repbulic of BO, Fidel Castro's Son government, New World Order, The Son's of Liberty government, etc..

    Right now, all bullion coins from retail outlets seem to be selling at an abnormally high premium and supplies are short. E-bay is a good source as you can decide what you're willing to bid and pick up some bargains. At one time Krugerrands were selling at below spot prices because of the apartheid stigma but generally all will trade over spot these days. U.S. and Canadian coins will generally have a somewhat higher premium than others.
     
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    Chefcook

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    Incorrect, 1965 to 1968 HALF DOLLARS were 40% silver. No other fractional currency 1965 to 1968 had any silver, all were and are cupro-nickel except for cents.


    Not quite, about .80 ounces of silver per dollar of silver coinage (may be where you got the 80% figure). That fifth of an ounce may not seem significant to you, but if I were trading with you I sure would.



    Right now, all bullion coins from retail outlets seem to be selling at an abnormally high premium and supplies are short. E-bay is a good source as you can decide what you're willing to bid and pick up some bargains. At one time Krugerrands were selling at below spot prices because of the apartheid stigma but generally all will trade over spot these days. U.S. and Canadian coins will generally have a somewhat higher premium than others.


    80% was a typo sorry. The actual weight of one dollar in silver coin 1964 is 25 grams. Yes 3 grams shy of an ounce. I meant as a rule of thumb it was a generalization as in about an ounce,not an exact measurement... For exact measurement precious metals are measured in troy ounces one troy ounce is 31.1034768 ounces... If you are to use exact measurements make sure any older coin (like 1880 or early 1900's) you purchase is by weight not denomination as they have a lot of weight loss due to wear. One dollar in 1880 quarters may only weigh 18 or 20 grams...

    I look at it like this. Right now silver is $13.32 an ounce. As silver seems to hover around the $13 dollar mark. I try to buy pre 1964 silver coin for $10 on the $1
     
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    Chefcook

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    Yes, but that is total weight, not silver weight, silver weight is .90 x 25g=22.5g or .79 avoirdupois ounces or .72 troy ounces.


    Like I added to my last post...Right now silver is $13.32 an ounce. As silver seems to hover around the $13 dollar mark. I try to buy pre 1964 silver coin for $10 on the $1, this is actually hard to do and I sometimes pay as much as $55 or $56 for a roll of dimes. I may be getting shorted a little bit. But its hard to find it any cheaper than that...The security and preparedness is worth the small loss...
     

    csaws

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    I'm not saying that anyone I know had gold. However, what they bought was paid for with cash and the name and address on the receipt was faked. Couple of reasons, government confiscation being one of them. The other would be robbery if the true name or address was located with the quantity sold.

    For trade, "junk" silver is a good choice. That is 90% silver coins from 1965 and earlier. They are easily identifiable as legit.

    However, you can't eat gold. Make sure you have food, supplies, etc. it place before putting money into precious metals.

    Does this include Nickels, or are Nickels this old actually nickel?
     

    csaws

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    So are old nickels (pre 1964) worth keeping or not? I have found two older than 1964 in the last two days. Everytime I find pre 64 coins I keep them but if it isn't worthwhile to keep these I will put them in the nickel and penny jar.
     

    DiamProducer

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    Someone mentioned earlier that an ounce is 28 grams. This is not true when you're talking about Troy Ounce which precious metal is measured in Troy Ounces. 1 Troy Oz= 31.1 I know this is not a huge difference, but if you're planning on paying for something based on the weight in grams compared to the Oz price figure it out at 31.1g=1 oz
     

    CarmelHP

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    So are old nickels (pre 1964) worth keeping or not? I have found two older than 1964 in the last two days. Everytime I find pre 64 coins I keep them but if it isn't worthwhile to keep these I will put them in the
    nickel and penny jar.

    There is no difference in metal content between pre-'65 and post-'64 nickels. They are 75% copper and 25% nickel. Early last year the metal value neared 8 cents but I believe they are under 5 cents in metal value now after the commodities collapse.
     
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    Saqagawea dollars are fairly plentiful and not very vaulable..worth a dollar.... maybe a roll of these and some old junk gold jewelry would be a good thing to add to ones BOB...
     

    CarmelHP

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    As for gold, you try to fund British or Commonwealth gold sovereigns which are [SIZE=-1].2354 troy ounce of gold content, or Russian/Soviet gold chervonetz's which are [/SIZE][SIZE=-1].2489 troy ounce gold content. They can sometimes be gotten on E-bay at around spot.
    [/SIZE]
     

    Indy317

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    I would stay away from gold and focus more on older US coins that contained silver. Yea, you will have to buy more and the coins will take up more space, but it will be easier to buy stuff with silver coins than gold coins. If you must have gold coins, get coins in the 1/10th of an ounce size (small gold coins).
     

    CarmelHP

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    The problem with one-tenth ounce gold bullion is that the seigniorage on the coins is almost the same as the larger coins raising the per ounce cost of buying at lower fractional ounces. One ounce coins can be cut down if you need fractional amounts, It's better to buy more than to buy less so you can have fractional ounce gold coins. That's why the Brit and Russian gold coins can be a good deal. Fractional ounces but without the mint seigniorage.
     

    CarmelHP

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    Where is that deflation? They keep talking about it but it never seems to get here. The great deflation during the depression was swift. Why aren't we seeing it if it's a danger. We're in for an Obama induced inflationary roller-coaster. Hang on to your hats and your gold and silver.



    Consumer prices rise by largest amount in 7 months




    WASHINGTON – Consumer prices rose in February by the largest amount in seven months as gasoline prices surged again and clothing costs jumped the most in nearly two decades.
    Despite the February blip, the recession was expected to dampen any inflation pressures for at least the rest of this year.
    The Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer inflation rose 0.4 percent in February, the biggest one-month jump since a 0.7 percent rise in July. Two-thirds of last month's increase, which was slightly more than analysts expected, reflected a big jump in gasoline pump prices.
    Meanwhile, the deficit in the broadest measure of U.S. trade fell sharply in 2008 for the second consecutive year, due partly to a larger surplus in services trade. Economists expect the improvement in the U.S. current account to continue this year, but mostly due to rapid falls in imports as the recession cuts into domestic consumers' buying power. Exports also are falling as the global economy slows, eliminating what had been a crucial source of sales for U.S. manufacturers early last year.
    Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2 percent in February, also slightly higher than the 0.1 percent rise economists expected.
    The Federal Reserve, which was wrapping up a two-day meeting on Wednesday, was expected to keep a key interest rate at a record low near zero as Fed officials continue to believe that the biggest problems at present are the deep recession and severe financial crisis, not inflation.
    Indeed, Fed officials have expressed concerns about the opposite problem, that a deepening recession and prolonged housing slump could push the country into a period of deflation, something not experienced in the U.S. since the Great Depression.
    Falling prices may sound good to consumers, but can actually make a recession even worse by dragging down Americans' wages, and clobbering already-stricken home and stock prices. Dropping prices already are hurting businesses' profits, forcing them to slice capital investments and lay off workers.
    Over the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen just 0.2 percent. That was up slightly from a reading of zero for the 12 months ending in January, which had been the smallest annual change in more than a half-century.
    Gas prices surged 8.3 percent last month after a 6 percent rise in January. Both gains came after several months of huge declines in prices at the pump.
    Total energy costs rose 3.3 percent in February, almost double the 1.7 percent January rise. But energy prices are still down 18.5 percent from a year ago. Home heating oil and natural gas prices both fell in February.
    Clothing costs shot up 1.3 percent in February, the biggest one-month rise since a 1.5 percent increase in March 1990. The gain likely reflected a rebound from steep discounts offered in January as retailers were clearing store shelves after the worst holiday season in decades.
    Food costs dipped 0.1 percent last month but are still up 4.7 percent over the past year. Prices for meat and dairy products fell, while fruits and vegetables rose, according to the Labor Department report.
    Airline fares fell 2.6 percent last month, the biggest drop since November, but new car prices rose 0.8 percent.
    Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the current account deficit, which includes investment flows and other transfers as well as trade, dropped 7.9 percent to $673.3 billion in 2008 from $731.2 billion in 2007.
    The U.S. finances the deficit by borrowing from foreigners, so a smaller deficit reduces the need for such borrowing. The current account deficit increased for five straight years before falling slightly in 2007.
    The report on consumer prices followed a report Tuesday that inflation at the wholesale level rose a slight 0.1 percent in February.
    Only last summer, officials at the Fed had started to worry that a surge in energy costs could spread to other areas of the economy and boost inflation to unacceptable levels. But after the financial crisis struck in the fall, the Fed switched signals and is now aggressively fighting a deepening recession.
    Inflation is not expected be a problem for some time to come given the prolonged recession, which is already the longest downturn in a quarter-century.
     

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