Who wants to make a prediction?

[haldir]

I still go back to this. How bad is a nuke explosion? Average, modern, deployable nuke.

People used to sit in Vegas and watch them detonated upstream. Vegas is inhabitable; always has been.

Some Japanese near the blasts lived long perhaps even normal lives.

Aside from heavily populated areas, where immediate blast and radiation would kill instantly and over weeks/months, are the long-term effects of those survivors and nearby locales understood or overhyped?

I think on this occasion I will choose the sharp stick in the eye for once...

 

[ATF Consumer]

Aside from heavily populated areas, where immediate blast and radiation would kill instantly and over weeks/months, are the long-term effects of those survivors and nearby locales understood or overhyped?

That's a really good question...to find a reliable statistic that was not conducted by anyone with a bias seems to be the challenge.

 

[Dryden]

The United Nations snubbing of Benjamin Netanyahu has only confirmed to the Israelis that they are alone. They will do whatever it takes to survive. They realize they have no friends or allies anymore... it's up to them to assure their own safety.
They'll nuke Iran within weeks.

 

[Boilers]

That's a really good question...to find a reliable statistic that was not conducted by anyone with a bias seems to be the challenge.

One of the reasons I always wondered is my dad was close enough for the first atomic bomb to heave his ship out of the water. Later one of his doctors said he imagined the radiation from that blast could be all the basis needed for explaining his cancers, stating it would dwarf most people's radiation exposures. However, in the end, he lived to 83 and did not die from cancer(s).

So, if he felt the blast, was close enough for a good dose of radiation and yet still beat the life expectancy, how bad could it have been?

Yes, I know there are a few mitigating circumstances.

1. This is anecdotal. He could have been the luckiest guy out of his crew. I have no idea.
2. Those atomic bombs back then were creampuffs to today CAPABILITIES. But I ask, what size bomb would be detonated TODAY? Not the Russian Tsar Bomba. That won't likely be used anywhere.
3. Not sure of his distance, but it was close enough to lift the ship.

 

[Boilers]

The United Nations snubbing of Benjamin Netanyahu has only confirmed to the Israelis that they are alone. They will do whatever it takes to survive. They realize they have no friends or allies anymore... it's up to them to assure their own safety.
They'll nuke Iran within weeks.

Let me get this straight.

You predict that before the end of the year Israel will attack Iran with nuclear weapons OVERTLY?

 

[Chefcook]

If Israel is backed into a corner and left with no other option. They will burn it all down and fight to the last life, taking as many of their enemy's with them as possible.

 

[LEaSH]

Look for Iran to be destabilized internally.
It might be the only way to avoid a blowout. It's already halfway there.

 

[CarmelHP]

...
Sooner of later I see Israel turning Syria, Libya, and Iran into a big glass bowl and having the world's biggest Ice cream social.
...

I'm not sure this is a bad thing in the long term.

 

[JustGone]

I still go back to this. How bad is a nuke explosion? Average, modern, deployable nuke.

People used to sit in Vegas and watch them detonated upstream. Vegas is inhabitable; always has been.

Some Japanese near the blasts lived long perhaps even normal lives.

Aside from heavily populated areas, where immediate blast and radiation would kill instantly and over weeks/months, are the long-term effects of those survivors and nearby locales understood or overhyped?

Look up the Tsar Bomba, and it was in 1961 and they toned it's potential yield down by half. So if they could do that in 1961 I wonder how powerful they are today?

Tsar Bomba - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Blue Tile Spook]

I believe Israel will take out Iran's nuke capability, just as they did in Iraq and see no huge backlash.
Sure you'll see a call for Jihad, but only small factions of the radicals will actually attempt any form of attack.
We may see increase skirmishes with Hezbollah and Hamas, but nothing more than we've seen in the past.

ATF pretty much took the words out of my mouth.

Conventional attack on Iran by Israel.
Mealy-mouth response from Iran.
Attack will happen before the new year.

 

[techres]

I don't think Israel will overtly attack Iran.
Perhaps sabotage their program clandestinely.
But no jets/bombs/missiles/assassinations.

And I think Iran will get nuclear weapons. Only a matter of time.

I don't think Iran will use a nuclear device, again, overtly. That is - strap it to a missile. If they do anything it will be like a terrorist event.

I think Iran is a test that Russia and China are using to see how the USA (re)acts, far more than what Israel will do.

^ This.

As much as we would wish it to be different. The hand Israel has to play is crappy bad:

• They can conventional bomb and risk a war, or more likely a cut off of money and arms from Obama and the Dem Congress. In this scenario they will only buy time, nothing more.
• They can bomb with nukes and garantee a war, garantee to be financially and militarily alone, and they still are likely only buying time - even if far more time.
• They can enter a MAD situation with the moral high ground, demand more military assistance and work for the best covertly.

With this administration, I am guessing they will go option 3.

 

[The Meach]

Idk, I'm getting my WWIII shivers. I'm 21, so I'm gonna start enjoying myself before my selective service number gets called...

 

[2ADMNLOVER]

Attack will happen before the new year.

I'm going with this , what happens after is anybodies' guess .

 

[CarmelHP]

Look up the Tsar Bomba, and it was in 1961 and they toned it's potential yield down by half. So if they could do that in 1961 I wonder how powerful they are today?

Tsar Bomba - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Physics hasn't changed and that bomb was designed as a spectacular showpiece by a nuclear program with lots of experience and very sophisticated. My guess is that Iran is working on a fission bomb like the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs, less yield but much dirtier and easier to build a reliable device. Power yield is not the main object of today's bomb making by major powers. A low yield but dirty fission bomb would be enough to do the job in Israel though. A retaliatory strike by Israeli land and sub based missiles is almost guaranteed.

 

[ruger17hmr]

Iran and its nuclear ambition could be used to expand the current regional conflict(Iraq and Afghanistan) into the wide spread worldwide conflict. Economic turmoil that has humbled the world is the key that will unleash the horrible event, unless the course of economic devastation reverses itself.

Hyperinflationary policy, that has been adopted by the economic powers of the world as the solution to ailing economy, has lessened the chance of total collapse. The latest batch of economic data shows the glimmer of hope in economic recovery. However, there is no gurantee that we will be completely out of the woods. The worldwide recovery effort in fact can fail. I'm not sure if the world can avoid the Great Depression that will surely usher in if the current policy fails to reignite the economy.

It is not far fatched to assume that the world, faced with the crippling wide spread Depression, will be desparate enough to adopt another desparate solution, a war. This is where Iran and Israel come into the play. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran offers something unique to the region, a nuclear capability. If unchecked, it will become a nuclear power within next 6 months, which Israel absolutely will not allow.
It does not take Washington Thinktank to see that all the right ingredient for WWIII is currently present.

Iran and Israel standoff is just an another option that is on the table. Whether or not, it becomes an actual policy will be decided on the condition of economic recovery effort.

It isn't much different from how North Korean nuclear program was/is handled by the relating super powers. There was an issue of Taiwan's sovereignty about the time N.Korea's nuclear issue arose. China was determined to take over Taiwan peacefully and/or militarily. It was flexing its military muscles to test the US resolve. US resolve was that, if needed, WWIII will not be ruled out. The behind the curtain negotiation was made, reaching the resolution in which N.Korea will be allowed to become a Nuclear power in exchange for China cease any attempts to overtake Taiwan militarilly.

Just my humble opinion.

 

[JR50]

Chill

Israel won't attack. They're making too much noise. They were silent before taking out the reactor in Iraq and the reactor under construction later in Syria. They want somebody else to handle it through sanctions or diplomatic means.

Maybe it's a thing of..."believe me, I've experienced it and I don't want to see you follow my path and make the same mistakes I did as a child", big brother or father style of control.

That was no mistake using the bombs to avoid an invasion of Japan.

 

[printcraft]

Chill

............

That was no mistake using the bombs to avoid an invasion of Japan.

+1

Those "2" bombs killed about 80,000 - 90,000 combined.
And the threat of more on the way stopped that war.

How many would have died in a mainland Japanese invasion with conventional forces?
I would bet they would have poured triple that number at least
into the meat grinder trying to pull that one out. Iwo Jima comes to mind.
Both sides would have paid heavily.

 

[rambone]

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9AMtUeyDP0[/ame]

 

[SavageEagle]

I don't see Israel attacking this year. Not without being provoked. Cmon, it's not possible for them to take out Iran Nuke program even with all the bunker busters in OUR arsenal. Not unless they could get teams inside the facility but that's a BIG if. Israel knows they lost the political clout with obamatard. They know they can't count on him. They knew it the day he was elected.

No, they aren't going to attack unless they can get the bombs in the open, not prepared to launch.

Besides, if they START the war, you can bet that their problems won't be coming from Russia or China, but Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Pakistan, etc. They won't just sit back and watch Israel attack Iran and level the Country.

by Nov 5th they will be dropping bombs over there..there is my prediction

Remember remember the fifth of November, the Gunpowder, Treason and Plot...

 

[eliteimagery]

First the UN wants them to stop building settlements...then a short range test missle from Iran... I say 30 Days...max