Trump 2024 — The second term

[DadSmith]

VA POTUS 2024 Memo

coefficient.org

 

[DadSmith]

It means that the people who in the past have stated a certain viewpoint on INGO will resist an accurate synopsizing of that viewpoint by obfuscating with nuance

I thought he was making a joke about it. Especially the way he worded it. It's funny.

 

[KLB]

There is very much such things as "Independents". And we have seen this country go the same direction no mater what party is in charge. Me myself I hate republicans a whole lot less than I do democrats. So no washed up dem here. Plus I refuse to follow any political party off of a cliff because I believe both parties have been bought by the same people. What we the people see is pure political theater. However seeing the hate from both sides towards Trump is a sign to me that he isn't playing their games. Voting has always been figuring out who the more corrupt candidate is and voting for the other. Now I will admit that I have refused to vote for any dem since before obama. But that doesn't mean I have voted straight republican either. Just know that there are independents and we are more angry than vocal.

No no. You are just a liberal.

 

[Leadeye]

This no tax on tips thing is smart move. It can be contrasted directly against the college loan bailouts. I'm guessing it won't stop state governments from picking pockets though, at least for now.

 

[jamil]

I should follow Truth Social and put MAGA blinders on. Only believe good news for Trump, aye. It hasn't been a huge move, prob because the trial was non-sense and Biden is chasing his shadow and likely ******** his pants, but as I projected, we see him called Felon as often as possible in ads and on left-wing news and some* (CBS-You-Gov) polling has shown a swing in independents towards Biden. The only case with meat in it is the Florida document case, IMO. I think that one is successfully punted. None of this has to do with his undisciplined and idiotic comments about the host city for the convention and its tight state. I also think the Trump nonsense explains why Biden is at a low for approval ratings, and Trump isn't surging ahead further. I mean, the Dems are doing everything they can to help him out right now. But I'll take my record for accuracy here any day.

Like I said elsewhere, the lawfare is to at least have a few months before the election where every news outlet calls Trump a convicted felon as often as possible. It doesn't matter that it was a sham trial, or that it will be overturned on appeal. That's a couple years down the road. Until then, he's a convicted felon.

RCP is showing it hasn't really hurt Trump. But team Trump believes that it's driving hordes of voters to their side. The polls haven't born that out. The verdict has been out > 2 weeks. We see and hear about people switching to Trump, because of the sham trial. Maybe we don't see or hear about the people who've buried their heads in the sand to mitigate that because the net isn't changing much.

Maybe Democrats are disappointed. Trump lost only 2 points nationwide, which is within the usual margin of error. But then so did Biden. There hasn't been a net shift towards D's at all post election. Swing states stayed pretty much the same post-conviction too, at least for swing states that have poll numbers out since then.

On the other hand, team Trump is acting like this a big boon to his campaign. If being a convicted felon hasn't really hurt him, I guess that's helping him? Not sure I'd describe it as a boon. The needle has not moved beyond the margin of error. It looks to me like, people who were planning to vote for him before the election still are. Those against him before are still against him.

The conviction so far has been neither boom nor bust. It's a meh flavored nothingburger.

 

[jamil]

You keep saying the same things said about elections thirty to fifty years ago with no acknowledgement that this election is a battle for the direction of the country, quite possibly permanently. The electorate is recognizing this.

There are no such things as “independents” just washed out dems hiding the way they usually vote until it hits their wallet too deep…

The highlighted isn't completely false. Last polls I looked at showed the composition of independents. There are "leaning" dependents which faithfully vote in the direction they lean, i.e. Republican or Democrat. And then there are "true" independents, which are people who could vote for either Democrats or Republicans, depending on their perception of the issues. For example, someone who might vote Republican because they think the economy sucks and a Republican might do better, even Trump. But then end up voting Democrat because of news stories about Republicans wanting to jail women who get abortions.

Of the "leaning" independents the ones who lean D outnumber those who lean R, but not by a huge portion. And what pollsters described as "true" independents, make up about 30% of all that called themselves independents. But it's well supported that the "leaning" so-called independents reliably vote for the side they "lean" towards. They just don't like to call themselves R's or D's. The reason the pollsters attributed this to is that these are "least evil" voters. They hate the side they lean towards, but hate the other worse.

I think I fit into that category. I hate chamber-o-commerce/Neocon Republicans. They pretend to want to put America first but then vote behind closed doors otherwise. But when it comes to a choice between them and ClownWorld™ Democrats, well, which is least evil?

 

[indiucky]

We went bird hunting up at Jasper on state ground there for pheasants two years ago.. the taking of an "independent" is an illegal act punishable by fines due to provisions in the state's regulations regarding endangered species....

It's nice to see that INGO provides a safe haven for them to pontificate.....

You mods do the state DNR a great service....

God bless you.....

 

[jamil]

VA POTUS 2024 Memo

coefficient.org

View attachment 359253

As an example of what I said about independents, we wonder how anyone can be undecided at this point? That group would likely come from the "true" independents. I think to the extent that VA could possibly be on the table for Trump if the polling above is true, Trump owes a lot of his support from the "true" independents over the last few months. Voters still see Trump as more unfavorable than favorable. But Biden is off the charts worse. Maybe that even bodes similarly for the "leaning D" independents. Maybe they just need a little more time to resolve the cognitive dissonance that keeps them on team Geriatrics.

 

[jamil]

We went bird hunting up at Jasper on state ground there for pheasants two years ago.. the taking of an "independent" is an illegal act punishable by fines due to provisions in the state's regulations regarding endangered species....

It's nice to see that INGO provides a safe haven for them to pontificate.....

You mods do the state DNR a great service....

God bless you.....

The same pollsters that talked about the composition of people who call themselves "independents" also said that the "true" independents are dying. More are becoming "leaning" independents, which is to say, they're effectively Republican or Democrat.

I hate Republicans but I always vote for them because the other side sucks worse and is a danger to America. I'd stop hating Republicans if the party droped the chamber-o-commerce/Neocon crap, and excommunicates anyone in the party pushing those anti-American policies. The day the Republican party does that and becomes the official America-first party, is the day I'll sign up as a card carrying Republican.

 

[drillsgt]

Not only that, I would bet you he also believes that Thomas and Alito should recuse themselves from Trump's Jan 6 trial because they expressed support for Trump

Not sure why peeps think somehow they'll be the ones to get through to LeftyKutter. I don't think the man is here to argue the logic of his positions, he's just here to argue

View attachment 357061

LG is carrying the mantle for a long list of others that came before him lol.

 

[HKFaninCarmel]

There is very much such things as "Independents". And we have seen this country go the same direction no mater what party is in charge. Me myself I hate republicans a whole lot less than I do democrats. So no washed up dem here. Plus I refuse to follow any political party off of a cliff because I believe both parties have been bought by the same people. What we the people see is pure political theater. However seeing the hate from both sides towards Trump is a sign to me that he isn't playing their games. Voting has always been figuring out who the more corrupt candidate is and voting for the other. Now I will admit that I have refused to vote for any dem since before obama. But that doesn't mean I have voted straight republican either. Just know that there are independents and we are more angry than vocal.

Independents swung the race in 2016 red and 2020 blue. This isn’t hard. Look at counties that moved from blue to red to blue. That’s where they have sufficient size to swing a race. When I did ad targeting in 2018 and 2020, it was aimed right at every Obama county that voted for Trump. We also hit farmers and union workers, two traditionally D voting blocks that have moved our way. Independents are a thing...

As an example of what I said about independents, we wonder how anyone can be undecided at this point? That group would likely come from the "true" independents. I think to the extent that VA could possibly be on the table for Trump if the polling above is true, Trump owes a lot of his support from the "true" independents over the last few months. Voters still see Trump as more unfavorable than favorable. But Biden is off the charts worse. Maybe that even bodes similarly for the "leaning D" independents. Maybe they just need a little more time to resolve the cognitive dissonance that keeps them on team Geriatrics.

VA is on the table because the state has solid leadership within the Republican party and independents. MN is drifting red despite terrible statewide leadership because the DFL in Minnesota has gone wild since obtaining a trifecta, and the area outside the Twin Cities is getting deeper red. Independents are the ones responding.

Another interesting case study is the Arizona Senate race. As four-six other states create exciting opportunities for Republicans, Arizona is being flushed down the idiot toilet. We have a dud candidate and a complete failure of a state party in a state that voted for Trump in 2016 and has experienced the border crisis as much as anyone. The lady who demanded that Congress use mythical powers to reinstate Trump is doing wonders for the blue team. Republicans need to kick everyone in the party out in Arizona and start over.

 

[DadSmith]

Biden loses allies in Michigan battleground Macomb County as Trump plots comeback - Washington Examiner

President Joe Biden doesn't have the backing of influential Democrat Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel as Donald Trump courts Metro Detroit voters.

washingtonexaminer.com

 

[Shadow01]

A bully who never faces serious consequences for their actions will just continue to bully.
No one who has been executed has ever committed another crime.
Most violent criminals are career criminals. Letting them get away with their actions only lets them victimize more innocent people.
These are obvious truths, which for some reason, liberals fail to understand. Perhaps it is because they are the bullies, and recognize themselves as such.

Execution reduces recidivism of that offender to zero.

 

[BugI02]

RCP is showing it hasn't really hurt Trump. But team Trump believes that it's driving hordes of voters to their side. The polls haven't born that out. The verdict has been out > 2 weeks. We see and hear about people switching to Trump, because of the sham trial. Maybe we don't see or hear about the people who've buried their heads in the sand to mitigate that because the net isn't changing much.

Maybe the legacy media and their fellow traveler pollsters now feel the need to show Trump is losing support because of the conviction. Polling is just too easy to massage when the 'true' results are close. I saw someone on X trumpeting about polling in two battleground states that Trump/Biden was now a toss-up because they polled 'within the margin of error' in those states - as if that was significant. In both cases the results had Trump with a substantial lead, a fairly significant margin of error of 3.8% in one case and I don't recall the other except it was also between 3 and 4%, and every bit of that margin of error had to be applied to Biden's benefit to even get him close to Trump's numbers

I pretty much don't put that much faith in polling other than to perhaps highlight trends over time, although like everybody else I will quote ones that align with my prejudices occasionally

 

[greg]

 

[loudgroove]

No no. You are just a liberal.

How do you figure that?

 

[actaeon277]

Well, I can't speak for "polls", because we've seen how wrong they've been before.


But I just found out a niece is going to vote Trump.
And she was one of those screaming and crying when Trump was elected, claiming that people were killing themselves because of it, and Trump was going to lock everyone up.

I guess gaslighting only goes so far.

 

[KLB]

How do you figure that?

Mike said so

 

[loudgroove]

Mike said so

You might want to look at a career in comedy? Never mind. lol

 

[Magyars]

Brilliant!

"Freaking Brilliant New Trend": Write "Vote Trump, End Taxes On Tips!" On Server Checks | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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