The US Army could not withstand an insurgency

[BugI02]

You cannot have a civil war when there is no one to fight it. It's a silly notion born from some poster's secret desires to see it come to fruition. There is no evidence to support the idea that any more than a handful of people would be willing to actively participate in such an endeavor.

No evidence. No proof

Now, where have I heard THAT before

 

[BugI02]

I don't see civil war in this country, tax revolt maybe but no shooting. China is where I see civil war in the future. At some point enough people will say they want more control over their lives and after some jingoistic staged events the leadership will tell the men with the guns to start in killing. What happens then will determine how the civil war goes, like the USSR or like Kampuchea.

Unfortunately, the traditional way for a regime to short circuit such problems is to focus on an exterior enemy and usually wind up in a war with them

I'll say it again. Relations between the US and China are eerily reminiscent of relations between the US and Imperial Japan in the years leading up to Pearl Harbor, and likely IMO that trajectory will lead to the same place although it may not be a kinetic war

 

[Leadeye]

I'm thinking Argentina and the Falklands.

 

[BugI02]

I'm thinking Argentina and the Falklands.

I still like the US-Imperial Japan analogy better

A regime run by fanatics, convinced of their own superiority and inevitable place as a great power, rubbing sparks off of a US that talks tough, takes unpredictable positions and actions, and is thoroughly unprepared for war

 

[Denny347]

What like 3% give or take?

3% of 300 million? 9 million? I'm thinking maybe 30k at most. .1%

 

[maxipum]

3% of 300 million? 9 million? I'm thinking maybe 30k at most. .1%

Unfortunately you are probably correct.

 

[jsharmon7]

3% of 300 million? 9 million? I'm thinking maybe 30k at most. .1%

Society today is definitely not made up of the same kind of people it was in the 1770s. Violent internal conflict would be bad for everyone, so let’s hope we never go back there again.

 

[shibumiseeker]

3% of 300 million? 9 million? I'm thinking maybe 30k at most. .1%

What worries me more than the small percentage of folks who would actively participate is that the political climate of today means that it will require zealots to do the fighting and zealots are perfectly happy to sacrifice you to achieve their goals. And yes, some of them post here who will happily sacrifice anyone who is not in lockstep with their ideals. This is not something the “left” has a monopoly on.

For what it’s worth, zealots trying to sacrifice me and mine will find it very expensive to do so. I don’t care what the political side is.

 

[Twangbanger]

Right or wrong, I think the communists and their allies would be quite surprised if things go hot.

First we now have 20 years worth of recent combat veterans. I have yet to meet one who is not pro Constitution to some degree and anti leftist / communist (I know there are some, and I know being in Indiana skews the perception, but still...). That coupled with the National Guard members who just go militia with their gear, and the volunteer active duty soldiers that consider their Oath and decide; no, not on my watch. I just don't see the regime getting what they fantasize of.

Couple the above with older veterans and the legions of Americans who have actually read the Constitution and are willing to defend it, I envision the primary communist locales quickly devolving to high density urban areas which cannot survive 72 hours of a utility outage without the residents eating there own. The Patriots will be happy to oblige.

I certainly don't want resolution of the current dysfunction to come to violence. I am certain however that none of us will be absolutely prophetic in the outcome. It will surprise us all, and if violent be ugly in a way few of us can even conceive.

My preference would be that enough Americans are awakened by the last 6 years to take some action. Take their school, town, city, State, and Nation back. I think we will see in 2022. If School Boards turn over, many local elections are of individuals at least claiming to govern in accordance with their State and National Constitutions then there could be hope for a peaceful resolution. If not...

I bet you would be surprised how many ex-servicemembers vote democrat.

 

[Nazgul]

As others have posted, I feel if it occurs it will be a conflict between rural/urban Red/Blue areas. The problem I see is $. Our money is tied up in 401K's, Social Security, Bank accounts, etc. Any conflict of a large scale would effectively remove most or all of our money from our control. After the conflict is resolved we would be back to zero after a lifetime of work. Hopefully we would still own our property and houses.

The other issue is China, Russia and the Middle East waiting to exploit any internal turmoil. What that would involve is speculation. I could envision an attempt to occupy some of our territory. Whether it would be successful is again speculation.

We always tend to see the worst in these scenarios, things happening in Our Lifetime. Something to do with arrogance. Look at the oils spills, Exon Valdez comes to mind. The oil well fires in Iraq and Kuwait. The environment was never going to recover in Our Lifetime. We were going to have nuclear winter and all die. Global Warming is going to kill all of us as well. The truth is, individually we just aren't that important.

The US survived Clinton, Carter, Obama or any other a**hat President you can name. I agree the general mood is very contentious right now. However I think we just might survive this.....maybe.

Don

 

[churchmouse]

Americans for the most part are not the Americans of the 30s 40s or 50s. Hell we freak out if our favorite brand of ketchup is missing from the shelves.
Take a smart phone from a person under 40 and watch them go into internet withdrawal. What I'm saying is save for recent Veterans INGO Types.
Red white and blue Country Boys. I dont think there would be enough willingness amoung those of fighting age to do anything. Drive thru a college campus or urban city. Nothing but limp wristed Starbuck drinking I pad carrying Sissy Boys who probably never handled a tool other than there own. You could lead them to the concentration camp with the promise of wifi and a recliner.
I would love to believe we have the same grit as we once did. But we don't.
And thats just sad

Been saying this for a long time.

 

[churchmouse]

Unfortunately you are probably correct.

He is closer to the actual numbers and I think even the 1% falls short.
We have raised an entire generation of girly men neutered by the female of the species.

 

[cbhausen]

As others have posted, I feel if it occurs it will be a conflict between rural/urban Red/Blue areas. The problem I see is $. Our money is tied up in 401K's, Social Security, Bank accounts, etc. Any conflict of a large scale would effectively remove most or all of our money from our control. After the conflict is resolved we would be back to zero after a lifetime of work. Hopefully we would still own our property and houses.

The other issue is China, Russia and the Middle East waiting to exploit any internal turmoil. What they would involve is speculation. I could envision an attempt to occupy some of our territory. Whether it would be successful is again speculation.

We always tend to see the worst in these scenarios, things happening in Our Lifetime. Something to do with arrogance. Look at the oils spills, Exon Valdez comes to mind. The oil well fires in Iraq and Kuwait. The environment was never going to recover in Our Lifetime. We were going to have nuclear winter and all die. Global Warming is going to kill all of us as well. The truth is, individually we just aren't that important.

The US survived Clinton, Carter, Obama or any other a**hat President you can name. I agree the general mood is very contentious right now. However I think we just might survive this.....maybe.

don

Matthew Bracken’s essays cover your first paragraph pretty well. He asks where are you on the CW2 cube and what would happen if millions of EBT cards suddenly stopped working… not a pretty future if things go sideways.

 

[buckwacker]

Society today is definitely not made up of the same kind of people it was in the 1770s. Violent internal conflict would be bad for everyone, so let’s hope we never go back there again.

So is serfdom. Unfortunately it's looking more and more like those will be our only choices. Everyone loses because we live in a nation a mentally malleable morons.

 

[Thor]

I don't see civil war in this country, tax revolt maybe but no shooting. China is where I see civil war in the future. At some point enough people will say they want more control over their lives and after some jingoistic staged events the leadership will tell the men with the guns to start in killing. What happens then will determine how the civil war goes, like the USSR or like Kampuchea.

It's easier to gain compliance when you have an unarmed population and have shown in the past that you are willing to kill millions of your people (not citizens) to gain it. At some point their frustration may rise to the level of just can't take it anymore...but that's going to require some serious testosterone. So far they've put up with the Kung Flu lock-downs and muslim concentration camps, the overthrow of a free-ish Hong Kong, the projected overthrow of a free Taiwan and assuming control of the South China Sea.

Here, things might be different despite the Soi Bois that inhabit the cities; might be. Guns we've got.

 

[KellyinAvon]

Californians throwing confetti as Chinese tanks roll down the street.

Celebrating their own demise... sad but true statement.

 

[KellyinAvon]

I'm thinking Argentina and the Falklands.

The geographical separation or something else?

 

[Leadeye]

The geographical separation or something else?

More like the causes and effects. The government in Argentina was looking for something to keep the country's mind off of the lack of freedom combined with a bad economy. They captured the Falklands from the British and the country went wild with cheers for them, but the solution was only temporary. Having misjudged Maggie Thatcher, the British took them back and the government of Argentina promptly collapsed. The geographical separation while similar to Taiwan isn't a good comparison. The distance between the two areas and logistics involved to hold the islands is very different.

 

[KellyinAvon]

More like the causes and effects. The government in Argentina was looking for something to keep the country's mind off of the lack of freedom combined with a bad economy. They captured the Falklands from the British and the country went wild with cheers for them, but the solution was only temporary. Having misjudged Maggie Thatcher, the British took them back and the government of Argentina promptly collapsed. The geographical separation while similar to Taiwan isn't a good comparison. The distance between the two areas and logistics involved to hold the islands is very different.

Thanks! And I wasn’t thinking Taiwan, more like CONUS.

 

[Leadeye]

Thanks! And I wasn’t thinking Taiwan, more like CONUS.

Unless leadership on the west coast sells thier part of the country to the chinese, there no way they could support a modern army across the pacific. Only the USA has that kind of logistical muscle.