The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[BugI02]

GOP Debate in Salt Lake City is canceled. Confirmed by Salt palace Convention Center.




Yes. I am. That's what I said. Declaring you don't need to attend a debate is a smug move, signifying that you don't think it matters anymore.

I speculate. Any other painfully obvious commentary?

View attachment 45997 Rrr-r-o-w-w-l

 

[T.Lex]

Suppose we arrive at the convention with no one having 1237 delegates or more, but only one candidate satisfies 40(b). Could not a case be made that the candidate able to satisfy the other strictures in place should be the nominee?

Unless they change 40(b), I believe both Trump and Cruz qualify. Everyplace I look shows Cruz with either 7 or 8, and I think he'll take at least 1 more (probably Utah). There's a small chance Kasich could get there, but I doubt it.

But, to answer your question, that would be a compelling argument that Trump would make (early and often) that he deserved the nomination.

 

[BugI02]

Fox News source confirms March 21 GOP Debate cancelled, following Trump decision to back out.

I'm speculating that they'll cover an hour-long Trump speech instead.

How can you 'back out' of something you never agreed to in the first place. Begging the question

 

[jamil]

How Trump Can Be Stopped | The Weekly Standard



Hey, Indiana has a purpose in the Primary now? Imagine that!

Well, if May rolls around and it's still a race, I guess I'll go to the polls to put my not-trump vote in. Saving the nation still seems futile though.

 

[BugI02]

.

 

[T.Lex]

Saving the nation still seems futile though.

Says the guy with the Darth Vader avatar....

 

[BugI02]

How Trump Can Be Stopped | The Weekly Standard

"How to keep Trump under 1,100? Beat him in Utah, Wisconsin, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, California"

Hey, Indiana has a purpose in the Primary now? Imagine that!

Uh, I think they mean all of them. Good luck with that

 

[jamil]

Unless they change 40(b), I believe both Trump and Cruz qualify. Everyplace I look shows Cruz with either 7 or 8, and I think he'll take at least 1 more (probably Utah). There's a small chance Kasich could get there, but I doubt it.

But, to answer your question, that would be a compelling argument that Trump would make (early and often) that he deserved the nomination.

The rule says "majority of the delegates" from 8 states. Has Cruz done that? He didn't win a majority of delegates in all the states he's won. Just wondering if you know off hand so I don't have to look it up.

 

[BugI02]

Unless they change 40(b), I believe both Trump and Cruz qualify. Everyplace I look shows Cruz with either 7 or 8, and I think he'll take at least 1 more (probably Utah). There's a small chance Kasich could get there, but I doubt it.

But, to answer your question, that would be a compelling argument that Trump would make (early and often) that he deserved the nomination.

I have Cruz's count currently at 7. It's unlikely he wont get the eighth but makes for interesting speculation. The peripheral rules could become 'tiebreakers'

 

[jamil]

Says the guy with the Darth Vader avatar....

 

[T.Lex]

Uh, I think they mean all of them. Good luck with that

Not-Trump doesn't need all of them. If you go back to my list (am I on everyone's ignore list now?) Not-Trump needs to win 4 or 5 of the 8 (or win elsewhere) to deny Trump the majority he needs. The list in GPIA7hunrhusnh's link is different, because it uses different assumptions. They are probably picking the ones they think Not-Trump will win.

 

[BugI02]

The rule says "majority of the delegates" from 8 states. Has Cruz done that? He didn't win a majority of delegates in all the states he's won. Just wondering if you know off hand so I don't have to look it up.

"Majority of delegates in at least eight states prior to the start of the convention" (so no horse trading unless you get it done early)

 

[BugI02]

Not-Trump doesn't need all of them. If you go back to my list (am I on everyone's ignore list now?) Not-Trump needs to win 4 or 5 of the 8 (or win elsewhere) to deny Trump the majority he needs. The list in GPIA7hunrhusnh's link is different, because it uses different assumptions. They are probably picking the ones they think Not-Trump will win.

Understood. Thxs

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Always liked Stephen Miller.

Donald Trump Opposes Free Speech, like PC Left

 

[T.Lex]

The rule says "majority of the delegates" from 8 states. Has Cruz done that? He didn't win a majority of delegates in all the states he's won. Just wondering if you know off hand so I don't have to look it up.

So, this is a decent resource:
2016 Delegate Count Tracker: 2016 Election - POLITICO

The "down arrow" at the far right of each candidate brings up more info. They have Cruz winning (getting more delegates than Trump) in: IA, AK, OK, TX, KS, ME, ID, GU, and WY. It has Cruz and Trump tying for LA.

 

[BugI02]

So, this is a decent resource:
2016 Delegate Count Tracker: 2016 Election - POLITICO

The "down arrow" at the far right of each candidate brings up more info. They have Cruz winning (getting more delegates than Trump) in: IA, AK, OK, TX, KS, ME, ID, GU, and WY. It has Cruz and Trump tying for LA.

But when the rule was changed from 5 to 8 (because Rand Paul) the language was specifically changed from plurality to majority. Just beating Trump wont cut it. The obverse is also true

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Cruz and Sanders considering recounts in Missouri

Close results in Missouri primary could lead to recounts | TheHill

 

[T.Lex]

But when the rule was changed from 5 to 8 (because Rand Paul) the language was specifically changed from plurality to majority. Just beating Trump wont cut it. The obverse is also true

In looking at the numbers quickly, I believe Cruz's totals in those states (and territory) represent majorities of delegates (which a candidate can win with a plurality of the vote). Not that it really matters on a go-foward basis because most of the states up for grabs are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most. Not Trump will have to actually win some combination of those states to deny them to Trump.

 

[chipbennett]

But when the rule was changed from 5 to 8 (because Rand Paul) the language was specifically changed from plurality to majority. Just beating Trump wont cut it. The obverse is also true

I believe Cruz has 3: Texas, Kansas, and Idaho.

 

[BugI02]

So I was wondering what happens if we arrive in Cleveland and 40(b) would exclude Cruz and/or Kasich? What I believe is 'the party' would just make an 'emergency' rule change to clear that hurdle. I am not aware of any rules or bylaws that would prevent them from doing so, unless something requires them to limit rule changes to the next election cycle and precludes retroactive changes