The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[T.Lex]

Running some quick numbers:
- there are 1,134 delegates still remaining
- Trump: 621, Cruz: 396; the Spoilers' Total: 327
- magic number = 1,237

Most of the next round (and really, the remaining) are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most. So, Cruz will have to actually win some states to keep apace. If they split the remaining delegates, Trump only ends up with ~1,200.

IMHO, Utah and Arizona on March 22 are really litmus tests. Those total 98 delegates (AZ = winner take all, UT = winner take most), but will be much more meaningful than that. Cruz will have to win that day to prove that he can win the middle of the country.

After that, the primaries take an East Coast swing and I fully expect Trump to run the table. Cruz will have to seriously overachieve to make a dent there.

Same concepts expressed here:
Trump risks falling short of delegate count for nomination | TheHill

 

[ArcadiaGP]

44% of non-Trump supporters who voted say they would not support Trump in November

Hello President Clinton.

Mini Super Tuesday Republican Exit Poll Analysis - ABC News

 

[jamil]

This is what gets me about hearing pundits talk about the math. I heard some airhead trying to guarantee a contested convention say that Trump needed to win 60% of the remaining delegates and that he'd have to step it up since he's only been on a 40% pace. That really implies that he'd have to increase his public support to that. But he won 100% of the delegates in Florida without even winning a majority of the support.

so you're right. If trump wins enough of the remaining states he could easily win the nomination outright only having a plurality of votes.

Running some quick numbers:
- there are 1,134 delegates still remaining
- Trump: 621, Cruz: 396; the Spoilers' Total: 327
- magic number = 1,237

Most of the next round (and really, the remaining) are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most. So, Cruz will have to actually win some states to keep apace. If they split the remaining delegates, Trump only ends up with ~1,200.

IMHO, Utah and Arizona on March 22 are really litmus tests. Those total 98 delegates (AZ = winner take all, UT = winner take most), but will be much more meaningful than that. Cruz will have to win that day to prove that he can win the middle of the country.

After that, the primaries take an East Coast swing and I fully expect Trump to run the table. Cruz will have to seriously overachieve to make a dent there.

Same concepts expressed here:
Trump risks falling short of delegate count for nomination | TheHill

 

[Kutnupe14]

44% of non-Trump supporters who voted say they would not support Trump in November

Hello President Clinton.

Mini Super Tuesday Republican Exit Poll Analysis - ABC News

I have an uneasy feeling the GOP is going to sabotage Trump.

 

[chipbennett]

Are we not 'the party' in microcosm. Jamil correctly points out what he sees as a shortcoming of the current system and I proffer a possible adjustment. As far as what the party determines, reread the last sentence of the referenced post

Unless "we" are at least a precinct chair/committee member, then "we" are not the party; we're just participants. We don't make rules or cast votes for party formation, organization, or convention. Taking over the GOP through a grassroots effort is possible, but difficult, and long-term (perhaps generational).

 

[T.Lex]

I have an uneasy feeling the GOP is going to sabotage Trump.

I'm not sure "they" can.

First, still a decent chance Trump can get the 1,237. That closes the chapter on a contested convention.

If they drop the 8-state rule, then it becomes an open field for candidates who dropped out or never ran. But, they will still need a stalking horse that can get a majority of the delegates. I don't see that candidate out there (barring a Reagan resurrection). If the GOP had that candidate, he (or she) would be running. Trump will be at the convention in all his bullying glory, so he still has a good shot in that scenario.

If they add some sort of rule to DQ him, even I would have an issue with that.

 

[chipbennett]

This certainly hurts Cruz. If he could have taken Ohio he'd be sitting much better than he is currently.

I would not be surprised if Cruz and Kasich were on the phone right now cutting some type of deal for Kasich to drop out.

BTW, can we change the title of this thread now? Something to the effect of, "The Republican primary race is thinning out."

I heard on INGO that such deal-making is the lowest form of low - at least, if Trump and Carson are allegedly involved.

 

[chipbennett]

Kasich is having a great speech. I can see him being a real contender now. With Rubio out he can seriously challenge in the more moderate future primaries.

He needs to, you know, actually be on the ballot in the remaining states first.

 

[chipbennett]

Romney/Kasich 2016?


ETA: I wish I could be certain I'm just being sarcastic and not clairvoyant

I haven't had enough coffee yet, so my wild ideas are full of extra wild.

What if Kasich is staying in the race on purpose? Trump/Kasich 2016?

 

[seedubs1]

What, are they going to have Boehner come out and denounce him next

I have an uneasy feeling the GOP is going to sabotage Trump.

 

[chipbennett]

That would kick ass, since we all know it was Romney holding him back in 2012.

His dismal performance against Biden (Biden!) in the VP debate was an anomaly, too.

Another guy trying to be the smartest person in the room when someone is kicking him in the balls. ON WISCONSIN!

Edit: His job at present was to have more votes than Trump, Cruz and Kasich. This isn't a morality play, it is a primary election. This is like saying, "The Panthers would have beaten the Patriots..." which doesn't matter because the Patriots couldn't beat the Broncos. It is inconsequential, ultimately.

Paul Ryan can get back to us when he actually passes a federal budget.

 

[chipbennett]

... Trump warns of possible 'riots' if he doesn't get White House nomination.

Borderline inciting. Marching orders for his drooling followers.

 

[Spear Dane]

I haven't had enough coffee yet, so my wild ideas are full of extra wild.

What if Kasich is staying in the race on purpose? Trump/Kasich 2016?

He is very definitely staying in on purpose and looking for a brokered convention down the road. He's the only candidate left the apparatus doesn't hate.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

When "Black Lives Matter" warns of riots if they don't get what they want, we call them thugs. What's it called when Trump does it?

 

[chipbennett]

When "Black Lives Matter" warns of riots if they don't get what they want, we call them thugs. What's it called when Trump does it?

Am I to believe that you honestly believe that Trump was issuing "marching orders" for people to riot? Or is it more likely that this is yet another example of everything Trump says being spun well past the point of absurdity?

 

[pudly]

Am I to believe that you honestly believe that Trump was issuing "marching orders" for people to riot? Or is it more likely that this is yet another example of everything Trump says being spun well past the point of absurdity?

You do realize who you just responded to, right?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Boehner just endorsed Ryan for President

Boehner backs Paul Ryan for president - POLITICO

 

[miguel]

[video=youtube;AjzXY2RE5uk]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjzXY2RE5uk[/video]

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Trump will skip Fox debate, essentially declares election over

BREAKING: Donald Trump To Skip Fox Debate | RedState

 

[Kutnupe14]

Am I to believe that you honestly believe that Trump was issuing "marching orders" for people to riot? Or is it more likely that this is yet another example of everything Trump says being spun well past the point of absurdity?

Bernie Sanders is lying when he says his disruptors aren't told to go to my events. Be careful Bernie, or my supporters will go to yours!

How else does one interpret this?