The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[Landon]

It appears to me that it's now a clear two man race. Rubio is done, put a fork in him, he didn't get enough votes in any state yesterday to even qualify for a portion of delegates. Apparently having the GOPe back you is a certain death to your candidacy this primary.

 

[T.Lex]

Idaho surprised me. Last poll I could see had Trump +11 (~2x the MOE). That could end up a precursor to a beltline strategy that Cruz uses in flyover country. The field (mostly Rubio) has enough delegates to play spoiler and cause a brokered convention, if Cruz can win most of the rest of the middle of the country.

Florida and Ohio still hold the keys, though.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Rubio camp accuses Cruz of 'dirty tricks' over Hawaii 'dropout' email | Fox News

 

[pudly]

Given their performance in the four primaries yesterday, maybe they should take the idea of dropping out more seriously.

 

[chipbennett]

Idaho surprised me. Last poll I could see had Trump +11 (~2x the MOE). That could end up a precursor to a beltline strategy that Cruz uses in flyover country. The field (mostly Rubio) has enough delegates to play spoiler and cause a brokered convention, if Cruz can win most of the rest of the middle of the country.

Florida and Ohio still hold the keys, though.

I suspect that Idaho has more to do with the heavy Mormon population in that state, and that population's response to Romney's idiotic speech. The heavily-Mormon precincts in Idaho went heavily Cruz last night.

 

[Landon]

I don't see a path to 1,237 for Cruz. He would have to be able to win at least one of the large winner take all delegate states. Which one? I don't see him taking Florida, Ohio, New York, Illinois, or California.

 

[jamil]

I suspect that Idaho has more to do with the heavy Mormon population in that state, and that population's response to Romney's idiotic speech. The heavily-Mormon precincts in Idaho went heavily Cruz last night.

Has it occurred to you that Trump may not be as popular as some of his victories imply? This is yet another closed primary state that didn't go for Trump. By a lot. Trump wins when Democrats get to vote for Republicans. Again I'll ask, do you really think all those democrats voting for republicans will vote for the republican in the general election?

 

[T.Lex]

I suspect that Idaho has more to do with the heavy Mormon population in that state, and that population's response to Romney's idiotic speech. The heavily-Mormon precincts in Idaho went heavily Cruz last night.

Ah - that could be. Wallowing in my microaggression, I forget about Mormon concentrations outside of Utah. I guess that suggests, though, that Utah could go Cruz, too. Not that it helps much.

I don't see a path to 1,237 for Cruz. He would have to be able to win at least one of the large winner take all delegate states. Which one? I don't see him taking Florida, Ohio, New York, Illinois, or California.

I generally agree, but I think Cruz has a chance in Illinois, if the Dems vote in their own contested primaries. He should hope that Sanders stays in and gives them a reason not to cross over. NY will go to Trump, and so will California, I'm guessing.

Florida and Ohio are going to be key - no newsflash there.

Basically, though, Cruz is going to have to keep pulling off some upsets and win some states to get a majority. The more rational path is a brokered convention.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Has it occurred to you that Trump may not be as popular as some of his victories imply? This is yet another closed primary state that didn't go for Trump. By a lot. Trump wins when Democrats get to vote for Republicans. Again I'll ask, do you really think all those democrats voting for republicans will vote for the republican in the general election?

67% disapproval, last I saw.

 

[chipbennett]

Has it occurred to you that Trump may not be as popular as some of his victories imply? This is yet another closed primary state that didn't go for Trump. By a lot. Trump wins when Democrats get to vote for Republicans. Again I'll ask, do you really think all those democrats voting for republicans will vote for the republican in the general election?

Hawaii is a caucus state.

 

[T.Lex]

I think this is already turning out to be a singularly bad year for polling. Cruz's upsets would be Exhibit A.

But, I think it is clear that Trump is attracting cross-overs. And not the Limbaugh Operation Chaos (or whatever he called it) cross-overs - people who genuinely think Trump is a good candidate. Perhaps he's getting people who were not otherwise registered, like Obama did in 2008.

It is interesting to look at the raw vote counts in the primary states. Assuming it those same numbers vote the same way, it'll be close.

 

[Landon]

But, I think it is clear that Trump is attracting cross-overs. And not the Limbaugh Operation Chaos (or whatever he called it) cross-overs - people who genuinely think Trump is a good candidate. Perhaps he's getting people who were not otherwise registered, like Obama did in 2008.

I'm not buying into the theory that mass droves of Dems are showing up to vote for Trump to ensure a Clinton/Trump general either. I do think some may do that, but I don't believe people are generally wired to show up and vote during a Republican primary just for that sole purpose.

 

[chipbennett]

I think this is already turning out to be a singularly bad year for polling. Cruz's upsets would be Exhibit A.

Polling is certainly not reliable, but it is never THAT bad, all in the same direction. (And polling in caucus/closed primary states does attempt to control for the closed nature of the election.)

At some point, someone will look at the probability of a single candidate out-performing polling by 15-20%, in a particular type of election, and realize that chances that it is happening randomly are quite slim. Oklahoma and Kansas, in particular, do not pass the smell test. (And if Cruz hadn't pulled his dirty trick against Carson in Iowa, Trump would have won that state.)

 

[T.Lex]

Polling is certainly not reliable, but it is never THAT bad, all in the same direction. (And polling in caucus/closed primary states does attempt to control for the closed nature of the election.)

Just ask Thomas Dewey.

(Well, you can't, he's dead.)

But, I think Minnesota for Rubio was a surprise, if not an upset.

At some point, someone will look at the probability of a single candidate out-performing polling by 15-20%, in a particular type of election, and realize that chances that it is happening randomly are quite slim. Oklahoma and Kansas, in particular, do not pass the smell test. (And if Cruz hadn't pulled his dirty trick against Carson in Iowa, Trump would have won that state.)

I don't put any credit in the Carson thing in Iowa. No way Carson-voters-who-were-swayed made the difference there. It was arguably a dirty trick, or just playing hardball with a novice. Regardless, I don't see Cruz having the right connections or infrastructure to commit mass fraud. Remember - he is not liked by the GOPe.

 

[Expat]

Chuck Todd was on the Today Show this morning talking about the poll problems. He said he was going to talk to his pollsters about it as it was becoming clear that the sampling they are using for Trump's voters is incorrect.

 

[T.Lex]

Chuck Todd can kiss my asterisk.

 

[chipbennett]

Regardless, I don't see Cruz having the right connections or infrastructure to commit mass fraud. Remember - he is not liked by the GOPe.

Ted Cruz IS Establishment. He's a product of the Bush machine.

 

[T.Lex]

Ted Cruz IS Establishment. He's a product of the Bush machine.

Well, I'm just saying that a whole bunch of people in the GOPe REALLY don't like him.

 

[Expat]

Well, I'm just saying that a whole bunch of people in the GOPe REALLY don't like him.

Even Trump says Cruz is hated universally by his colleagues in the Senate. I don't recall any other Senators ever declaring their party leader a liar from he well of the Senate.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Fiorina just endorsed Cruz