SHTF side thoughts evaluation

[the1kidd03]

There are a LOT of different thoughts on pretty much everything regarding prepping and survival. There is essentially no "right" or "wrong" way for most things. For the most part it's a matter of personal situation (home location, budget, etc.) weighed against what dangers someone feels to be the most likely to threaten them. Such a difference recently brought up a conversation and so I pose it here for evaluation.

The idea is that of "bugging in" vs "bugging out." The belief is that if the S was to HTF SO bad that you could not remain in place at your home where most of your supplies are and unable to defend it properly, then it is highly unlikely that you will be able to return to it at all in any sort of reasonable amount of time, if ever.

What would you say to this theory? Do you agree? Why or why not? Essentially, this would be a foundation for many of your preps. Such a belief would completely throw out the theory of the "72 hour BOB" in most cases for instance.

What say you?

 

[shibumiseeker]

False premise.

If you look at historical SHTF, in almost all cases in the US (with a very few notable and isolated exceptions), people have been able to return. Even in places where the entire town was wiped out, you could return. May not be anything there because of fire, tornado, or flooding, but that was due to a lack of proper planning for such events. You can always package or prepare supplies to be more resistant to such things.

Now, if you are preparing for the mythical TEOTWAWKI then that line of thinking has some level of validity, but that has little basis in recent (last couple hundred years) history in the US.

My belief is that people should prepare for the most likely probabilities first as those preps automatically make you more prepared for the unlikely.

 

[eldirector]

I agree.

Recent examples where bugging-out was the only option, and the likelihood of returning to in intact home was pretty small:
- Katrina
- the fires in Colorado
- flooding along the Mississippi (and I can think of some more local flooding events)
- The tornadoes in southern Indiana (and the ones that happen in the plains every year)
- and the most likely of all: your house burning down (370,000 house fires in 2011). Could be a lightning strike, faulty wiring, cooking fire, or that cigarette you THOUGHT was out.

Luckily, the LIKELY bug-out events are somewhat local/regional. A 72-hour "bag" should get you out of danger and into a better situation (with family out-of-state, for instance).

It ain't all zombies and economic collapse.....

 

[koutsevil]

One would almost need to plan for multiple bug in/out sites. You would always have a bag that would get you home from work, 72 hour bag. To plan for not having a home to bug in to, one would need a second bug in site. This way you could go to your house and stay there or pick up larger amount of supplies and bug out or go to a second site and bug in or stock up and bug out.

Prepping is to be as ready as possible in my opinion. If I lived in town, a flood plain, or tornado area, the possibility of not having a bug in site would be possible. Stashing a bug out bag at a friends house in country away from town problems and flood plain would be beneficial. Most houses have somewhere to stash supplies that would not be destroyed.

 

[the1kidd03]

You can always package or prepare supplies to be more resistant to such things.

Brings up an interesting question for me. Having just bought a house, my wife and I are finally able to begin storage preps. Are the 5 gallon buckets and that standard method of packing water resistant/proof/submersible? I never thought of that before. Has it been tested/tried?

TEOTWAWKI = "The End Of The World".....remind me of the rest??

 

[the1kidd03]

One would almost need to plan for multiple bug in/out sites. You would always have a bag that would get you home from work, 72 hour bag. To plan for not having a home to bug in to, one would need a second bug in site. This way you could go to your house and stay there or pick up larger amount of supplies and bug out or go to a second site and bug in or stock up and bug out.

Prepping is to be as ready as possible in my opinion. If I lived in town, a flood plain, or tornado area, the possibility of not having a bug in site would be possible. Stashing a bug out bag at a friends house in country away from town problems and flood plain would be beneficial. Most houses have somewhere to stash supplies that would not be destroyed.

Is there a site which you can easily view maps of known flood plains? Now I'm curious.

 

[eldirector]

Is there a site which you can easily view maps of known flood plains? Now I'm curious.

https://msc.fema.gov/webapp/wcs/sto...eView?storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&langId=-1

 

[the1kidd03]

https://msc.fema.gov/webapp/wcs/sto...eView?storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&langId=-1

Awesome, thanks. This will be helpful as we begin searching for "recreational" property.

 

[JollyMon]

TEOTWAWKI = "The End Of The World".....remind me of the rest??

As we know it.

 

[the1kidd03]

As we know it.

Yeah, I got it last minute. Brain fart.

 

[teddy12b]

AWKI = as we know it.

There's reasons to leave your home with what you can, and there's reasons to stay put and hunker down. We have three kids under 5. I don't have any false ideas of us all turning into commando's when the lights turn off and all of us humping 60# large alice rucks for 20 miles per day. We're staying home if at all possible, but if a Nuke plant upwind has an earthquake right underneath it and we need to leave, then we're going to leave. Most of the long term preps at the house are kept in containers that are easily moved and packed. When we all load into the minivan there will be some totes & duffle bags getting tossed in there as well. I pack all my long term stay home preps in sizes and weights that allow them to be moved quickly if need be.

 

[the1kidd03]

AWKI = as we know it.

There's reasons to leave your home with what you can, and there's reasons to stay put and hunker down. We have three kids under 5. I don't have any false ideas of us all turning into commando's when the lights turn off and all of us humping 60# large alice rucks for 20 miles per day. We're staying home if at all possible, but if a Nuke plant upwind has an earthquake right underneath it and we need to leave, then we're going to leave. Most of the long term preps at the house are kept in containers that are easily moved and packed. When we all load into the minivan there will be some totes & duffle bags getting tossed in there as well. I pack all my long term stay home preps in sizes and weights that allow them to be moved quickly if need be.

Sounds like our plans, but without the kids....yet.

 

[shibumiseeker]

Brings up an interesting question for me. Having just bought a house, my wife and I are finally able to begin storage preps. Are the 5 gallon buckets and that standard method of packing water resistant/proof/submersible? I never thought of that before. Has it been tested/tried?

TEOTWAWKI = "The End Of The World".....remind me of the rest??

Good 5 gallon buckets with good lids are resistant to a lot. I may or may not have some supplies buried in 6" sealed PVC tubes, and some in metal ammo cans.

What I learned from my house fire is to not have everything concentrated in one spot. Mine was a total loss, but luckily I have several outbuildings that had tools and other supplies. I now have things in multiple redundant locations with some off-site as well. This winter we picked up 5 acres in Kentucky and will be working on a small house there as well since we go down there all the time.

Packaging things in grab and go containers is also a good idea, as is having each container have a little of everything instead of grouping all containers as bulk storage only. Our staples containers have some rice, beans, sugar, cooking oil, matches, salt and pepper and a few other durable spices and a cooking pot. Many of them have a few other things as well, but it's a better strategy than having just one bucket of rice and one of beans.

 

[the1kidd03]

Good 5 gallon buckets with good lids are resistant to a lot. I may or may not have some supplies buried in 6" sealed PVC tubes, and some in metal ammo cans.

What I learned from my house fire is to not have everything concentrated in one spot. Mine was a total loss, but luckily I have several outbuildings that had tools and other supplies. I now have things in multiple redundant locations with some off-site as well. This winter we picked up 5 acres in Kentucky and will be working on a small house there as well since we go down there all the time.

Do you know the root cause of your fire? I take it that is consumed the entire place....or you meant that you lost most preps from concentration?

We have multiple storage locations in the home. We have a more than adequate BOL as well. We need to work on some remote site storage between our home and the BOL, though. We aren't home a large portion of the day though. If a fire were to break out, we would be completely relying on neighbors who might be home and the alarm system once I replace the board.

I'm getting the 5 gallon buckets, but haven't yet decided on the value/cost of the "gamma" lids vs the standard cheapy lids.

 

[the1kidd03]

Packaging things in grab and go containers is also a good idea, as is having each container have a little of everything instead of grouping all containers as bulk storage only. Our staples containers have some rice, beans, sugar, cooking oil, matches, salt and pepper and a few other durable spices and a cooking pot. Many of them have a few other things as well, but it's a better strategy than having just one bucket of rice and one of beans.

That's a solid strategy. Even makes for a good "grab and go" bucket if you're in a hurry, or small expedient caches even.

 

[shibumiseeker]

Do you know the root cause of your fire?

No real clue, it started when no one was home and burned to the ground unwitnessed. I know it wasn't arson as there was snow on the ground with no tracks. We're WAY back in the woods so no one to call the FD.

Now the house is where we sleep, cook, etc. Some preps are stored in the house, some are stored in various outbuildings, and my shooting/reloading building is concrete. We also have numerous caches of basics in locations within a day or two hike from home and some between home and places we regularly go.

 

[LtScott14]

Fire is no doubt a bad thing. Extended power outs, even with a generator, can be brutal. Natural gas failure, almost never. Add on drifted roads, ice storm, or severe winds/thunderstorm. All = SHTF. You should have a couple of options, but realize staying is probably safer than going. We have portable packed preps, I review and seal all with either Gorilla Tape/ or 357 Nashua Duct Tape. You almost cannot rip or tear either. I believe most homes can extend your storage by keeping stuff dry. Keep a couple of tarps and bungees handy/rope/paracord to wrap or "lean to" if needed. We have had some 3-4 day outages(ice storm vs power lines down), and although we stayed, who could predict how far away we had to go to be safe and warm? That is the issue with kids and Senior Citizens as well. Better have a minimum of $500.00 in cash to leave. Will debits/charge work? Good Luck.

 

[the1kidd03]

No real clue, it started when no one was home and burned to the ground unwitnessed. I know it wasn't arson as there was snow on the ground with no tracks. We're WAY back in the woods so no one to call the FD.

Now the house is where we sleep, cook, etc. Some preps are stored in the house, some are stored in various outbuildings, and my shooting/reloading building is concrete. We also have numerous caches of basics in locations within a day or two hike from home and some between home and places we regularly go.

Yeah, the caches are difficult for me. Luckily, my BOL (if needed) isn't all that far away. Maybe about a 30-45 minute drive. I can cache there, but really no other place aside from public and accessible land.

 

[Slawburger]

... Better have a minimum of $500.00 in cash to leave. Will debits/charge work? Good Luck.

No electricity means the pumps at the gas station don't work either. Good idea to keep plenty of gas in your vehicle.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

I have no specific historical incidents to provide for my opinion, but: It's easier to stay home because your preps can remain stored until you need them. Unless you own a semi-tractor/trailer you probably don't have enough transportation to move ALL your preps - unless you're just starting out. I don't think it's realistic to say to yourself: We'll defend this place to the death, because unless you have physical impediments to evacuation, you probably will if things get bad enough. If you have to evacuate due to conditions causing widespread civil disorder/societal breakdown, your cached preps (anything you can't take with you) probably won't be there if you make it back.

SO: Probably better have a plan for getting home from work, church, anywhere else in the local area; probably better have a home-defense/bug-in plan; probably better have a good idea of what conditions will encourage/demand that you evacuate to somewhere else, and you'd probably better have a load-plan with alternates in the (likely) event you have to abandon your transportation and use "shank's mare" to reach your intended destination.

And, if you're either a fanatic prepper or extremely lucky, you'll have evacuation destinations at all points of the compass.